Remember, this race (in my view) isn't really McCain vs. Obama, Palin vs. Biden, or even Palin vs. Obama.
It's regular America vs. the media. And I want them absolutely crushed and humiliated the night of Nov. 4th. Let's replace Chrissy Matthews' tingle down his leg with something considerably less pleasant.
In fact, it's important to erase the past existence of everything, too.
God, this sucks.
I gotta get off my computer, but for now I’ll respond this way: I am cautiously optimistic about everything except the Senate races. Then again, I haven’t really focused yet on the Senate races.
Keep working and giving as hard as you can.
AmeriCAN and RepubliCAN in November!
Dead on the mark, both of you. Sick of hearing the defeatists spreading their doom and gloom.
McCain _might_ win - but it’s a longshot.
Here’s how it looks to me (of course, I will be upfront and say I have absolutely no qualifications and am just another FR reader and poster):
Obama wins the popular vote, with 50-52% of the total votes cast nationwide.
If McCain wins, it has to be “through the electoral college” - exactly as G.W. Bush did in 2000.
In order for McCain to prevail, almost every state in contention must fall his way - again, a longshot, and the trends in a few states are very discouraging for conservatives.
Ohio - McCain wins, but the margin is narrow.
Florida - Same as Ohio. McCain will win.
Colorado - might be too close to call. Favorable ballot initiative might help to eke out a win for McCain.
New Mexico - lost to the blue side. 2008 will mark the year that NM is “gone forever” from conservatives.
Pennsylvania - could be the heartbreaker, as with it, McCain wins, but without PA, his loss looks inevitable. Too close to call, leaning Obama.
Virginia - this state (along with the next one) is going to give conservatives a wakeup call the likes of a two-by-four hitting them in the backside. Conservatives/Republicans are going to lose VA on the down-ticket elections, and this certainly can’t help McCain there. 2008 will be the year the first southern state “goes northern”.
And just south of Virgina is North Carolina, another state in which the vote tallies are going to send shocks through the conservative world. Here, as in VA, a McCain victory is going to be nearly as thin as paper, if he can win at all.
Because I expect the vote tallies to be so close in the event of a McCain win, I expect MULTIPLE challenges to his victories this time, a la Florida in 2000. The ‘rats aren’t going quietly into the night. And this time, they will use the cries of “racism” as never before. The caterwaul may become so intense that perhaps - just perhaps - the majority of whites will be pushed towards that moment when decades of “white guilt” is finally burned out of them. Maybe literally.
There’s no telling yet what Obama will say in his “big speech”. I sense that no matter _what_ he says, it’s good for an additional point or two in the polls. He’s trying to “break 50” nationally - a point from which the opponent has almost no chance to recover.
I believe McCain’s best hope would be some kind of “rebuttal speech”. (Aside: isn’t it interesting how the Left and the media will push for a restoration of the Fairness Doctrine, but will say nothing about offering “equal time” after a political speech such as this?) I’d like to see it be given by Palin, in much the same way that Ronald Reagan gave his landmark speech in defense of Barry Goldwater in 1964. But I don’t expect this to happen.
I’ll vote on November 4th, even though I’m in a solidly-blue state where there’s no hope of McCain winning. But I’ll vote for him anyway.
I keep hoping that things will break our way, but one of the core considerations of my becoming conservative years ago was being willing to “see things as they are”, not as I would wish them to be. And the way I see them right now, perhaps our best hope is to start discussion on how to effectively oppose a rabidly-left White House and a Congress with leftist supermajorities in both houses. If that can be done at all.
I invite rebuttals regarding the individual states I mentioned above. And you can email me all the crow pics you can find, and I’ll eat them on November 5th.
But that’s how I’m calling it.
- John
Sadly, while I appreciate your positivism, I see little sign it is based on fact. Rassmussan, Real Politics and FiveThirtyEight all show Obama with substantial electoral college leads, on the order of 350 EV’s, well above the 270 needed to win.
I guess they *could* all be wrong, but I doubt they are. Of course a lot could happen in 13 days, but the sand is quickly running out of the hour glass.
Obama is now the overwhelming favorite at inTrade and other auction/ betting sites as well.
Here's Pelosi's boytoy Patrick Murphy (D-Moveon) getting ready to lock lips with Traitor Murtha. According to the ACU, Murphy is more liberal than Obama or Biden, though he claims to be a "Blue Dog".
If McCain does well in PA, Murphy will be gone! Lord, let it be so.
Ping
Ping
Are they? My wife and I don't actually have TV hookup of any sort (cable, or even antenna), so we don't see or hear about what ads are running anywhere. We get all our news off'n the internets (which is probably why we're not demoralised). Is McCain starting to spend some of this massive horde of funds he and the RNC supposedly have saved up?
I feeeeel good!!! Thanks for the upbeat message!
But I ask everyone on this thread to go to Real Clear Politics and on the map page, hit Create Your Own Map. You will be given today's polls on the states, and can then change each state's Red or Blue status to your heart's content.
Figure out which states we cannot afford to lose, and if you don't live in one, HELP THEM. Focus on the eastern time zones. If Obama gets momentum in an early return state, the media will do everything they can to destroy hopes of Republicans in later voting states.
Each one of us can do something. Phone calling, donations, anything.
Any word on two big House races in PA. Repub Lou Barletta (mayor of Hazleton,PA) and the ex-military fellow running against Murtha?
I heard Lou is ahead of slimy Paul Kaj aka Paul Fannie & Freddie. Murtha is insulting his base.
Donate and volunteer for McCain-Palin.
Agreed, America will not choose socialism.
I think Collins will beat Allen in Maine. And since I’m upbeat today I’ll say McCain surprises and carries Maine’s second district.
So there’s one ev. I want to say that only Iowa and New Mexico are in jeopardy, so right now there’s McCain at 279 ev. But I think PA will go McCain. A thread here had obama’s internals up 2. So factor in late McCain mentum, the Easy Ed Rendeell and the PUMAs, plus the NRA surge, I think McCain wins PA. It won’t be called until 6 the next morniong which will suck. If MccAin were to win PA big early, other states like Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota might fall into place.
I concur. Obama loses Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin out of the Kerry states. He could very well lose Minnesota, Iowa, and Maine’s 2nd CD as well. Michigan? Who knows, but it’d have to be part of a larger trend for Michigan to swing towards McCain at this point.
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/10/change-we-need-defeat-democrat-congress.html
Normally, political realities will restrain Obama’s extremist, but the liberal Democrats think they have the kind of majority coming that will reshape things further. Only twice before has a President on the Democrat side won with overwhelming majorities. In the 1930s and 1960s. Both times we got the most signification shifts towards big Government in our history - The New Deal and the Great Society. Our problems will not be solved by more Government - we need LESS Government. Our only chance to stop this radical and dangerous shift is to vote against every Democrat in Congress in the coming election.
If you want to save America ... you have one duty - NOW - and that is to spread the word and warn others: Maybe it is too late to stop the manifestly unqualified and extreme Barack Obama from becoming President. Certainly we can all try to vote McCain/Palin to stop the disaster from happening, but in the event that it wont be enough: The change we need is to defeat the Democrats in Congress. Defeat Nancy Pelosi and her earmark, pork-barrel,
corrupt trial-lawyer leftwing-special interest ACORN-supporting buddies in Congress.
BTTT We are going to win this. I have faith in the American people.