Gallup is a joke. Why don’t they just say we’re betting on Obama and leave it at that.
The more they see Obama the more they are afraid of him.
best polling news in a freaking month.
yeahooooooooooooo
likely voters within MOE...
We see. ;-)
I love these headlines! If the positions were reversed:
Obama erodes McCain’s lead, can McCain stave off a resurgent Obama?
That should tell you how these pollsters view this race IMHO.
Your title says +1.
Here are some new gems from Gallup about their NEW polling assumptions:
Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Expanded)
Results based on a three-day rolling average
October 14, 2008
Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of likely voters who say they would support each candidate when that group is defined solely on the basis of respondents self-professed likelihood to vote in the 2008 presidential election. This expanded group includes about two-thirds of the general public, a significantly higher proportion than has turned out in any recent election.
Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)
Results based on a three-day rolling average
October 14, 2008
Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of likely voters who say they would support each candidate when that group is defined based on respondents self-reported past voting behavior, as well as current voting intentions for the 2008 presidential election. This more tightly defined group includes about 60% of the general public, somewhat greater than the typical 50% to 55% who have turned out in recent presidential elections.
take notice. Gallup has changed the assumptions of their polling to show no less than 60% voter turnout. The expanded model assumes close to 70%!
That is an absurd assumption which has no empirical basis. This is proof positive of the fix that is in on polling. I think McCain may have a 10 point lead based on this nonsense.
3 point difference! More proof the 14 pt polls are BS outliars. Gallop-3 Zogby-4 Rasmussen-6, not bad at all.
Isn’t it great one poll, consits now of three or four different polls, plus the internals.