Posted on 10/29/2008 4:20:21 AM PDT by ViceroyArgus
RASMUSSEN Shock: Obama Lead Down to 3 Points... Developing...
Correct...and we will.
I know that I was in the minority of backing the professional credentials of Rasmussen, although he has stated publicly that he was virtually sure that Obama was going to win. The reason I maintained this viewpoint is that unlike Zogby who went ‘rogue’ by showing that McCain had lost 9.2 points over a 4 day polling period Rasmussen over the last month has boasted that up to yesterday Obama had earned between 50-52% of the vote and McCain had gained 44-46% of the vote (yesterday was 51-46). This may be boring to some but to me it shows that Rasmussen’s polling methods are sound. Thus for him to show a McCain surge of 5 points in 2 days to now where Obama has only a 3 point lead shows me that McCain’s momentum is real and despite Rasmussen’s own public pronouncements, he still maintains a professional integrity, unlike Zogby. As i have said on this web site before Rasmussen must be one conflicted individual.
Actually, oversampling (IMHO) by 3 points... So, it’s a DEAD heat, exactly even, according to my estimates... I do think that it will be Dems +5 over Reps.
This has always been a tight race despite the CBS/ABC/NBC polls stating Obama had a 13 point lead. There was never a 13 point lead but an effort to dissuade independents and Republicans from voting for McCain because the race was ‘over already’.
Now, the pollsters must reflect that actual data or be saddled with poor accuracy reputation that will affect their potential future income. That is why the race is tightening.
I agree, I think it will backfire. Still I would bet dollars to doughnuts the pollsterbators show bambi up after his prime time ego ejaculation.
And you know what's so funny about that? The Philles are in the World Series and Philly fans in the CRITICAL MUST WIN STATE OF PA, will be PISSED OFF BIGTIME at the Messiah for delaying the game.
Funny.
my prayer is that, at the last minute, he decides to go for a full hour!
I'm praying that by divine intervention the infomercial won't happen, or that McCain Palin will have their own.
Remember Rush Limbaugh is right 98.6% of the time.
Ok. We know that Rasmussen is slanting to the Dems by +7.2%.
So with even turnout numbers, we can assume a McCain lead of about 4% with his numbers. How big a lead does McCain need before we get coattails and he sweeps in a bunch of pubbies down ticket. I am going to ask this important question for you all to digest and think about....
If McCain wins by 5% or more, can we take back the House of Representatives? I believe it is possible because alot of the 2006 races were razor thin margins with conservative dems running. Just something to think about....
Don’t forget Florida, PA and FL are both swing states.
I think the purpose of this prime-time ad is as much to calm the emotional left which is in a panic because they thought this was wrapped up (and it’s not — not by a long shot) as well as to scare up a few more votes. What B-O says at this late date is unlikely to cause a significant number of additional people to embrace him or to others change their vote. He knows he’s in trouble and that he has a recent history of being unable to, as they say, “close the deal”.
That’s EXACTLY why Pew produced that bogus poll... To skew the averages... They knew that the other bogus poll (NewsweAk) was going to drop off, so they had to replace it with another lying poll, to keep the “air of inevitability” going.
Obama told Rasmussen that there was 57 states and he was going on that assumption.
Marilyn has a better complexion.
RACISM! /s
I think that depends in part on the PUMA impact. How many and how mad. If they are willing to blame the whole Democrat machine, then things could get ugly for the donkey party.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.