Obama leads McCain by 6% in Virginia

Christopher Newport University ^ | 10-16-08 | Dr. Quentin Kidd

[NellieMae]

I know people in VA that have never voted Republican in their lives and they are voting for John McCain. I listened with amazement at a female relative talking about how well McCain did in the debate. She’s never voted anything but democrat. Gave me renewed hope for VA.

[Perdogg]

Per CNN 2004

DEM 35
GOP 39
IND 26

MALE 46
FEMALE 54

According to this poll the GOP is underweighted by 10%

[jveritas]

Correct and women are weighted by 16 points over men in this poll when they were only 8 points over man in 2004.

[Perdogg]

In 1972 the State Legislator fearing George McGovern, required that you had to vote for the Governor separately from the straight party ticket.

[CaliforniaCon]

RE: “You won’t believe this, but some a$$holes did a “ding-dong-ditch on my house. (within the last 15 min, I walked outside but it is really dark and couldn’t see anyone). They rang my doorbell and left a note which read “ vote for obama- the clown posse” I guess they are mad that this family has a McCain/Palin placard in our yard. Or maybe they think because the mom of the household is black we have to vote for Obama. Well, if I catch anyone on my porch again, I’m calling the police. My 13 year old son is pissed.”

*****

Good for you for displaying the yard sign!!! — but be careful when going outside in the dark like that — sounds like a harmless kids’ prank but you never know. I’m glad your son is p*ssed!

[TwS88]

I live in VA and I dont believe the polls.. I say VA will go McCain by at least 4-5%

[kesg]

None.

For what it’s worth, in 2004 the vote in Virginia was male 46% (Bush 59-40), Female 54% (50-50). Party breakdown was D 35, R 39, I 26, with the Independents going for Bush 54-44. Bush won Virginia by 8 points.

Again, Virginia is one of those red states that McCain can take for granted, although I think McCain will end up winning by 5-8 points. There has been lots of poll fraud going on in Virginia during this election cycle.

[WestFlorida]

And the party breakdown in 2004 was 39%R 35%D 26%I
2006 was 39%R 36%D 25%I. So how do they justify A TEN POINT LOWER TURNOUT FOR REPUBLICANS?!?!?!?!

300,000 new voter registrations in VA. VA does not register by party, so even if you assume 80% of these voters are Dems, and 75% vote on 11/4(which would be an alltime record v\for new voters, and a record by a wide margin), That still could not account for anywhere near 10 points fewer Republicans.

[Alter Kaker]

You cannot compare a 2004 poll to now.

I was replying to a poster who did just that.

It is important to look only at polls that have two non-incumbents running. Those years were 1968, 1988 and 2000, I believe. People, deep down, are afraid of change, so unless the President is utterly incompetent, as Jimmy Carter was, or broke a promise to his base, as Bush senior did, they will, last minute, fall back on avoiding change.

In 1968, in a year of chaos, voters threw out the Democratic candidate, Hubert Humphrey, and opted for change.

In 2000, voters opted for change, despite peace and prosperity.

[TaxRelief]

In 1968, 1988 and 2000 voters had to choose between two new candidates, so change was forced upon them, whether they wanted it or not.

[grey_whiskers]

In 2004, Real Clear Politics' final average of the polls gave the following:

Final.

This is three weeks out.

Stop falling for, and spreading, liberal agitprop.

Cheers!

[TaxRelief]

Which state was that?

[ovrtaxt]

Obama up 6% And Palin just had two events in VA that pulled 30,000 people each? Yeah right.

[America_Right]

I’m half-kidding, but the democrats do have a electoral strategy, and it does involve taking over states, one by one. If we fail to react to it, we’ll inevitably be devoured.

I don't know if it is really a strategy on their part. I think it is because they have screwed up their own blue state so badly that they need to move into red states to stay prosperous. Unfortunately, they are too stupid to realize that if they keep voting Dem, the nice red state that they now call their home will go down the same tube that the blue state they had left behind did.

[rwfromkansas]

ARe there any other polls? We need to be worried about Virginia. The media acts like O is way ahead there, but are there other polls showing it closer than this?

If Virginia goes Dem, it will be almost impossible to win.

[rwfromkansas]

The point is, the RCP average had Bush winning in Sept. and October.

Not for McCain this time, and it is dang scary. I still think we win.

[tanknetter]

In the past 2 years, VA has snagged itself a Dem for a governor and a liberal senator who beat an incumbent many thought was a potential presidential candidate.

Warner, Kaine and Webb didn't run as Liberals. They ran as Conservative Dems and managed to successfully "push" (as in create perceptions) that the Republicans they faced were far, far out on the fringe (except with Warner/Early - Early was just percieved as being asleep, which may have been true). Kaine didn't win VA ... Kilgore LOST VA by making a couple really idiotic comments (invoking Hitler analogies) that only served to reinforce the belief that he was "out there". Webb didn't win VA ... Allen LOST VA by making a couple really idiotic comments (Macaca, Ham Sandwich, etc) that only served to reinforce the belief that he was "out there".

NoVA is definitely trending blue, which is making the entire state trend purple. But not that blue ... in a normal election cycle a GOP moderate like Tom Davis could still be expected to hold his seat, and there's no way that a radical Liberal like Obama could win statewide. But unless McCain gets off the ball and starts spending up some of his alleged war chest here this isn't going to be a "normal" election cycle.

[rfp1234]

Do you know what the voter registration ratio is in Va?

If I recall correctly, VA does not ask voters to indicate any party preference on the registration form. I wish they had the same rule here in Schwarzifornia.

[grey_whiskers]

Now go see if you can find the internals of the polls for Bush, and compare them to the polls this time around...

Cheers!