Posted on 10/26/2008 6:13:00 PM PDT by Chet 99
Oct. 27, 2008 | As his campaign manager has described it, John McCain is now looking at a "narrow-victory scenario." "The fact that we're in the race at all," added Steve Schmidt, "is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong."
But talk of miracles and head winds aside, I think John McCain really does have a decent shot at winning, and that's not just because I'm a longtime Republican political operative. Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn't.
Much has been written about the so-called Bradley Effect, in which voters lie to pollsters about whether they're willing to vote for a black candidate. The Bradley Effect is meant to explain why, for example, Doug Wilder had a healthy 9-point lead up to Election Day in the 1989 Virginia governor's race, and a similar lead in exit polling, only to squeak through to victory by one-half of 1 percent. But I'm not talking about voters telling pollsters they're going to support Candidate A when they're really going to vote for Candidate B. There are two other ways in which voters can mislead pollsters about their intentions. One is to decline to participate in a poll. (More than one expert has suggested that conservatives are more likely to decline than liberals, meaning there could be many uncounted McCain voters.) The other is when pollsters participate in a poll but withhold information.
(Excerpt) Read more at salon.com ...
also, he told me that we want to see McCain start breaking over 46% in gallup and rasmussen...
he is a math/stat freak
I don’t recall reading about the Bradley effect when Ken Blackwell ran for governor in Ohio or Steele. I don’t recall any worries about the Bradley effect when Keyes stepped into the fray with Obama in Illinois.
I am really rather weary of people talking about it without reference to the 7 or more percentage points of he public who vote not on the content of character bu the color of skin— supporting Obama.
...
racism is how LIBERALS blame conservatives for not voting for their candidate...it can’t POSSIBLY be his crappy policies. NOOOOOOO.
I can’t believe the audacity of Obama to build a big victory stage in Grant Park in Chicago for his victory celebration on election night. I know he expects to win, but, does he expect to give a prime time victory speech that night? The early returns from the eastern states are going to give us some clues as to how things are going. If McCain can carry Pennsylvania and hold onto Virginia and North Carolina, for example, Obama may have a very long night to wait before he comes out to declare victory the way he wants to. If McCain also can win Florida, it will be a long night for both campaigns before we see final results.
Or does Obama just want a gathering of the faithful just to say “Hi” to everyone?
I can’t believe this business of Obama and huge crowds. He had to move his convention speech to a stadium, and his election night appearance has to be in a public park where 100,000+ can squeeze in.
The polls are pathetic. If they need to put 0 over 50% they will to discourage republicans from voting...these polls are a joke.
Ditka would have run we wouldn’t be here.
Steele said in Maryland it was 5 points.
what was 5 points?
Even if he loses, he will claim victory, then unleash the army of lawyers to contest every state where his margin of loss was less than 5%.
This is a coronation - the election is just for show.
It’s all bullshit.
Communist
Propaganda
Bullshit.
Tell the lie often enough, and folks begin to believe it.
I wouldn’t be so sure this will happen... Axelrod’s specialty is selling Black candidates to white people...
Calling him black only hearkens back to the old democrat Jim Crow laws which said that a person with even one drop of AA blood is black.
Each time the Obama calls himself black, he is playing the race card.
The annoying thing is when I pick up the phone and say "Hello" and there's a two-second delay of dead air before someone on the other side picks up. HELL-FRICKIN'-LO! You called me. Be on the the flippin' line!
Not the “Bradley Effect”, it will be know as the “Obama Effect” which is when people just can’t bring themselves to vote for a Socialist.
he is a math/stat freak
He made the choice; his "typical white" granny didn't make it for him.
Oh, I don't know, it couldn't have anything to do with SARAH, could it?
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