Posted on 10/21/2008 6:00:23 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.
But we still have plenty of work to do. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House. The GOP has about 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below:
AL-05
AZ-05
CA-11
GA-08
IL-14
KS-02
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02
NY-20
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
PA-11
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
And my personal favorite! PA-12 (tough, but doable thanks to Murtha the Marine smearing racist)
Details on these races (website links, voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are here spread throughout this thread.
The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead, after months of them gloating, will be very demoralizing.
If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.
I’m still holding out hope that Steve Schmidt knows exactly what he’s doing with Mccain.
The campaign started out strong with a brilliant ad campaign leading up to the convention and then came the master stroke of selecting Palin for VP.
Joe the plumber has become a major factor exposing Obama.
McCain himself telling Obama that you don’t announce your intentions to your enemy. This would imply McCain has yet to play his show all his cards with a good poker face.
Just trying to stay optimistic folks. Odumbo scare the bejesus out of me.
Touchy, touchy.
Death to insipid vanities, searing pain to those who post them.
Word I’ve heard and read is that MD-01 is a GOP leaner. It’s a pretty conservative district (don’t ask me how Gilchrest lasted that long). I found one Dem poll from early Sept showing a 36-36 tie. So I’d guess it’s leaning a bit to the Pubbie.
Is anyone else concerned about all these 30 min infomercials that BHO is running just before the election? Thirty min to say whatever he wants (read:lies) with no rebuttal makes me nervous.
“It’s regular America vs. the media”
and universities and entertainment business. In other words, more than a political battle it’s a culture war, precisely because the media, universities and entertainment business have gone crazy.
I saw her on Chris Matthews and donated to her campaign. She’s a fighter.
Your "data" is as accurate as anyone else's, I suppose. There is no number out there, that I am aware of, that gives McCain a lock and congress the sort of gain you are selling, mountebank. Throw a rock at FR and you hit at least a thousand experts with an opinion. According to you, I can just stay home that day, eh?
The number that will count will be known on November 5th.
Stay on the phones, keep up the door to door, push this team across the finish line! Don’t stop now.
Hope you are correct, but I’d hesitate to call this machine “lightweight”.
I'm counting on Prayer, Faith, and that infamous Sleeping Giant to pull us out of this nightmare!
I've tried, really tried, to let the pessimists get me down. But what exactly is it I'm supposed to be truly worried about? (besides a Marxist occupying the Oval Office)
Obama has outspent McCain in an obscene way. Has he put the race away? No. And the media can't get any more in the tank for him. Obama's electoral map keeps getting smaller. And McCain and the RNC, plus some 527s, are just getting fired up. Folks can keep trotting out polls showing unrealistic oversampling of Democrats. If you and others truly believe the Dems will turn out in greater numbers (like 6,7 or 8 points greater) than the Repubs, then definitely believe those polls. But I keep looking back at 2004, where turnout percentage was a 37-37 tie. Even in 2006 the Dems only had a three-point advantage.
Not only do the national polls not make sense from that perspective, they also don't jive with where the candidates are campaigning. If Obama is a half dozen points ahead nationally, why was he going to Wisconsin this week (which mirrors the national average)? Why are McCain/Palin spending so much time in PA and NH, and so much money in MN, when they don't need those states to win?
CANCAN Bump!
LOL! So if they are moving back into Michigan then you're smarter than McCain and all his campaign staff. So noted!
I’m sorry. Did you have any actual data to provide? Or just wanted to whine?
They will be showing Obama ahead in the polls even the day AFTER he loses the election!
Great Line! LOL!
I admire your optimism, I really do. And you make excellent points. I really, genuinely wish I saw things the way you did, because I’m working on an ulcer worrying about Hussein in the White House. I’m voting McCain/PALIN and keeping my fingers crossed.
I guess I’m just whining ... ;(
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