Gallup: O-51%, M-43% (WTH?)

Gallup ^ | 10/31 | Gallup

[tatown]

Obama-51%, McCain-43% (Traditional LV)

Obama-52%, McCain-43% (Expanded LV)

[Maverick68]

No it wouldn’t be hard to refute. We have seen EVERY major poll oversampling Dems by far too much.

[flyfree]

Interesting, Traditional and Expanded are merging.

[Thane_Banquo]

What’s interesting to me is how these trackign polls are getting volatile close to the end. Shows the pollsters don’t know what to expect and keep massaging their assumptions to match press reports. Fog of war going on, and even the pollsters are subject to it.

[wiseprince]

hahaha

In less than a week tens of millions have swung FROM McCain to Obama.

He lost 4% of 200 million people in 3 days. While Obama gained 3%.

Try to understand what that means.

I knew the O+2 was a trap

[Yomin Postelnik]

That’s the difference between “registered” (in both traditional and expanded) and “likely” voters” - which is also skewed Dem, but far less so. It’s still 2 or 3 with likely voters, which translates into a McCain victory

[smith288]

Yea..after polling inner city houston, chicago, new york and hollywood...

[Baklava]

Obama gets TV time, that is why. Every time I flip on thelberal media hes on. Why doesn’t McCain get equal time

[zaker99]

This is complete BS. I saw Newport on O’Reilly last night yucking it up with Scott Rasmussen. According to them the race has been over for a long time. I guess that’s why Obama is in Iowa today.

[goldstategop]

That Obama lead is based on heavy Dem oversampling. If Gallup has the party ID spread wider than 4+, you can throw this poll in the wastebasket.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[line drive to right]

Even the pollsters who try to be honest have to be very hesitant to believe their own polls, knowing that this year there are factors that have never before been present. So MANY McCain voters, probably, who simply don’t want to sound racist to a stranger - not because they are hiding racism, as the media would tell you, but simply because they do have a heart for African-Americans - but absolutely know that the Marxist Obama would do this country irreparable harm. Major league baseball broke the “color barrier” in 1947, and did so successfully because it was with Jackie Robinson of the Dodgers in the National League, and weeks later, Larry Doby of the Indians in the American League. They were strong, disciplined men who knew they would have to put up with real, intense racism. They stood above it and gained the admiration and respect of a nation. To draw an analogy, having Obama to break a “color barrier” in government would be more like having Dennis Rodman (sorry, that’s NBA) do so in a sport. There are many great African-American men who could carry the banner of first black U.S. president with dignity. Obama certainly is not one of them.

[snarkytart]

The media will not care this year about accuracy.
They can simply blame the Bradley effect.
These polls will shill for Obama to the end.

This is so true. Do NOT expect them to tighten up to within 1 or 2 points this election cycle. They will keep it at 4 or 5 points advantage for Zero.

[LowTaxesEqualProsperity]

Has a Gallup poll ever been off this much in the final results? If not, it’s scary.

[wiseprince]

VOA Daily Tracking poll O 48% M45% (O+3)..The only poll that is worth anything has O up only 3% (it was 4% yesterday) O48% M44%

So McCain is down by 5 in PA and 8 nationally. Tied in MO, down 8 nationally. Tied in NV down 8 nationally. Tied in OH down 8 nationally. Up in NC down 8 nationally. Down 4 in VA down 8 nationally. Does anyone see a pattern yet?

Massive fail

Ignore the Polls. Pray and Work for it!

[redk]

I knew at least one poll would try to do this after the disinfomercial. Screw ‘em 4 days left. Just vote.

[Dick Holmes]

Everybody should vote. I have already. Still, the polls are where they are. Right now they average O+6 or so on RCP.

[tatown]

Yeah I saw it too.

Newport did not say it was over. What he said was that since WWII there have been (2) candidates that were trailing in their poll during the last week of the campaign that went on to win the popular vote: Reagan in 1980 and Gore in 2000. If McCain wins he will join them.

[libh8er]

These polling organizations are in for a shock Tuesday night. The numbers simply do not reflect reality on the ground.

[Alter Kaker]

It is extremely odd that the traditional and "expanded" models now both show almost exactly the same results, with Obama actually losing a point in the "expanded".

If we're looking at the same thing, Obama gains a point (goes to 52) in the expanded.

[bcatwilly]

Has a Gallup poll ever been off this much in the final results? If not, it’s scary.

My guess is that most of the "credible" polling outfits will make sure to massage their final election polls on Monday night or Tuesday morning to be about 4 points to Obama. This gives them some room to be right about a somewhat comfortable Obama victory and a race much closer to 2000.