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Congratulations, President . . . McCain
self | 11/1/08 | LS

Posted on 11/01/2008 4:44:51 PM PDT by LS

These are words that are, actually, somewhat difficult for me to say. John McCain wasn't my favorite candidate in the primaries. For the better part of eight years, he's been on the wrong side of many crucial issues. So I am not making this prediction based on any love of my former Arizona senator. (And forgive me for a slightly windy post, but I want to provide evidence for my congratulatory note.)

A week ago ("Don't Look Now . . . But There Won't Be an Obama Swag-Bag"), I warned that the numbers in the early voting were not sufficient for the Messiah to win---not in Colorado, not in Florida, and at the time, barely enough to carry California. Since then, the numbers in CO have improved for Obama, but in my view not nearly enough. The numbers in Florida remain daunting for him, and California still is stunningly close in terms of Democrat/Republican splits. Based on that, and some other factors, I predicted there would be no Obama victory, and no Obama "Swag-Bag." (Did anyone see the Obama voter who said the Messiah would pay off her mortgage and pay for her gas!?)

The developments in the past week have, if anything, strengthened my conviction that McCain will be inaugurated next January.

High numbers of undecideds remain in the major national polls. According to Dick Morris, "An undecided has already decided not to vote for Obama." While his claim that undecideds---based on a FOX poll---would go for McCain at a clip of 7:1 is, I think, exaggerated, our own Freeper kesg has made a similar argument. It's all about what he calls the 'death line' of 48% for Obama. In only a couple of polls, with drastic manipulations involving oversampling of Democrats, has Obama crossed that line.

Even National Review's anonymous sage "Obi Wan" doesn't seem to fully appreciate the significance of Obama's inability to "close the deal" at that number.

Then there is the completely un-discussed (save for conservative sites) phenomenon of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos." This was real, it registered thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of temporary Democrat voters who are "coming home." Then there are the disaffected Hillary voters---call them PUMAs, if you will---but they do constitute some percentage of the Democrat electorate that the media has been entirely unwilling to acknowledge. Sources tell me that while MI will still land firmly in Obama's column, his lead there has been cut by shocking levels due almost entirely to a scorched earth policy by the PUMAs and the 527s.

Taken together, however, these two groups of "Democrats" (one faux, one real but angry) are tiny compared to the number of white Democrats who think their party has been hijacked by a terrorist. Again, to the drive-by media, such people don't exist. To admit they were real---let alone in numbers---would destroy the entire mythos of the "surge in voter registrations." I'll say more of this in a moment, but for now, I predict---out on a limb here---that Obama will barely come close to Kerry's 2004 Democrat support number.

What does all this mean for the states? With indies breaking at a far higher rate for McCain than Obama, and with large segments of the Democrats voting Republican, you are likely to see both a very high level of Republican support for McCain (probably in the 90s), combined with a significant level of Dem support and late breaking independents. That breaks down to:

*CO will be Republican by about 2 points.

*NV will be a 2 point or better final for McCain.

*MO will be a 4 or 5 point McCain win.

*NM will end up a 2-point McCain loss.

*We will bring in OH at 2 or 3 points---better than Bush did in 04.

*FL will be a double digit McCain lead. GA and NC won't be that close.

*Here's the clincher: the southern part of VA, combined with the west, will give McCain a 1- to 2-point win in the Old Dominion.

*I won't predict NH, IA, or PA. These are very, very close. If I had to guess, I'd say McCain wins NH, loses PA by razor thin margins---but there's that darned "Bradley Effect," and it is real, and it may well bring PA along.

There are other dynamics at work that could, in fact, blow this open a tad for McCain (i.e., bring in IA, PA, NM, and even WI). First, GOPTrust is running $7 million---that's right, $7 million---in devastatingly effective Jeremiah Wright ads this weekend. McCain's support with the oldsters has been somewhat soft due to claims he'll "cut" Social Security, but these ads will scare the bejeezus out of them, and with good reason.

Second, Zogby's overnight not only had it a 1-point McCain lead, but noted that a very good Obama night was dropping off the rolling three-night average. Now, I know, it's the Zogs special sauce. Isn't IDB or Battleground supposed to be better? Well, it actually depends. I think Zogs has been so volatile because his poll has been extremely sensitive to rapid changes. The others have not been as, well, "emotional." Hence, they've stabilized (Battleground at under 4, IBD Tipp at 4 to 5). However, the McCain team said their polling showed that Obama lost ground with the infomercial. The polls didn't pick it up Friday because of the Halloween effect---families (otherwise known as Republican voters) were out with their kids. I think Zogs picked up that post-infomercial shift. Hello, Dickie Morris.

Battleground's "Battleground State" poll, in a little-reported item, noted that all the battleground states were within a point. It then did not define what these states were (hence, I think FL is excluded) but did include NM and IA. New Mexico? I thought Obama had this locked up in 2006!

