My pleasure! And thanks for the added info on the Presidential elections....where did you find that?
I was doing a little more research on the last Philly mayoral election which was also a black Democrat (Michael Nutter) against a white Republican. Nutter won in a huge landslide. But Nutter wasn’t a polarizing figure as Street was...he was able to win a good deal of support among whites and had a broad appeal.
I guess it all comes down to how white Democrats view Obama—that will determine whether or not the racial voting will come into play. Like you said, if McCain can pull Katz’s numbers or close to it, Obama doesn’t have a prayer in PA.
I googled PA Presidential Election results and the year. The site had a county breakdown.
If Obama cannot count on these white Democrats that Kerry got and Gore got, he is finished in Pennsylvania. He simply won’t have enough votes out of Philadelphia to counteract McCain’s advantage in the rural areas and the battleground suburbs.
Bottom line, yes places like Philadelphia usually go Democrat. But when race is a factor, even Philadelphia can’t be taken for granted as a Democratic stronghold. Hillary knew this. And this was the point she made over and over again-—Obama just can’t connect with traditional Democratic constituencies.
Barone seemed to think the Philly suburbs would hurt McCain over home prices/401k etc. But he made no mention of the Bradley/Street effect that you are discussing.
It certainly bears watching and is very encouraging.