Posted on 10/21/2008 6:00:23 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.
But we still have plenty of work to do. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House. The GOP has about 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below:
AL-05
AZ-05
CA-11
GA-08
IL-14
KS-02
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02
NY-20
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
PA-11
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
And my personal favorite! PA-12 (tough, but doable thanks to Murtha the Marine smearing racist)
Details on these races (website links, voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are here spread throughout this thread.
The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead, after months of them gloating, will be very demoralizing.
If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.
No wait. That was sad too.
When will that big rock fall on me?
Harry Chapin fan, eh?
“When will that big rock fall on me?”
_____________________________________________________________________________
When you dance around with your hands in the air chanting “jee-ho-va, Je-ho-va, Jee-ho-va”
You *did* see that movie, I trust
No, but it's depressing to think that someone is as depressed as me.
It made me cry.
McCain _might_ win - but it’s a longshot.
Here’s how it looks to me (of course, I will be upfront and say I have absolutely no qualifications and am just another FR reader and poster):
Obama wins the popular vote, with 50-52% of the total votes cast nationwide.
If McCain wins, it has to be “through the electoral college” - exactly as G.W. Bush did in 2000.
In order for McCain to prevail, almost every state in contention must fall his way - again, a longshot, and the trends in a few states are very discouraging for conservatives.
Ohio - McCain wins, but the margin is narrow.
Florida - Same as Ohio. McCain will win.
Colorado - might be too close to call. Favorable ballot initiative might help to eke out a win for McCain.
New Mexico - lost to the blue side. 2008 will mark the year that NM is “gone forever” from conservatives.
Pennsylvania - could be the heartbreaker, as with it, McCain wins, but without PA, his loss looks inevitable. Too close to call, leaning Obama.
Virginia - this state (along with the next one) is going to give conservatives a wakeup call the likes of a two-by-four hitting them in the backside. Conservatives/Republicans are going to lose VA on the down-ticket elections, and this certainly can’t help McCain there. 2008 will be the year the first southern state “goes northern”.
And just south of Virgina is North Carolina, another state in which the vote tallies are going to send shocks through the conservative world. Here, as in VA, a McCain victory is going to be nearly as thin as paper, if he can win at all.
Because I expect the vote tallies to be so close in the event of a McCain win, I expect MULTIPLE challenges to his victories this time, a la Florida in 2000. The ‘rats aren’t going quietly into the night. And this time, they will use the cries of “racism” as never before. The caterwaul may become so intense that perhaps - just perhaps - the majority of whites will be pushed towards that moment when decades of “white guilt” is finally burned out of them. Maybe literally.
There’s no telling yet what Obama will say in his “big speech”. I sense that no matter _what_ he says, it’s good for an additional point or two in the polls. He’s trying to “break 50” nationally - a point from which the opponent has almost no chance to recover.
I believe McCain’s best hope would be some kind of “rebuttal speech”. (Aside: isn’t it interesting how the Left and the media will push for a restoration of the Fairness Doctrine, but will say nothing about offering “equal time” after a political speech such as this?) I’d like to see it be given by Palin, in much the same way that Ronald Reagan gave his landmark speech in defense of Barry Goldwater in 1964. But I don’t expect this to happen.
I’ll vote on November 4th, even though I’m in a solidly-blue state where there’s no hope of McCain winning. But I’ll vote for him anyway.
I keep hoping that things will break our way, but one of the core considerations of my becoming conservative years ago was being willing to “see things as they are”, not as I would wish them to be. And the way I see them right now, perhaps our best hope is to start discussion on how to effectively oppose a rabidly-left White House and a Congress with leftist supermajorities in both houses. If that can be done at all.
I invite rebuttals regarding the individual states I mentioned above. And you can email me all the crow pics you can find, and I’ll eat them on November 5th.
But that’s how I’m calling it.
- John
The Hawaii trip is interesting, it reminds me of something from a New York Giant season many years ago, back when Jim Fassel was the coach.
Fassel wasn't getting along with Michael Strahan at the time for some reason or another. (Strahan always was high maintenance) Fassel’s mom either passed or was quite sick and he left the team to care for her. Strahan took the opportunity to absolutely lambaste the coach to the media while he was out of town. It was some pretty stern stuff.
Strahan came out the loser in the exchange because it looked like he was picking on Fassel when he was out of town and couldn't defend himself. The media really piled on him.
