for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model: Posted on 10/28/2008 12:10:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Later tonight I will be doing the second “Nightly Bi-Poller Report” and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model:
Even Gallup’s fanciful ‘Extended’ turnout model took a huge dip.
(Excerpt) Read more at strata-sphere.com ...
Oh fer sure I am so stuned!
An Ernest rocks bump...peace...
Pray for the best, prepare to meet the worst with tranquility and renewed dedication.
Have the riots started yet?
praypraypraypraypraypraypray
Gee whiz and I was so looking forward to Obama’s coronation. bwahahahaha!
If barak HUSSEIN obama is not up by 4% on election day, I predict that he will lose by 1 to 2%.
If I’ve done my math right, McCain would have to poll a 51-47 lead in the latest day in order to achieve that swing.
If conservatives get out and vote we’ll win. My great hope is that PA goes red early next tuesday. If that happens obama is done.
The other likely voter model has a 6 point deficit though :(
WE can win this election....
We Must....Related FR Thread:
Barack Obama - Yes I Can Make Us Defenseless—Just Like Dec 7, 1941 ( YouTube Video)
See the Strata Sphere Blog for some heavy analysis on why that may be a bunch of H***S**it,
Isn’t this just the pre bambi-infomercial set up so they can jack up the polls afterward for bambi and attribute it to his leg-tingling eargasmic nirvanic half hour speech?
Now then, will some enterprising reporter (maybe from Florida or Pennsylvania) ask Biden if he knew that in Obama’s autobiography (of dubious authorship) he states clearly that he sought out particular types of people to hang out withamong them were...”Marxist professors”...
This is a three-day rolling average. The only way for McCain to have turned two consecutive days of 5-point Obama leads into a 2-point Obama lead is if YESTERDAY’S DATA HAD MCCAIN UP 4 POINTS!
((Obama+5) + (Obama+5) + (Obama-4))/3= Obama+2
bttt
I watched the rally too in PA - his best speech to date - passionate and funny.
One of my favorite toys this season is the percentage of undecided McCain would need to get to 50.1% of the vote.
Based on these results, 47% McCain, 49% Obama, leaving 4% undecided, McCain would need 77.5% of the undecided to break his way. If as many say this is a referendum on Obama, those he has not sold by election day could all break McCain. [This number includes no effect of Obama getting few votes than he polls. That is another issue.]
Of course how this shakes out in the electoral college, I am not sure. Still the GOP has a built in advantage in the electoral college so getting to 50.1% [which my very rough estimate of 50% + 1 vote] might well get to 270 also.
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