One of my favorite toys this season is the percentage of undecided McCain would need to get to 50.1% of the vote.
Based on these results, 47% McCain, 49% Obama, leaving 4% undecided, McCain would need 77.5% of the undecided to break his way. If as many say this is a referendum on Obama, those he has not sold by election day could all break McCain. [This number includes no effect of Obama getting few votes than he polls. That is another issue.]
Of course how this shakes out in the electoral college, I am not sure. Still the GOP has a built in advantage in the electoral college so getting to 50.1% [which my very rough estimate of 50% + 1 vote] might well get to 270 also.
The election of 200 teacheds us that one can win the electoral with less than 50% in the popular vote.
I see him losing about 20% of his base.
Interesting that you bring that up. Over the last two days, I've heard the media mention the possibility of an Electoral College Reversal (Obama wins Popular Vote, but McCain wins EC). Is there something the media knows which they don't want to tell us?
...”Still the GOP has a built in advantage in the electoral college...”
They do? Plz explain... Tx.