Posted on 10/21/2008 6:00:23 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.
But we still have plenty of work to do. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House. The GOP has about 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below:
AL-05
AZ-05
CA-11
GA-08
IL-14
KS-02
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02
NY-20
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
PA-11
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
And my personal favorite! PA-12 (tough, but doable thanks to Murtha the Marine smearing racist)
Details on these races (website links, voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are here spread throughout this thread.
The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead, after months of them gloating, will be very demoralizing.
If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.
McCain is not going to win any of MN, WI, MI, NM, or IA. Try your map again without those. Those are not the battleground states. McCain has to win VA and PA and CO, and none of those are in the bag by any means.
Every time I play with the map, I come out with a tie or with Obama winning.
McCain needs to take a strong Obama state to win.
You bore me. [yawn]
Oh, well, since you're able to predict the future I stand corrected.
McCain still wins without MN, WI, MI, NM or IA. How do I know? Bush didn't win a single one of those states in 2000.
McCain is advertising in WI through at least 26 Oct.The election's on Nov 4th.
I suggest you bookmark this and continue this conversation on November 5th. One or the other of you will be eating some electoral crow.
I concur. Obama loses Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin out of the Kerry states. He could very well lose Minnesota, Iowa, and Maine’s 2nd CD as well. Michigan? Who knows, but it’d have to be part of a larger trend for Michigan to swing towards McCain at this point.
I’m fine with it. You’ll notice I have no problem backing up my optimism with data. And bookmarks help people with selective amnesia. Like our friend who said something like “You’re saying we shouldn’t do anything!” when this thread is of course saying the exact opposite.
As a reporter myself, I would love a riot.
Action like that breaks up the more mundane stories. But, I really won’t want one this year......we need unity.
I think if McCain wins MN he will definitely win MI. Whether either occurs remains to be seen.
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/10/change-we-need-defeat-democrat-congress.html
Normally, political realities will restrain Obama’s extremist, but the liberal Democrats think they have the kind of majority coming that will reshape things further. Only twice before has a President on the Democrat side won with overwhelming majorities. In the 1930s and 1960s. Both times we got the most signification shifts towards big Government in our history - The New Deal and the Great Society. Our problems will not be solved by more Government - we need LESS Government. Our only chance to stop this radical and dangerous shift is to vote against every Democrat in Congress in the coming election.
If you want to save America ... you have one duty - NOW - and that is to spread the word and warn others: Maybe it is too late to stop the manifestly unqualified and extreme Barack Obama from becoming President. Certainly we can all try to vote McCain/Palin to stop the disaster from happening, but in the event that it wont be enough: The change we need is to defeat the Democrats in Congress. Defeat Nancy Pelosi and her earmark, pork-barrel,
corrupt trial-lawyer leftwing-special interest ACORN-supporting buddies in Congress.
Do your best to help harris out.
“I just listened to McCain in PA. This guy is a genius. There are so many things he has been letting Obama get away with. I’ve wondered why he hasn’t pushed back. Well now we know he has been holding his fire.
McCain is using battlefield strategy. He was on fire just now. He answered the “95%” tax cut claim of Bambi with “40% don’t pay taxes!” He said ObieWan is going to take “your” money and spread it to people who don’t pay taxes. We’re gonna win, folks! “
Here’s what EVERYONE READING THIS SHOULD DO.
Make a SIGN: “STOP OBAMA’S SOCIALISM”
Make a yard sign or 4x8.
On election day - TAKE THE DAY OFF - and put the sign out there. On election day, accost people voting with the talking points ... THESE ONES:
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/10/change-we-need-defeat-democrat-congress.html
# Special interest giveaways to groups like ACORN
# Government takeover of health-care, shifting as many a 50 million more people into a Government run plan (See below, Obama ultimately wants single payer aka 100% Socialized medicine!)
# pork barrel-overspending, like the $200 billion farm bill the Pelosi Congress passed, and the $1+ TRILLION in bailouts this year; Pelosi wants another bailout for $300 billion, on top of the $700 billion for wall street, $300 billion housing bailout and $100 billion govt check giveaway - when will it end?
# Pro-abortion extremism, including taxpayer funded abortions and ‘Freedom of Choice’ Act, which will override state desires to protect unborn life
# Amnesty for illegal aliens, and drivers licenses for illegal aliens, which Obama supports
# No drilling in ANWR or offshore, and an anti-energy policy that won’t allow full exploration offshore; it means higher energy prices
# Trade policies that are the worst since Herbert Hoover (who created a depression out of similar policies)
# Higher taxes that will kill jobs; Obama in the past year proposed higher payroll taxes, higher income taxes, and raising the capital gains taxes from 15% to 25%. Now in the general election, Obama has flipflopped on it, but he will surely flipflop back in order to make taxpayers pay for his $800 billion in spending promises that he can’t keep without higher taxes.
# Job-killing ‘cap-and-trade’ CO2 regulations
# Attacks on free speech, with “fairness doctrine” attacks on talk radio, and political correctness attacks on free speech( Missouri DAs investigating people who say bad things about Obama)
# Attacks on the ballot box, by ending the secret ballot for union elections, and by opposing voter ID laws
# Gay marriage: Obama and Biden oppose Cali proposition 8, which protects traditional marriage, in effect signalling that he supports gay marriage
MAKE IT CLEAR IN OUT POLLING AREA THAT OBAMA IS AN EXTREMIST.
50 votes in 50,000 precincts each is 2.5 million votes.
This election will be decided by less than that.
The above talking points will make many moderate/conservative Obama voters think twice.
All we need are 50,000 1-day volunteers and the election will be won.
Polls are trending McCain though, so add 2-4 pts.
Polls are trending McCain though, so add 2-4 pts.They were but now they're headed back in Obama's favor. The RCP average has Obama back above 50% and his spread up to +6.9%. It was +5% two days ago. Time is running out for McCain.
Wow, I think I’m gonna spend a lot more time at PUMA (hillbuzz, etc.) sites after reading your posts. They are a helluv a lot more optimistic than you.
Wow, I think I’m gonna spend a lot more time at PUMA (hillbuzz, etc.) sites after reading your posts. They are a helluv a lot more optimistic than you.Their optimism did wonders for Hillary.
If they are indeed, then yes, yes I am. Not only would McCain have to overcome the union/socialist stranglehold (impossible) he would also have to overcome our state GOP, probably the worst run in the nation. He doesn't stand a chance here. His money is best spent in actual battleground states.
But you go ahead and doubt me. I'll do you the courtesy of not saying "I told you so" on November 5th.
BTTT We are going to win this. I have faith in the American people.
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