Finally, the clincher in all this, as it has always been, is the white Democrat vote. And it was "early voting"---contrary to all conventional wisdom---where Obama lost the election. The drive-bys are obsessed with black turnout early (some indicators STILL don't convince me that it will equal Algore's 2000 level turnout, but I could be wrong on this, and it still won't matter).

The critical element of the "early" black vote that all pundits have missed is reflected in the Morris "7:1" comment. In normal elections, cameras go to polling places and show lines. High turnout, low turnout, but the crowds are almost always mixed. This year, "early" voting, combined with the emphasis on Obama's race (and he has run the most racist campaign since Bull Conner), the images have overwhelmingly been of . . . crowds of black voters.

By itself, this would disturb no one, until Obama begins to talk about "spreading the wealth around," and anyone making over (pick a number) $200,000 will see a "patriotic" tax increase and (feel a chill yet?) saying this will be a "transformational" election.

When the camera shots of the lines of black voters is combined with the rhetoric about "he's going to pay my mortgage and pay for my gas," working-class whites (indeed, everyone) starts to get a little antsy. No doubt, more than a few Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Missouri voters suddenly conjured up the Reconstruction images of "Birth of a Nation." "Do people on welfare really think after November 4 they will be moving into my house?" they ask. The House's hearings on nationalizing 401(k)s has percolated into the electorate, including the oldsters.

If I am proven right on November 5, and John McCain is elected president, it will be due to the incredibly stupid, wasteful ad spending by Obama for four months that was forgotten in the last 72 hours; it will be due the early voting that reinforced in the minds of the middle-class and white voters of all economic backgrounds that when Obama says he wants to "spread the wealth around," he really is coming for MY house.

And above all---let's give credit where credit is due---it will be because of a relentless performance by Sarah Palin, a brilliantly choreographed campaign by McCain's managers, and to the gritty, plodding but oh-so-successful turtle from Arizona.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; election; mccain; obama; palin; sarahpalin
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To: LS

We all gotta have dreams! I’ll call California for McCain, and will take the “Macaca” also!

Someone tell the Clintons that their legacy has gotten a lot better in the last 2 months!


61 posted on 11/01/2008 5:35:22 PM PDT by The Californian
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To: LS
Excellent post. I will put my rep on the line as well.

McCain will barely lose NJ.

62 posted on 11/01/2008 5:37:53 PM PDT by MattinNJ (Don't believe the hype. The polls are wrong)
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To: tpanther

I know. Something must be done. There has to be a way to sue these idiots for malpractice.


63 posted on 11/01/2008 5:38:13 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: LS
I will state again for those that have not seen it. McCain will win Ohio.

I have posted this before but needs to be reposted

As I listen to my patients gripe about the election. The TV is on in their room and it is just one obama/McCain ad after another here in Toledo,Oh. Toledo is 80% Democrat, union thug socialist.

I had this retired teacher public schools for 40 years tell me she has always voted democrat. She even thought carter was not that bad, "he just did not know how to delegate" ( loved Clinton ). She said she is not voting this year because she does not trust Obama he came up to fast and their is something just not right. Now I have had a lot a patients like her they are not going to vote for Obama, now they not going to vote for McCain either but Thad's normal here.

The difference between Clinton and Obama is that Clinton did not hate his country. The teacher I had as a patient was one of the most educated and well traveled people I had ever spoken with. I could have disused issues in a civil manner with her. However I do not bring up politics or debate with my patients it is not the place to do so. I just listen and nod, and sometimes agree ( even if they are dead wrong ).

I do think McCain is going to win Ohio. He will not win Toledo, but there will be enough democrats that just won't vote for Obama so that McCain wins the state. McCain is not my first choice but I do like Palin. If it were not for Obama I most likely would have voted third party to send a massage to the RNC. T. Package RN

I must add a up date in the recant days BO has had some big negatives.

The Toledo Police Department confirms that one of its records clerks has been charged with performing an unlawful search of Joe The Plumber’s records. That makes two Ohio government employees identified in the snooping case. (Obama donor Helen Jones-Kelly, director of the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, approved a separate search. More are being investigated.) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117929/posts.

2001 Obama Chicago Public Radio Interview - WBEZ.FM http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116088/posts"

Florida TV reporter Barbara West asked hard hitting questions of Joe Biden http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2114731/posts

I think even more people are turning against BO even Democrats ( not the cool aid drinkers but normal hard working citizens). This is big stuff and not easily swept under the rug even with a media that is in the tank for BO.

I have a friend that told me that his mother is voting for McCain/Palin. See always votes democrat his father may not vote and he always votes democrat. I had another patient two days ago ( 10- 30-08 )tell me he was a democrat and voting for McCain again I didn't bring it up part of my job is to just listen.

The RNC needs to get some of this is ad here at the end and hit hard in OH, FL, PA, CO, it will pay off big. Just my thoughts.

