Posted on 10/28/2008 7:34:50 AM PDT by NYC_BULLMOOSE
John McCain vs. Barack Obama Release Date McCain Obama Undecided Spread October 27 44.2% 47.0% 8.8% +2.8 Obama October 26 43.3% 46.5% 10.1% +3.2 Obama October 25 41.9% 45.8% 12.2% +3.9 Obama October 24 42.3% 45.8% 11.9% +3.5 Obama October 23 43.7% 44.8% 11.6% +1.1 Obama October 22 42.0% 45.7% 12.3% +3.7 Obama October 21 40.9% 46.9% 12.1% +6.0 Obama October 20 41.4% 46.7% 11.9% +5.3 Obama October 19 41.5% 46.6% 11.9% +5.1 Obama October 18 39.8% 47.2% 13.0% +7.3 Obama October 17 40.6% 45.9% 13.5% +5.3 Obama October 16 41.6% 45.2% 13.2% +3.6 Obama October 15 41.9% 45.2% 12.9% +3.3 Obama October 14 41.9% 44.8% 13.3% +3.0 Obama October 13 42.7% 44.8% 12.5% +2.1 Obama
(Excerpt) Read more at tipponline.com ...
Not good. The tightening was just the two or three day event we had been seeing for weeks.
Very bad news.
Who said that and how would they know?
I said this in another TIPP poll thread and I’ll say it again. You can almost forget the top line in this poll, except for this: if Obama doesn’t get to 48 in this poll, he’s toast regardless of what McCain’s total is.
4pts? The Emperor gained..ugh!
McCain wins if he’s within 4
Ah. Makes sense really. The IBD poll is a 5 day rolling average poll. Count back five days and look what is falling off today. Probably the best day McCain has ever had on the IBD poll.
A lot of times with the rolling average polls, what falls off can have more of an impact than what gets added on.
The pollster from IBD, Raghavan Mayur, was being interviewed by Megyn Kelly, shortly after they showed Obama’s rally.
He said today they will be releasing a poll with Obama up 4.
Just making an observation. McCain is not getting all the undecideds, but by the graph you posted, it seems that as the # of undecideds goes down, so does Obama’s lead.
Actually, it shows undecided splitting evenly. Not good.
Surely they will come to their senses by Nov 4.
I mentioned it before- In 1972, Nixon beat McGovern among under-30 year old voters.
Similarly, despite J.F. Kennedy’s appeal to women, Nixon won the vote among women in 1960, I believe.
The vast majority of college students are apolitical and think that activists are stupid in the first place. Rub it in their noses too much, too hard, too fast, and they might decide that they don’t want to put up with that for 4 years.
Relax! Don’t forget that this poll uses a 5 day rolling average, as opposed to Zogby, Rasmussen, and Gallup that use a 3 day average. McCain could have had a big day 5 days ago that just fell off the average.
Yeah, and it looks like Obama had a really good day 4 days ago. Am I reading that right? Maybe it will tighten back up tomorrow.
“Ah. Makes sense really. The IBD poll is a 5 day rolling average poll. Count back five days and look what is falling off today. Probably the best day McCain has ever had on the IBD poll.
A lot of times with the rolling average polls, what falls off can have more of an impact than what gets added on.”
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that’s a very helpful observation — and encouraging inits own way.
This is good news for McCain. Polls were expected to tighten this week, and they are. This weekend, undecided/independents will break for McCain. They like and trust him more. Obama has not sealed the deal by a long shot; polls starting to bear this out. Be hopeful!
you’ve gotta remember that weekend results are included in this rolling average.....weekends are bad for repubs.
The Saturday poll, November 1st, will be the most accurate poll. At least that is what I think. If we are within 3, we win.
Oh nonsense. As if voters care about some senator from Alaska. And noway a poll reflects something so fast as yesterday’s news anyway.
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