Posted on 10/15/2008 10:09:28 AM PDT by Longstreet63
Gallup Daily: Before Final Debate, Obama Leads by 7 NEW October 15, 2008 Heading into tonight’s final presidential debate, national registered voters continue to prefer Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) for president.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Gallup is a joke. Why don’t they just say we’re betting on Obama and leave it at that.
The more they see Obama the more they are afraid of him.
best polling news in a freaking month.
yeahooooooooooooo
likely voters within MOE...
We see. ;-)
I love these headlines! If the positions were reversed:
Obama erodes McCain’s lead, can McCain stave off a resurgent Obama?
That should tell you how these pollsters view this race IMHO.
They might be a joke but they’ve been trending McCain that last 3 days...look at the Likely II model which is based on the 2004 and 2006 elections...the darn thing is a dead heat...
Your title says +1.
Ah...I forgot about you, I apologize.... :)
Here are some new gems from Gallup about their NEW polling assumptions:
Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Expanded)
Results based on a three-day rolling average
October 14, 2008
Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of “likely voters” who say they would support each candidate when that group is defined solely on the basis of respondents’ self-professed likelihood to vote in the 2008 presidential election. This expanded group includes about two-thirds of the general public, a significantly higher proportion than has turned out in any recent election.
Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)
Results based on a three-day rolling average
October 14, 2008
Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of “likely voters” who say they would support each candidate when that group is defined based on respondents’ self-reported past voting behavior, as well as current voting intentions for the 2008 presidential election. This more tightly defined group includes about 60% of the general public, somewhat greater than the typical 50% to 55% who have turned out in recent presidential elections.
take notice. Gallup has changed the assumptions of their polling to show no less than 60% voter turnout. The expanded model assumes close to 70%!
That is an absurd assumption which has no empirical basis. This is proof positive of the fix that is in on polling. I think McCain may have a 10 point lead based on this nonsense.
3 point difference! More proof the 14 pt polls are BS outliars. Gallop-3 Zogby-4 Rasmussen-6, not bad at all.
It has +1 for McCain and -1 for Obama in two of the thre models which is a net 2 point pickup...and a +1 for McCain and -2 for Obama for the other model which is a net 3 pickup...
It has +1 for McCain and -1 for Obama in two of the thre models which is a net 2 point pickup...and a +1 for McCain and -2 for Obama for the other model which is a net 3 pickup...
Please see my post above. Model II does not work on 2004 assumptions.
This is a radical re-engineering of polling by Gallup.
if you’re talking about the 49-46 model, then it assumes traditional turn-out which is the 2004 election as well...that’s all I meant...
Their registered voter model is tighter than their likely I voter model. Nutty but I take your point on the trends. Unfortunately Sarah Palin made no mention of Ayers, Wright or Rezko in New Hampshire today.
I find it funny that we’re campaigning in NH and PA less than 3 weeks before the election and polls in those 2 states show that we’re down +10 or more...what do you think? Maybe the polls are way off, huh? I think so...
Obama internals have hi, up 2 in Pa. I suspect NH can go either way. Mccain is also in Maine. McCain changes the landscape. And Palin draws supporters to the polls in droves. Maybe just as much as Obama in the new voter department if you ask me.
Monday +11% Dow day is filtering into the polls. Unfortunately, the Monday market rebound is being erased today.
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