According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 192.70 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/20/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
There are some just awesome bets out there.
3-1 odds for a McCain/Palin win in Florida! Oh man!
Better than 6-1 odds in PA.
I am sad, very sad, that this election may put us on a terrible downward trend...
In trade had Bush at around 40% the weeks before the 2004 election. I bought a bunch and made a killing.
As a futures market, they pretty much suck. The amount of volume is fairly small and they generally show movement after the fact, not before.
Still, I’m buying up stock in Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio.
The odds on them are ridiculous. With accurate reweighing, McCain is solid in the first 2 and about over even to make it in Ohio.
The Intraders have drunken the kool-aid of biased polling.
What a crock of sh**. That’s my opinion, no discussions on fantasy projections are necessary or desired.
311 Obama +IA, CO, NM, VA, OH, NV
227 McCain
That’s my prediction based on current polling.
Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.
Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts
bttt
So just stop this stupid and outdated technicality of an Election. Osama/bama is now our FUERHER UBER BAMA, er president of America and the entire world.