OK, taking it to the campaign, it's a very weird move on Obama’s part, short of Grandmama being on death's door step, which hasn't been in any of the stories I've seen. I've heard that she's been sick, but not that there's been some change in condition that requires O to drop everything and get to Hawaii ASAP. To use their word, it's quite erratic for O to be heading to Hawaii right now.
There's work to be done, two weeks to the election, and now you want to go for a home cooked meal and some cookies at Grandma's house? I don't think so. There's something going on that isn't apparent at this time.
McCain and Sarah should stay on offense, but maybe tone it down for those two days. They don't have the luxury of standing down completely, but maybe keep things positive and on a substantive level. That way, they don't look like they are attacking a defenseless man, the way Strahan’s actions were portrayed in the NY media.
The other thing is that O has said exactly when he will be back. It gives them a chance to have the Rev. Wright ads cued up and ready to run the moment O is back in the Continental U.S.
Exactly. This is a basic reality the snobby conservative commentariat turning up their collective know-it-all nose at Palin aren't getting either.
McCain was totally in the hole with rank & file enthusiasm, local voluntarism & GOTV machinery until he selected her. This is something that the "chattering classist" Peggy Noonans & Christopher Buckleys of this world don't seem to have the slenderest tendril of a grasp on.
To win elections, you need to gin up the meter on the rank & file in flyover country, not on the newsfloor at CNN, and that's exactly what Palin did for McCain. And it's not bloody likely that any other pol a myopic beltway hostage like Peggy Noonan would have preferred as VP - or for that matter whom I might have preferred, could have done that, either.
Sadly, while I appreciate your positivism, I see little sign it is based on fact. Rassmussan, Real Politics and FiveThirtyEight all show Obama with substantial electoral college leads, on the order of 350 EV’s, well above the 270 needed to win.
I guess they *could* all be wrong, but I doubt they are. Of course a lot could happen in 13 days, but the sand is quickly running out of the hour glass.
Obama is now the overwhelming favorite at inTrade and other auction/ betting sites as well.
Here's Pelosi's boytoy Patrick Murphy (D-Moveon) getting ready to lock lips with Traitor Murtha. According to the ACU, Murphy is more liberal than Obama or Biden, though he claims to be a "Blue Dog".
If McCain does well in PA, Murphy will be gone! Lord, let it be so.
That's your problem, not mine. You don't have to agree with my opinion, but please don't wade onto a thread filled with data points and tell me I made this stuff up out of thin air.
A link or source for these stats from early voting that began yesterday?
Maybe so. But I am still going to vote for Mc Cain-Palin.
That's exactly right. Before McCain selected Palin, I was seriously concerned we might see turnout percentages along the lines of 2006 (Dems +3). I haven't had that worry since he chose her.
What an absolutely absurd comment. 2004 turnout percentage was 37-37. And during the GOP's supposedly horrendous year in 2006 turnout percentage was +3 Dems.37% + 37% = 74%. It's the remaining 26% that matters. If you look at the popular vote for the 2004 House elections, it was 49.2% to 46.6% Republican. In 2006, the popular vote for House elections was 52.0% to 46.4% Democrats. So, obviously, independents are increasingly voting Democrat.
So when viewed against polls showing Democrats outperforming Pubbies by 8-, 10- or even 14-points, it shows an objective observer how laughable those polls (which leads to your pretty little map) really are.I guess Karl Rove hasn't figured this out yet. Maybe you should give him a call.
Really? Like NM? Oops. Or PA? Oops. Or NH?I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.
And why is McCain/Palin spending money in Minnesota?Because his campaign is poorly run.
By the way, why was Joe Biden campaigning in Washington state earlier this week? Oops.Probably so when he said something stupid it wouldn't matter, but more likely it was to raise funds and to help down-ticket candidates. If you think Biden was there to shore up support because WA is in play, you're smoking crack. McCain has no chance in WA.
As for your little comment about Palin not costing Obama votes, well duh! It's about increasing the conservative turnout. The same turnout people like you were dismissing in 2004, until Kerry was hit by a tsunami on Election Day.Tsunami? Did I miss something? Bush won the popular vote by 50.7% to 48.3% and got 53% of the electoral votes. That's not a tsunami. If your impression of 2004 is so skewed, I'm even less inclined than I was before to trust your assessment of the current situation.
Shocking!
Because [McCain's] campaign is poorly run.
And that's all I needed you to admit. Buhbye!
Well maybe you could clarify it for us simpletons.I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.Shocking!
You disagree? If so, you are an optimist.Because [McCain's] campaign is poorly run.And that's all I needed you to admit. Buhbye!
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