MN: O-50%, M-44% (Democrats Oversampled by 7-points)

Survey USA ^ | 10/20/08 | Survey USA

[tatown]

Older Minnesota Voters Re-Think McCain; Obama Now On Top in Gopher State for 1st Time Since GOP Convention: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/19/08, sixteen days till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 17 days ago, Obama is up 4 points; McCain is down 3. In three previous SurveyUSA polls since mid-August, Obama had received 46% to 49% of the vote, McCain 46% or 47%. This is the first time either candidate has reached 50%. Just after the Republican national convention, held in St. Paul, McCain led by 4 points among voters age 50+. Today, McCain trails by 12, a 16-point swing to the Democrat in 6 weeks. Among Independent voters, McCain had led by 9 just after the GOP convention, now trails by 6, a 15-point swing to the Democrat. There is movement to Obama among both men and women, and in the greater Twin Cities region.

[tatown]

Party Weighting: D-38%, R-31%, I-27%

2004 Exit Polls: D-37%, R-37%, I-26%

[Perdogg]

Minnesota exit polls in 2004 had, the GOP was undersampled meaning that this race is statically a dead heat.

Dem 38
GOP 35
Ind 27

[Monterrosa-24]

Hey that makes MN look winnable! It is not a must have for McCain but it sure would be good to have.

[CatOwner]

MN matched the national DEM/GOP breakouts in 2004? I sort of doubt that.

[tatown]

Correction:

2004 MN Exit Poll: D-38%, R-35%, I-27%

[CatOwner]

Wow, a lot closer to the national breakouts in 2004 than I would have thought. And Bush lost MN in 2004 because?

[mwl8787]

I am encouraged by this poll and voted absentee today for McCain-Palin. Minnesota.

[Chet 99]

Bush lost MN by 3.5%

[HamiltonJay]

based on that, I’d say 4-5% more D’s than R’s is worst case reality for 2008.

[tatown]

This validates for me why McCain continues to spend resources here. The state of MN is definitely in play.

[avacado]

For Minnesota in 2004 the voter turnout was:

Dems 38%
Reps 35%
Inds 27%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MN/P/00/index.html

[astyanax]

And Bush lost MN in 2004 because?

Fraud.

[Perdogg]

Fraud probably.

[tatown]

In reality, Obama probably has a 2-4 point lead with about 10% undecided. The land of 10,000 lakes is very much in play. Who knows it might be more winnable right now than VA.

[Parley Baer]

Hopefully the Republican turnout will be heavier and more enthusiastic than the dimocRAT.

[italianquaker]

We are going to take PA and NH, MN would be an added bonus

[tatown]

I corrected myself, see post #5.

[avacado]

I saw it after I posted. Sorry ‘bout that!

[HamiltonJay]

Well I’ve said for a long time, McCain will take PA, and most likely at least 1 more rust belt state... Fauxbama is in huge trouble in the rust belt.

[avacado]

" Hopefully the Republican turnout will be heavier and more enthusiastic than the dimocRAT."

I believe we have history on our side!