T. Package RN

64 posted on 11/01/2008 5:39:52 PM PDT by Total Package (TOLEDO, OHIO THE MRSA INFECTION IN THE STATE and the death of freedom)
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To: LS

There is no excuse, but fraud, for networks to call a race prematurely. They have access to the data which shows the numbers of likely voters in each precinct and their party breakdown. They also have access to the numbers of voters who have voted early and their party breakdown. Heck, we already know a lot of that now.

They will know if 50% of voters in Cleveland have voted early, e.g. They will also know what % of those voters go D and R. They will know what is yet to come in for the rest of the state based on past elections and know it’s going to be red, red, red.

I know Michael Barone will not let FOX call anything early.


65 posted on 11/01/2008 5:41:35 PM PDT by randita
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To: LS

I am in complete agreement with you, LS. We’re going to win this.


66 posted on 11/01/2008 5:41:41 PM PDT by sarasota
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To: yldstrk; LS

That is where I am at right now, hope for the best and keep our powder dry until the returns come in, I’ve superstitious.


67 posted on 11/01/2008 5:42:27 PM PDT by Arizona Carolyn
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To: The Californian
Given me a deep, personal admiration for Bill and Hillary Clinton. Every time I see Bill stick the knife into Obama, I think “Mr. President, you are STILL doing all that you can to defend America!”

That is funny and so true. His last one in Florida was just so masterful.

68 posted on 11/01/2008 5:42:57 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Senator Goldwater

Also 0bama asking everyone to take Election Day off. For one thing, it more than annoyed managers who are now wondering how many calloffs they’re going to get (talk radio had callers urging other callers to use a sick day) and second of all, the whole idea had an “Oh, brother” reaction to it in my neck of the woods.


69 posted on 11/01/2008 5:43:34 PM PDT by JavaJumpy (You say PUMA - I say POUNCE!)
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To: BibChr

I admire a leader who holds God’s ways dear...


70 posted on 11/01/2008 5:46:10 PM PDT by Edgewood Pilot
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To: biss5577

Yeah, yahoo had Obama with 333 electoral votes and McCain with the balance (173?) Not.


71 posted on 11/01/2008 5:46:58 PM PDT by sarasota
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To: BibChr
Then, as I told my 13yo, I pray Obama is genuinely converted to Christ, gets some real Biblical discipling, gets a Biblical worldview, changes his life, racks up some real and good accomplishments, and runs and wins another time.

You had me until the last six words.

72 posted on 11/01/2008 5:46:59 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (The GOP may not be the party of "McRomney" after all.)
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To: LS

LS, your posts are great morale boosters and they make sense. In Pa., I see far less support for Obama than Kerry in a county that went for Kerry.


73 posted on 11/01/2008 5:48:02 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Obama wants to put the same crowd that ran Fannie Mae in charge of health care)
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To: LS
Thanks for the ping.

I was wonder in 2004. Maybe I'll be wrong again in 2008.

74 posted on 11/01/2008 5:48:04 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

wonder = wonderful wrong


75 posted on 11/01/2008 5:49:26 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: LS

Terrific post LS, you hit it.

We need to make sure we vote and not be sucked in
by those who try to demoralize McCain voters that
it is not worth it.

This could be our last free election, get out and vote McCain.
And heads up to several States, We are not going to let the ACORN votes stand.


76 posted on 11/01/2008 5:50:20 PM PDT by SoCalPol (McCain / Palin 08 The Only Choice)
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To: CatOwner

wonderful wrong => wonderfully wrong (damn, I need an edit feature)


77 posted on 11/01/2008 5:50:28 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: randita
If it’s 1-2 points in OH and O would need it to win, there’s no doubt he will challenge the results and demand a recount.

Which would be very interesting, given the ACORN mess in that state.

78 posted on 11/01/2008 5:52:02 PM PDT by r9etb
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To: biss5577
Each and every poll he is down

Ignore the polls, FRiend. Have faith, pray and vote. I listen to WABC day and night during the week, and get disgruntled that at the top of the hour they spit out the numbers that are least favorable to McPalin. It's annoying, after listening to Rush, Hannity, Levin, Ingraham, and Bob Grant to hear the most distorted poll numbers being recited by ABC news. I say again, ignore the polls! They are tweaked so as to be propaganda for the Fraud. Disregard them, they have an agenda. Just get out and vote, and bring a friend! God Bless America
79 posted on 11/01/2008 5:52:46 PM PDT by Canedawg ("If the media supposes that, the media is a ass, a idiot.," said Mr. Bumble.)
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To: LS
TRUST ME, after the first one or two of these patterns emerge, there will be some really glum faces on the tube.

I hope you're right, Larry... I would dearly love to see the wailing and gnashing of teeth. I'm trying to mentally prepare myself for the worst, though.

80 posted on 11/01/2008 5:54:43 PM PDT by r9etb
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