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Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania - Ras poll. 51-47 Obama. Obama only getting 75% of Dems!
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/1/2008 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/01/2008 5:07:01 AM PDT by vwatto

Election 2008: Pennsylvania Presidential Election Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania

Saturday, November 01, 2008

In Pennsylvania, John McCain is getting closer, but Barack Obama is still attracting a majority of voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month.

Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey. Obama is doing a bit better among unaffiliated voters while Republican support for McCain remains steady (see crosstabs).

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: mccain; obama
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To: NRG1973

I don’t see much changing the turnout in Ohio and Florida and to some degree Florida. The folks in these states in the past knew that they are choosing the next president and were bombarded with contacts on all levels.

It is hard to see how you motivate Joe to vote this time if he didn’t vote last time.


121 posted on 11/01/2008 7:22:00 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

And to some degree Pennslyvania


122 posted on 11/01/2008 7:23:28 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

Using the 43D/38R/I19 split from PA as found here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/epolls.0.html

McCain wins 49.93 - 47.54.


123 posted on 11/01/2008 7:24:45 AM PDT by GoSarah
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To: Common Tator

I understand this, but if Obama is losing many Dems to McCain, would it matter if polls oversampled too many Dems?
I mean, wouldn’t the poll still pick up on the Democrat defection, and have the race closer at this point?


124 posted on 11/01/2008 7:25:17 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart

The theory goes that the Democrats are lying or hanging up rather than having to defend why they’re a Democrat voting for the white opponent.


125 posted on 11/01/2008 7:26:43 AM PDT by GoSarah
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To: semantic

I loved that Video, Go McCain, I feel the momentum!


126 posted on 11/01/2008 7:33:01 AM PDT by Milt3726 (Vote again)
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To: KCengineer

I was in Chicago last week and saw ONE obama sign in a condo window. None others....anywhere.

Odd, isn’t it?


127 posted on 11/01/2008 7:36:15 AM PDT by spacejunkie01
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To: GoSarah

I would guess that the 2006 turnout is the floor for GOP turnout but the Democrat turnout might be slightly higher plus fraud and worst case McCain is slightly behind.


128 posted on 11/01/2008 7:37:22 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: itsthejourney

Disrutptive troll, begone. PA is not 4 points to Bozo, and it is not lost. PA is going to McCain/Palin. These frickin’ polls are all cooked and oversampled. McCain/Palin win on tuesday, Bozo goes back to being a dumb a**ed, do nothing senator.


129 posted on 11/01/2008 7:39:22 AM PDT by calex59
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To: vwatto

I live in good old Jack Murtha’s district. Usually, besides Pittsburgh and Philly, Cambria County is the lone blue spot in a sea of red on the electoral map.

I work in a hospital. Most of the docs I work with are for McCain; the nurses, etc., mostly very vocal for Obama. The few I’ve talked to that are for McCain/Palin are relatively quiet about it because the Obama maniacs jump all over their asses.

I have noticed, however, that the yard signs are about 50/50. In my eyes, that is HUGE around here. In other recent elections one would be hard pressed to even see a a sign for Bush.

Also, I have not noticed nearly as many signs for old Jack as I have in recent elections.

I am growing cautiously optimistic for Pennsylvania, as long as we can overcome the voter fraud in Pittsburgh and Philly.


130 posted on 11/01/2008 7:41:37 AM PDT by Siouxz ( Freepers are the best!!!)
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To: snarkytart; Raycpa

You keep asking this same stupid question and people keep answering you. It doesn’t matter if a bunch of dems are going to vote for McCain, the oversampling is what makes the polls come out for Bozo. Some polls are oversampled by 16 points, Rasmussen has it at 8 points. They take the answers they get from the phone polls, then they figure out how much they have to oversample in order to get the numbers they need to put Bozo ahead. In other words they ask so many more democrats than they do Republicans that even if a large number of Dems are voting for McCain it will still show Bozo ahead. Plus, people lie about who they are voting for. Get it?


131 posted on 11/01/2008 7:46:11 AM PDT by calex59
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To: vwatto

Wjy does Ras never have any undecided?


132 posted on 11/01/2008 7:52:14 AM PDT by cookcounty ("A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not why the ship is built." ---Governor Sarah Palin)
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To: calex59

Listen JERK, I didn’t ask you, so you can STFU and keep reading some other post.
Also, check my posting history, I don’t KEEP ASKING THIS SAME QUESTION.
You have the wrong person.


133 posted on 11/01/2008 8:00:30 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Wpin
How can “The One” be leading in their poll that claims he has a four point lead yet is only garnering 75% of democrats...?

I am not one to say that "all the polls are wrong," or rigged, or whatever, but there are just so many things in the numbers being reported this year that make absolutely no sense at all, and this is the big one in this poll. If Obama is getting only 75% of Democrats it is simply inconceivable that he could be ahead overall. One of those numbers has to be wildly wrong.

If there is a bias in Rasmussen's numbers (Libs consider him a "Conservative pollster") I think it is that he pushes leaners (that's why he has few undecideds.) This creates, I think, a "Bradley effect." (Although I should probably call it an "Obama effect," because I think it has more to do with perceived peer pressure than with racism.)

134 posted on 11/01/2008 8:02:59 AM PDT by PhatHead
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To: Salamander

You’re too kind. Maybe I’ll see you next trip to Rocky Gap?
Be Well


135 posted on 11/01/2008 8:26:28 AM PDT by Ramcat (Thank You American Veterans)
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To: Ramcat

Tell me when you’ll be there...it’s just up the pike...:)


136 posted on 11/01/2008 8:31:05 AM PDT by Salamander (http://theuniversalseduction.com/articles/?c=Obama)
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To: Siouxz
I have noticed, however, that the yard signs are about 50/50. In my eyes, that is HUGE around here. In other recent elections one would be hard pressed to even see a a sign for Bush.

Your story has been told again and again and again. We know people like you telling this anecdotal story are not making it up. People will be JAW DROPPING SHOCKED, at how many Reagan Dems voted in the secrecy of the ballot box, against the untested, arrogant little man-child Marxist,

137 posted on 11/01/2008 8:50:15 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Wpin

The fake democrat registrations by ACORN add hundreds of thouands of fake demorats to the total number of Democrats.

So if 25 percent of the real democrats desert Obama and ACORN ads 25 percent fake democrats, the total number of democrat votes counted by the pollsters for obama is the same as if all real democrats were voting for Obama.

It is called lose 25 percent of your base and the pollsters don’t even notice.


138 posted on 11/01/2008 8:53:33 AM PDT by Common Tator
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To: Common Tator
So The Obamanites actually wind up being blinded and hoisted by their own petard. Poetic justice indeed!
139 posted on 11/01/2008 9:02:38 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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I don’t think it is possible, in reality, that Obama could only be getting 75% of the Dem vote AND be over 50%. That makes little sense IMO.


140 posted on 11/01/2008 9:05:54 AM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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