The Left's Big Blunder (Why the Polls Inflate Obama's Support)

Zombietime Blog ^ | 10/21/2008 | Zombietime

[bailmeout]

Two campaigns are being waged right now for the presidency of the United States. No, I'm not talking about the Obama campaign and the McCain campaign. I'm talking about the real-world campaign and the meta-campaign.

The real-world campaign involves speeches and proposals and facts and scandals and political positions and news events. These details, however, are becoming increasingly irrelevant, and have become subsumed by the meta-campaign, which consists of perceptions, polls, reactions, analyses and summations. Until very recently, elections were decided by real-world facts -- but not anymore. Facts and events in and of themselves are no longer important; what's important is how everyone reacts to them. And how do we find out the public's mood concerning this or that incident? Why, the media tells us, that's how.

Or so we've been led to believe ...

[cookcounty]

OOps, “Rahm” Emanuel.

[Ouderkirk]

5.56 x 45 X 10,000 rounds.

[flowerplough]

Until very recently, elections were decided by real-world facts -- but not anymore.

You think so, do you, Mr. Zomb? I don't. Ever heard any of these?
"Tippecanoe and Tyler, too"?
"He kept us out of war"?
The "bloody shirt"?
"Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion"?
"Ma, Ma, Where's my Pa?"
"And my favorite, Carter's "A Leader, for a change."

[nosofar]

Hang a big McCain/Palin sign on the doors of the CBS offices election night. Place some baseball bats nearby. :)

[upchuck]

I believe that some time ago “those in charge” decided the only way to elect an empty suit like nObama was through massive voter fraud.

A self-fulfilling prophecy.

I pray McCain wins by a margin large enough to discourage any recounts, challenges, etc.

[woollyone]

hehehe

I like it!

I’m on my second McCain/Palin bumper sticker.
At least they didn’t key my truck when they stole the first one.

[karnage]

I found this piece to be quite fascinating. The arcane historical references to “Clever Hans,” etc. were fun.

[Blind Eye Jones]

The only thing I disagree with this easy is that it, I believe, overlooks the emotional — non rational — appeal of Obama. People may know better than to vote for Obama but they'll do it anyway, and it is NOT about conforming in the sense of the two ways mentioned in this essay. The essay assumes that people are rational and that rationality wins out in the privacy of the voting booth. I submit that emotions are the easiest and first things, therefore, they inform the first choice for voters. It is hard to reason, and once we reason it is easy to doubt and go against our reasoning. For our efforts, we are never sure with reason's outcomes. Emotions, on the other hand, feel close, natural and reflect more about who we are, our very personal choice — the “politics is personal” POV. Mind you, we have been trained to feel and media does a a lot of this training, so you can question how “personal” any of it really is. But to the average voter it feels personal, even though their feeling and opinions have been shaped.

Bottom line: people are irrational and do things even thought they may know better. Examples everywhere from Plato's Republic to smoking cigarettes.

[Philo-Junius]

All psychological research indicates that emotional responses determine the overwhelming majority of human behaviour: reason exists only to facilitate achieving the desired a priori outcome, which, in politics, includes post-facto justification to peers.

[Blind Eye Jones]

In other words, today we assume that reason is the means toward an emotional determined end. But if you read Plato reason is the seat of judgment and is not a “means,” by any means. The two ways are perhaps reflective of the modern vs the ancient view of reason, makeup of the soul and the best state (regime) to live in. The modern view has democracy rule: the many passions and appetites rule and reason is their servant, certainly not the highest authority. In the ancient design reason is kingly: a sovereign ruling over the passions and appetites. Reason is concern with virtue rather than any one part — e.g., the passions or appetites — of the body politic. The ancient design is democracy inverted or a hierarchy with something small on top... that small voice in the middle of a dim. We live in modern Democratic times but many of the questions concerning reason and its role to address good and bad still need to be addressed. It shouldn't be overlooked by believing in the relativism of the passions or that tyranny doesn't exist.

[Philo-Junius]

I don’t know that it’s so much the difference between an ancient and modern worldview as it is the timeless struggle of an introspective minority to point out the prerationality of most human behaviour. Those who would rule others have always known the best way to achieve that is to diminish the capacity of others to rule themselves and their own impulses.

[El Gato]

McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

Not nearly so ugly as if The One prevails.

[El Gato]

buy your ammunition now.

Added 250 rounds of .45 ACP over the weekend. Also recently bought 1000 rounds of .30 Carbine, and have about 700 rounds of 7.62 NATO, and a couple of hundred of 7.62x39. I should be OK.

[Terry Mross]

The sad thing is even if McCain wins nothing will be done about this voter fraud. It gets worse every year and if there’s nothing done about there will come a time when you may as well ask Jesse Jackson who he wants to be president then annoint him.

McCain, if he wins, needs to shut down government if there’s one dime in a budget for ACORN. And he’ll need to let Sarah go on T.V. and explain WHY he’s shutting government down until the democrats remove that from the budget.

[econjack]

[If McCain wins] I think the msm will scream about racism in America instead of the O being a socialist.

I don't care what they scream as long as that Marxist loses. You'd think with all the ACORN crap around they wouldn't be able to bitch about anything.

[NatsFan]

A couple problems with this:

- One of the major polling companies, SurveyUSA, does not human pollsters, it is completely automated so as to eliminate any pollster bias. In the 2004 elections SurveyUSA was the most accurate.

If pollster bias was driving the mainstream polls in favor of Obama, we would expect to see McCain do much better in the SurveyUSA poll. Instead, the SurveyUSA polls have been strong for Obama

-It’s true that in certain social circles(Liberal Elites in San Fran and the like), supporting McCain would be social suicide. But the same would hold true in very conservative communitiesin reverse- particularly if it is a religious social circle- if you belong to a Christian church which belives in the value of life and marriage, you probably wouldn’t want people to know it if you were supporting Obama.

[shield]

McCain has always been an underdog; it’s always been the last 2-3 weeks he comes storming ahead. That’s what we’re seeing now.

[shield]

In 2008 there is no silent majority: there is the silenced majority. The unpolled majority. The media is so pro-Obama that the views and the concerns of McCain supporters are for the most part ignored or, at best, mocked.

[tomkat]

If McCain wins, I’ll be making about a half dozen suicide prevention calls

I wouldn't waste the time calling.

[Ziva]

Fascinating read. I encourage everyone to read the entire article even though it is long.