Gallup Stunner - Obama Down To 2% Lead Nationally!

Strata Sphere ^ | Oct 28 2008 | AJStrata

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Later tonight I will be doing the second “Nightly Bi-Poller Report” and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model:

Even Gallup’s fanciful ‘Extended’ turnout model took a huge dip.

[Antoninus]

McCain's going to need to pull off a political miracle to swing that state around in the next seven days........

Only a noob would be that credulous of the polls.

Welcome noob.

[Harry Wurzbach]

Indeed. The Reality Poll™ is holding steady at:

McCain 52%
Obama 47%

[dools007]

Ahem—That’s “Nittany” buster.

[Claud]

My pleasure! And thanks for the added info on the Presidential elections....where did you find that?

I was doing a little more research on the last Philly mayoral election which was also a black Democrat (Michael Nutter) against a white Republican. Nutter won in a huge landslide. But Nutter wasn’t a polarizing figure as Street was...he was able to win a good deal of support among whites and had a broad appeal.

I guess it all comes down to how white Democrats view Obama—that will determine whether or not the racial voting will come into play. Like you said, if McCain can pull Katz’s numbers or close to it, Obama doesn’t have a prayer in PA.

[HerrBlucher]

I agree, still I think the pollsters are gunning for that scenario and bambi thinks people GAS about his moronic spiel. I will bet that the pollsters will fix it so that bambi polls higher after his pedantic ejaculation.

[Betty Jane]

I googled PA Presidential Election results and the year. The site had a county breakdown.

[IndianPrincessOK]

You have a good point. They jacked up polling before all of the debates that “Obama” so conveniently won, not. So, it is just like some pollsters to help their guy out. I don’t trust Gallup or Rass lately but will just have to wait and see. I think enough fireworks will be going off in the next few days, well hours, that the polls will be the last thing on our minds. This is getting to be a civil war...and I think we are all starting to wise up to what ACORN/Obama has been planning in stealing this election for a few years now. I am just glad our leader is McCain!!! Let’s roll!!

[Joan Kerrey]

Looks to me that Obama is ahead. 2 or 3 % of the voters who will vote for Obama lied. Most of the undecideds will also vote for McCain. That puts McCain up by at the very least 5%.

[Devils Avocado]

I'm talking not about one poll, or two polls, but 32 polls in the past couple of months. Is there a reason to doubt absolutely all of them? Is there a reason not to be a bit concerned about those numbers? If you have something that discredits these polls, I'd like to see it (I'd probably sleep easier between now and Election Day!).

[Antoninus]

If you have something that discredits these polls, I'd like to see it (I'd probably sleep easier between now and Election Day!).

Friend, all I can give you is my own knowledge that polls are meant to influence public opinion, not measure it. They are statistical projections that may or may not bear any resemblence to reality.

If you want to sleep better at night, ignore the polls, get out there and volunteer, call, campaign, contribute, walk precincts, hand out literature, email family and friends, and do anything else you can think of to ensure Obama's defeat.

Don't let Rahm Emanuel and his lackeys in the MSM influence your vote or level of support.

[singfreedom]

Thanks for the PING!, Ern! Some very interesting developments indeed.

[Senator Goldwater]

I’m with you.

If the Keystone is red, Obama’s dead.

[Senator Goldwater]

If Obama cannot count on these white Democrats that Kerry got and Gore got, he is finished in Pennsylvania. He simply won’t have enough votes out of Philadelphia to counteract McCain’s advantage in the rural areas and the battleground suburbs.

Bottom line, yes places like Philadelphia usually go Democrat. But when race is a factor, even Philadelphia can’t be taken for granted as a Democratic stronghold. Hillary knew this. And this was the point she made over and over again-—Obama just can’t connect with traditional Democratic constituencies.

---

Excellent analysis, very insightful.

Barone seemed to think the Philly suburbs would hurt McCain over home prices/401k etc. But he made no mention of the Bradley/Street effect that you are discussing.

It certainly bears watching and is very encouraging.

[singfreedom]

You and me, both. I started smoking again several weeks ago after having quit 2 years ago. I thought I had it licked, but this election is killing me. I've never been so angry at the media in my life! Their refusal to DO THEIR JOB just infuriates me! They have forever ruined their credibility as far as I'm concerned.

......and listening to Obama slam our Constitution, and our very culture, in that newest audio tape doesn't help any either.

[singfreedom]

No, I think people are voting against a racist.

[AlanGreenSpam]

...”Still the GOP has a built in advantage in the electoral college...”

They do? Plz explain... Tx.

[Claud]

Barone seemed to think the Philly suburbs would hurt McCain over home prices/401k etc. But he made no mention of the Bradley/Street effect that you are discussing.

I'm sure he knows about it. Barone is a walking political encyclopedia. I think the Dems are hoping that they get enough new black voters to counteract their losses among Philly whites. (Hello Acorn). Here's one person's take on how Obama will do that:

This author certainly has a point, but he may be underestimating white defections to the Republicans--it can be pretty high, as we saw with the Katz race. This doesn't always happen in Philly--most recently Michael Nutter, who's black, won with a big percentage of the white vote. But he didn't have a perception as "the black candidate" and he reached out to whites in the city. Personally, I think Obama is much more polarizing to ethnic whites, along the lines of Street.

[MozarkDawg]

Quoting 0bama there — I don’t live in PA, do they play that video footage, at least run the audio on radio?

[mainerforglobalwarming]

Obama winning Montana? Can’t believe it either.