Posted on 11/01/2008 5:07:01 AM PDT by vwatto
Election 2008: Pennsylvania Presidential Election Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania
Saturday, November 01, 2008
In Pennsylvania, John McCain is getting closer, but Barack Obama is still attracting a majority of voters.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month.
Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey. Obama is doing a bit better among unaffiliated voters while Republican support for McCain remains steady (see crosstabs).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I don’t see much changing the turnout in Ohio and Florida and to some degree Florida. The folks in these states in the past knew that they are choosing the next president and were bombarded with contacts on all levels.
It is hard to see how you motivate Joe to vote this time if he didn’t vote last time.
And to some degree Pennslyvania
Using the 43D/38R/I19 split from PA as found here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/epolls.0.html
McCain wins 49.93 - 47.54.
I understand this, but if Obama is losing many Dems to McCain, would it matter if polls oversampled too many Dems?
I mean, wouldn’t the poll still pick up on the Democrat defection, and have the race closer at this point?
The theory goes that the Democrats are lying or hanging up rather than having to defend why they’re a Democrat voting for the white opponent.
I loved that Video, Go McCain, I feel the momentum!
I was in Chicago last week and saw ONE obama sign in a condo window. None others....anywhere.
Odd, isn’t it?
I would guess that the 2006 turnout is the floor for GOP turnout but the Democrat turnout might be slightly higher plus fraud and worst case McCain is slightly behind.
Disrutptive troll, begone. PA is not 4 points to Bozo, and it is not lost. PA is going to McCain/Palin. These frickin’ polls are all cooked and oversampled. McCain/Palin win on tuesday, Bozo goes back to being a dumb a**ed, do nothing senator.
I live in good old Jack Murtha’s district. Usually, besides Pittsburgh and Philly, Cambria County is the lone blue spot in a sea of red on the electoral map.
I work in a hospital. Most of the docs I work with are for McCain; the nurses, etc., mostly very vocal for Obama. The few I’ve talked to that are for McCain/Palin are relatively quiet about it because the Obama maniacs jump all over their asses.
I have noticed, however, that the yard signs are about 50/50. In my eyes, that is HUGE around here. In other recent elections one would be hard pressed to even see a a sign for Bush.
Also, I have not noticed nearly as many signs for old Jack as I have in recent elections.
I am growing cautiously optimistic for Pennsylvania, as long as we can overcome the voter fraud in Pittsburgh and Philly.
You keep asking this same stupid question and people keep answering you. It doesn’t matter if a bunch of dems are going to vote for McCain, the oversampling is what makes the polls come out for Bozo. Some polls are oversampled by 16 points, Rasmussen has it at 8 points. They take the answers they get from the phone polls, then they figure out how much they have to oversample in order to get the numbers they need to put Bozo ahead. In other words they ask so many more democrats than they do Republicans that even if a large number of Dems are voting for McCain it will still show Bozo ahead. Plus, people lie about who they are voting for. Get it?
Wjy does Ras never have any undecided?
Listen JERK, I didn’t ask you, so you can STFU and keep reading some other post.
Also, check my posting history, I don’t KEEP ASKING THIS SAME QUESTION.
You have the wrong person.
I am not one to say that "all the polls are wrong," or rigged, or whatever, but there are just so many things in the numbers being reported this year that make absolutely no sense at all, and this is the big one in this poll. If Obama is getting only 75% of Democrats it is simply inconceivable that he could be ahead overall. One of those numbers has to be wildly wrong.
If there is a bias in Rasmussen's numbers (Libs consider him a "Conservative pollster") I think it is that he pushes leaners (that's why he has few undecideds.) This creates, I think, a "Bradley effect." (Although I should probably call it an "Obama effect," because I think it has more to do with perceived peer pressure than with racism.)
You’re too kind. Maybe I’ll see you next trip to Rocky Gap?
Be Well
Tell me when you’ll be there...it’s just up the pike...:)
Your story has been told again and again and again. We know people like you telling this anecdotal story are not making it up. People will be JAW DROPPING SHOCKED, at how many Reagan Dems voted in the secrecy of the ballot box, against the untested, arrogant little man-child Marxist,
The fake democrat registrations by ACORN add hundreds of thouands of fake demorats to the total number of Democrats.
So if 25 percent of the real democrats desert Obama and ACORN ads 25 percent fake democrats, the total number of democrat votes counted by the pollsters for obama is the same as if all real democrats were voting for Obama.
It is called lose 25 percent of your base and the pollsters don’t even notice.
I don’t think it is possible, in reality, that Obama could only be getting 75% of the Dem vote AND be over 50%. That makes little sense IMO.
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