Obama leads McCain by 6% in Virginia

Christopher Newport University ^ | 10-16-08 | Dr. Quentin Kidd

[UCAL]

Obama leads McCain in Virginia

(NEWPORT NEWS, VA) – With just under three weeks to go before Election Day, Senator Barack Obama leads Senator John McCain in Virginia by 6.0% among likely voters, 49.2% to 43.2%. Obama’s lead appears to be driven by voter concerns about the economy. Asked to name the top issue that they would like candidates to address between now and Election Day, just over six in ten likely voters say the economy. No other issue breaks double digits. These findings are from the Christopher Newport University Virginia Poll conducted October 11-14 of 500 likely voters.

When asked which would be the second issue that they would like the candidates to address between now and Election Day, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan top the list at 20.4%, followed closely by health care at 18.5% and then the economy, gas prices and energy policy, and terrorism. Fewer than 7% want the candidates to address the personal character and integrity of the candidates, suggesting that voters have not responded well to Senator McCain’s efforts to make Senator Obama’s character and integrity an issue in the final weeks of the election.

Nearly 50% of voters think that Joe Biden is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate, compared to just one in three who say Sarah Palin is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

snl doing funny skit on the debate and joe the plumber

[brwnsuga]

Well this is Virginia in a middle class neighborhood.

[jveritas]

What is the % of whites versus blacks in this poll? What the % of whites who are polled from Fairfax county versus other counties?

[impeachedrapist]

In 2004, Real Clear Politics' final average of the polls gave the following:

And that's the key - FINAL averages. They can publish whatever crap they want early on, but then they straighten up a bit toward the end. And curiously, as Ann Coulter covered in her recent article in FrontPage mag, if the pollsters err in Presidential races they almost universally favor the Dems. Weird.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Then why did Bush gain votes in 2004 over 2000? Over the last 3 presidential elections, the trend has been all Republicans.

[UCAL]

20.0 ............. African-American
73.0 ............. White
7.0 ............. Other

[Red Steel]

“One item of interest in the internals. 48.7% of respondents have 4-year college degree or more. I’m pretty sure that’s way too high. Could explain the Sarah Palin responses.”

Yup.

Bachelor’s degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000 Virginia 29.5% USA 24.4%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51000.html

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

>>Don’t believe the polls. They showed Kerry winning handily.<<

That is a common misconception on FR. The polls were about right on Bush-Kerry. However, they could be wrong this time. I think McCain and Sarah need to spend more time in VA instead of campaigning in states that are a lot less likely to pay off.

[kabar]

What do you know about VA, newbie?

[TaxRelief]

48.7% of respondents have 4-year college degree or more.

Yup, just as I thought, they polled their friends, parents and teachers...

[jveritas]

OK thanks.

Based on the 2004 results Kerry got 32% of the white votes and President Bush 68%. In order for Obama to be at 49% then he is getting 38% of the white vote and I also gave him 95% of the black vote (Kerry got 87% in 2004). I doubt very much that Obama the black left wing candidate is going to get more white votes than Kerry did in Virginia. That is why I asked if they show what % of white voters they called in liberal Firfax and in the conservative counties.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

>>And that’s the key - FINAL averages. They can publish whatever crap they want early on, but then they straighten up a bit toward the end.<<

See the chart in post #88. The RCP average favored Bush throughout Sept. and Oct.

[jveritas]

In 2006 the census bureau reports that women in Virginia are 50.8% of the population. In 2004 54% of the Virginia electorate were women and 46% were men. The 58% women in this poll is very high.

[impeachedrapist]

That's fine. But I'm not talking about Bush nationally (although Alter Kaker was). The context, I believe, was Virginia. There was a Survey USA poll done three days before the election showing Bush up only four points. And Zogby and I think another pollster showed Bush up in VA only 2-3 points. He ended up increasing his margin and winning by nearly 9 points.

The difference this time around is Kerry had abandoned VA about a month before the election. Obama and the DNC/DCCC are pouring a ton of money into VA, probably through Election Day, so McCain/Palin must respond. Whether this proves to be a smart or foolish use of Dem money remains to be seen. But all these arguments about northern VA turning blue, Virginia turning purple or blue, Democrats starting to win races... they've been around for many elections.

[Perdogg]

which means the GOP is undersampled by 10%.

[HIDEK6]

AND

Oversampled women 58-42.

Nothing to worry about.

Oversampled women are PUMAs.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Sorry, my mistake. I didn’t know what the VA polls were.

[impeachedrapist]

Thanks, but no apology necessary. I should have specified VA polls when replying to Alter’s national polls comment.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Rasmussen poll had BO up by only 3 in VA on Monday. CNN/Time had BO up by 10.

They can’t all be right. Maybe all of them are wrong.

[impeachedrapist]

The 58% women in this poll is very high.

Yep, way too high.