He won't be the only one:
Posted on 10/14/2008 11:02:58 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
According to the internals I just received from Gallup, they over sampled once again for Republicans in their latest poll. The LV sample they used for that hard-to-believe 8% lead for Bush sure enough had 3% more Republicans than Democrats, and the RV sample had 2% more Republicans than Democrats.
(Excerpt) Read more at theleftcoaster.com ...
Ended up it was 37 vs 37 in 2004.
Most all the polls are weighting dems 6-14% advantage in 2008 if I have been keeping track.
Honestly, how can anyone take these polls serious with that extreme of over sampling of dems????
The latest NYSlimes and cBS poll has the Dems weighted at 37.47%, the Indies @ 33.3%, and the little Repubs @ 29.15%
Oh, they show Obama with a 14% lead 53% to 39%.
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/oct08b-politics.pdf
Since when did we become a third party? That poll is pure balogna.
They can't.
These polls are so obviously skewed that the only possible reason for releasing them is to depress Republican turnout.
It is also wise to remember that the pollsters are usually hired by media companies who have a vested interest in keeping the race close, so they can get political ad buys from both sides until the bitter end.
They're worthless, in other words.
These polls could have the reverse effect of depressing Rat turnout.
If anyone thinks there is a lack of enthusiasm on our side, just look at Palin’s rallies.
The world will be shocked Nov. 5th to see a McCain victory.
And when you look at Pennsylvania, for example, it's hard to ignore the SurveyUSA polling that indicates 1 in 5 Republicans is going for Obama. Plus, Republican registration has actually DROPPED by 28,000+ since last year, while Democrats have increased by more than half a million! "Statewide, Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 1,170,000 voters. The margin a year ago was about 638,000."
Colleagues of mine believe Sen. McCain is throwing the election, based on his mediocre performance and half-hearted attacks that come across as "angry old man" rather than delivering knockout blows. Squandering the only chance to talk to the electorate without the MSM filter (debates), he has put himself deeply in the hole--regardless of sampling bias. He MUST hit hard now.
He isn’t throwing the election. He just can’t decide whose advice to take. He changes the direction of the campaign every other day which is making him appear wishy-washy with voters. He should just make a decision and stick to it. At least Sarah is consistent with her message.
Jennings will rise from the grave to declare it a Hissy fit.
The only good part would be that (hopefully) most of those fake voters wouldn't actually be able to vote, but it does skew what the pollsters use for their "fudge factors", definitely.
The pollsters will only "clarify" their obvious error after the fact.
The only poll that matters anyway is the one that takes place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Registered Democrats, as in, ACORN registered Democrats.
There is no way to even guess what the real percentage of Dems is.
Some element of the mainstream media is involved in almost every one of the polls - and we KNOW what their mission is - so they cannot be considered reliable.
Nonetheless, McCain needs to do some serious testicle-kicking tonight.
In my state, in the primary (Feb 4th), both my wife and I took a dem ballot and voted for Obama as opposed to our usual case of taking a Republican ballot. Why?
Well for one, our choice, Fred Thompson was already out. The remaining candidates: Guiliani, Huckabee, McCain and Romney, did nothing for us. My state was projecting Huckabee to win. We both absolutely hate the Clintons, and at the time, she was the already coronated winner. So we voted Obama to “throw a monkey-wrench in the gears” of the dems primary. We were not the only ones to do this. Many, many conservative friends of ours confessed to the same.
After this Rush started Operation Chaos. Then the voting for either Obama or Hillary really took off. In my state we have open voting. You simply select the ballot of the party you want to vote for. Other states required registering.
Perhaps (and we'll never really know) millions of Republicans voted in the dem primaries for the same reason we did. Remember that McCain had sewed up the primary contest months before the dems did.
Let’s not overlook the fact that the article linked to had Bush ahead. The lib was whining because Republicans were over sampled and that Kerry was actually ahead. Turns out Bush did win. Gallup was right; and they may very well be right today.
This election has some real curve balls in it. Gen Y is entering the fray in record numbers, first black candidate, Bradley effect, etc. That is why the polls are all over the board, but one thing they all agree on, Obama is ahead.
McCain has been all over the board, has no consistent message and frankly, is running a campaign reminiscent of Kerry. Tonight is McCain’s last chance to find a groove and connect with voters. Voters have to be given a reason to vote *for* him.
“1 in 5 Republicans is going for Obama”
How could anyone take a stat like that seriously ?
McCain has consistently said he is going to cut pork barrel spending, cut corporate taxes, give a $5,000 health credit to families, support traditional marriage and continue the WOT. So I don't know how you can say he's not consistent.
It's the other guy who's flip-flopped all over the place.
He won't be the only one:
The actual percentage of REGISTERED Republicans that will vote for Obama is at or below 5%. The actual percentage of conservatives or conservative-leaning Republicans who will vote for Obama is 0%.
The vast majority of voters who are undecided don't know what a $5,000 tax credit on health benefits means to them. Not nearly as effective as the "change Washington" and "we can't afford 4 more years." The A, B and C students have in large part decided who they are going to vote for. The Obama ads paint him as the conservative in this race and he is winning at the moment.
>How could anyone take a stat like that seriously ?
By working call banks and hearing Republicans tell you that themselves, along with having Republican neighbors and colleagues say the same.
It's not like it's unexpected. The loathing of George W. Bush has led many PA Republicans to switch parties (on call banks in 2004, I would often get an earful from angry Republicans), meaning that while Dem registrations have skyrocketed, the GOP registrations are actually going DOWN overall, despite registration drives.
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