Pollster predicts race to wire (Gallup)

Boston Herald ^

[Chet 99]

Brush up on hanging chads! The scramble for the Oval Office is “tightening” to 2 percentage points, with recent presidential history of photo finishes poised to repeat itself, a noted pollster says.

Barring a serious slip-up or riveting news event, it appears that Barack Obama and John McCain will be up late on Nov. 4 while the votes are counted.

“The race is tightening,” said Frank Newport, editor of polling powerhouse Gallup. “That’s what makes it so fascinating.”

Newport told the Herald yesterday Obama is up by 2 percentage points when “traditional” voters are surveyed. Those voters, he says, “have a history of voting.” This loyal block - stocked with Republicans - is polling at 49-47 percent for Obama.

The wild card, he said, are younger and minority voters. If they get out and vote, Obama’s poll numbers leap to 51-45.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Newport, who added that a major gaffe, Wall Street turnaround or big event could still sway voters in the days to come.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Oh I know, McCain’s home state better not be! LOL

I was speaking to anyone who was in a swing state.

[SaintDismas]

There already has been a major gaffe, by Barak Obama. About Joe the poor freaking plumber now getting beat up by rich bling bling 0 and his goons. The ‘racists’ in Murtha’s district probably don’t like seeing it, nor do Joe’s homies in OH.

[napscoordinator]

I have to get my fellow FRiends here credit because they predicted this weeks ago. FRiends said that the polls were suddenly going to tighten up so that when McCain wins they will say “Hey the polls tightened.” The only thing that was a bit off was the FRiends said that they would have waited until the last week to do this, but I guess the pollsters wanted to start even earlier. lol. We are so lucky to be among such smart FRiends!!!!

[napscoordinator]

Thie FIX is already in to steal the election

The thing is the Democrats sued the Republicans for allegedly stealing the election in 2000. Are we strong enough to sue them in 2008 for allegedly stealing the election? The Supreme Court might decide the election again!!!! Yeah!!! My fear is the conservatives will not take action and just accept the results...of course upset about them but figure it was stolen but don’t want the American people to go through another 2000.

[I. M. Trenchant]

Newport did not mention that the "expanded" likely voters in this election will also include those who wouldn't ordinarily vote except in the rare instance when there is a broad national concern that one of the tickets contains a nominee whose possible election to office is so frightening that it must be blocked. This sort of situation has occurred twice in the past 50 years: in the case of Goldwater in 1964, when the Democrats convinced large numbers of voters that Goldwater was too dangerous to be President and might use 'the bomb' (the famous 'daisy ad'); and in 1972, when McGovern was seen by the public, including centrist Democrats, as too radically leftwing to hold the office of the Presidency. Both LBJ and Nixon won in 1964 and 1972, respectively, by the largest pluralities that one of the major parties ever held over the other major party at the time each election took place. The same factor had been put in play by Adlai Stevenson on the eve of the 1956 Presidential election when he reminded the public that "a Republican victory tomorrow would mean that Richard M. Nixon would be President of this country within the next four years." This was a not-so-cryptic suggestion that, if elected, Ike, who had suffered a serious coronary in his first term, would die before his second term expired, and Nixon would succeed to the Presidency, a consequence that Stevenson seemed to think would chill the blood of the U.S. public as much as it would chill the blood of the murderers' row in the Kremlin. In this case, the threat of a Nixon Presidency fizzled and Dick & Ike sailed to a landslide victory. This time around, in 2008, the threat of an Obama Presidency is pitted against the threat of a Palin vice-presidency leading to a Palin Presidency. So far, judging by the polls, the former is not as threatening to the public as the latter, and if the gap begins to narrow, the question is: Which threat will bring out more of the "expanded" likely voters who respond to 'armageddon-type' threats. The only clue we have is that so many prominent Republicans (e.g., Christopher Buckley, Noonan, Brooks, Will) have 'felt the chill' and have openly defected from Republican ranks on the basis of the Palin candidacy, whereas no prominent centrist Democrats have openly defected from Democratic ranks on the basis the 'Obama threat.' Only careful analysis of the Nov. 4 electorate, based on asking the right questions, will give us the answer.

[newfreep]

When b.hussein and acorn steal the election, I truly believe enough Americans will begin to overturn the election using whatever force is neccessary. We will do the work that SCOTUS won’t do.

[ballplayer]

The operative phrase that makes this article bogus is ,if Minorities and young people stay in traditional Patterns, Ask yourself Do you really believe Minorities and young people are going to Vote this time in Usual Patterns ?
Dont kid yourself folks you are just setting yourself up for a Huge letdown . The Morons in this Country Elected Clinton TWICE. This guy has the same attraction to these Brain dead morons . Obama Is going to win all the states Kerry won and he is ahead in most of the states Bush won .
This is the end

[MrChips]

We have a “wild card” of our own: the incredible crowds Sarah Pain is drawing.

[LS]

Please. Let them ALL register in CA, NY, NJ, and any other blue state. Just keep them out of NV, CO, and VA, and we win this election.

[MrChips]

OK, Mr. Realist. There’s always hope. Light a candle in the darkness.

[MrChips]

Not true. A number of high profile, centrist Democrats have, indeed, abandoned Obama. Remember millionaire funraiser, Ms. Rothschild? Remember the head of NOW in Los Angeles? There’s always Joe Liberman, too. And what about all those Hillary supporters?

[Retired Greyhound]

MUCH worse than Bush/Gore.

If “The One” wins the popular vote and is not elected, you will see all sorts or riots and judicial shenanigans to try to get him elected.

[ballplayer]

Im with you ,Just Venting my frustration and Sheer terror at what we are facing in 3 weeks. It Is all Surreal ,I never thought I would see this in My Lifetime .
Im not giving up But if I dont keep an even temperment I may end up in the Hospital, Lets both Hope the Country comes to its senses

[MrChips]

Me too. Pray!

[houeto]

Not wringing my hands and all, just not sure how we’re going to get a fair vote there.

Only thing we have in our favor is the stupidity of left-wingnuts.

Howard Stern sent Sal into Harlem to ask blacks who they were voting for. All but one said Obama.

He then asked what was it they didn't like about McCain. Of the ones that made the tape, they said in one way or another that it was his policies.

Then he asked them what it was they liked about Obama, was it because he is pro-life or because he wants to keep the troops in Iraq until the job is finished. They all picked one or the other. It was hilarious!

Finally, he asked them if they had a problem with him picking a woman, Sarah Palin, as his running mate. Each one said that they did not have a problem with that. She would do fine.

That being said, there is no doubt in my mind that there is a percentage, whatever it may be, of these idiots that think they have already voted for Obama.

Could be they got polled on the phone. When they said I'm voting for Obama, that was their vote. Could be that ACORN had them register. To them, that was their vote.

Yes, they are that stupid!

[babylucas]

All this Joe the Plumber stuff has put the spotlight on Ohio. I think this is going to fire up Ohio Republicans. But I’m still worried about Colorado. Anybody following what’s going on there? Real Clear Politics says That One is up by six.

[worst-case scenario]

But what happens if the situation is reversed? Obama wins the electoral college but McCain wins the popular vote?

What’s the scenario then?

[tcrlaf]

“Everyone is assuming Obama’s massive turnout operation having a major impact.”

When I see polls that are weighted 50% Democrat, 36% Republican, and 14% Independent, and only show Obama leading by 7, I pause....

There is NOTHING out there that I see, that can justify such wild weightings that run counter to EVERY historic voter turnout in the last 40 years.

[Jacquerie]

The 2000 election broke the seal.

I would be surprised if this election does not end up in the courts. The rats have abused the courts to their advantage at every possible turn. While I do not like it, I think the pubbies should do the same.

[Retired Greyhound]

If McCain wins the pop. vote and Obama wins the EC, the MSM will gush about the genius of the founding fathers.