Gallup has swallowed the Koolaid and is now asking for seconds and thirds. It is assuming a 64% turnout (not seen in any election going back at least as far as 1960) and lots of blacks coming out of nowhere to vote for Obama.
As I read their write-up, they further assume that turnout on election day will be 39D (with 90% party support), 31I, and only 26R. Yes, I typed that right. Oh, and Obama wins the Independents 48-43.
By the way, this is totally contrary to what Gallup has been saying in its weekly internals that I used to trust so much. Those party IDs were bad enough, but at least they measured registered voters and I was free to accept or reject them. Incidentally, the party ID for the last breakdown by party ID was
Dems 41.3 (4.3 oversample from 2004)
GOP 32.2 (4.8 undersample from 2004)
Ind 26.5 (0.5 oversample from 2004)
Anyhow, I really don’t have any response to all this other than to dismiss it and wonder of Gallup is on the take. Seriously.
The original 60% turnout model was predicated on a flood of new young voters and minorities (mostly blacks) who were going to vote overwhelmingly for Obama. Gallup has since admitted a few days ago that the yoots are NOT going to vote in significantly higher numbers than four years ago. Fine. I could have told them that months ago. But then why are they increasing their turnout model another 5%??
Answer: black voters, who supposedly are going to vote in so many numbers that they make up for all those yoots who would rather spend this Tuesday at the mall or whatever than voting for Obama. Gallup projects black turnout at 11 percent of the electorate. Well, guess what. Black turnout was at 11 percent in 2004! It’s true, check it out. Kerry won by big margins in big blue states with lots of black people. Now Obama might win by the same or even bigger margins in these same states. Or maybe not.
But it gets better. Gallup now projects that Obama will get 97%(!) black support from likely voters. That’s right: 97% of likely voters. [Insert “that’s racist!” here....but I digress.] And I’m now calling BS on this — I studied those Gallup internals every week and for weeks Obama polled consistently between 89% and 91% for blacks among REGISTERED voters (who are likely to be more Democratic than likely voters). Here, see for yourself:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx
Which brings me to the hispanic vote. Gallup doesn’t make any claim that Hispanics will also turn out in record numbers from nowhere to vote for Obama. But it does claim in its final writeup that Obama is winning 73% of Hispanics. Again, I’m calling BS. Look at the link above. Obama scored consistently between 60-65% among Hispanics who were REGISTERED voters, not slightly more Republican likely voters.
The one good thing to take out of this load of horse manure is Gallup’s statement that McCain leads among white voters 51-44 — even with that totally nutty D39, 26R, 31I split. It is possible, even likely, that with a reality based split, McCain is much closer to Bush’s 58-41 performance of four years ago.
Also, I find it strangely encouraging that in a poll that oversamples Democrats relative to Republicans by a whopping 13 points, Obama still has only a 11 point lead, and even that only after Gallup allocated the remaining undecideds evenly.
Thank you for that great analysis.
Come Wednesday, either Gallup or FReepers will look like fools.
I think it’s the former.
;)
PS
Now that Gallup has stolen the spotlight with this poll, I wonder if Zobgy will release a poll showing Obama ahead 15 to get some thunder back?
In LV, they have D 39, R 29, I 31 split. So, it’s D +10, and McCain running behind the Party ID gap.
Regarding black vote - they simply allocated undecideds to Obama. 97-1 is still a stunner, but 96-3 is entirely possible. +50 in Hispanic vote is very suspect, but I would buy a +35 estimate.
So, assume McCain is +14 in white vote (twice the Gallup margin, and btw R2000 poll by Kos shows him +14 there) and -60 in non-white vote (not -70). Then he loses by 5% or so.
Gallup chose to double down on its bets, though.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus