The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
Obama/Biden: 47%
McCain/Palin: 41%
Undec 9%
—After a tightening earlier in the week, Obama has re-opened a 6-pt. lead over McCain. This was likely driven by the fact that Obama has expanded his lead among women voters. He now holds a 9 pt. advantage over McCain with women. He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men.
—Among the 66% of voters who say the economy is their #1 issue, Obama has a 13-pt advantage. And he holds a 6-pt. lead - 44-38% - on the question of who’d do the best job handling the economy. In yesterday’s poll, the two were tied on this question.
—Palin’s approval ratings are also sliding and she has almost a 1-1 fav/unfav rating, with 46% rating her favorably and 43% rating her unfavorably.
Today’s Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/6-8 by FD, surveyed 852 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%
That's a crapload of movement for one day.
I am surprised that Palin’s numbers are down. She is still attracting huge crowds.
5% oversample of Dems. Interesting.
Damn. The emotional roller coaster continues. Just minutes ago I was encouraged by Battleground.
Still it is hard to believe this many people change their mind on a daily basis. Some of those number swings are stunning.
Hotline has lost credibility with such erratic movement in its poll. For two days in a row, it had McCain virtually tied with Obama on the economy and then today it’s +6 for Obama. I also don’t believe men are going for Obama over McCain or that Sarah is slipping in approval.
He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men.
This does not makes sense. I cannot see guys voting for Obama. Hell, even the Log Cabin Gay guys are voting for McCain...lol. This particular survey is crap. He might be ahead with woman but no way by men.
These jerks want us to believe that Jeremiah Wright apprentice is getting more votes among men than Bill Clinton got in 1992, and 1996, and Gore got in 2000, and Kerry got in 2004.
Yep...at least 2-3% too many Democrats, but probably closer to 4% too many (Democrats haven't exceeded 37% in any election cycle since 2000, and that includes 2006). The Republican number is about right. If you subtract 3 extra points from the Dems and then add them to the Independent column, the real "lead" in this poll is more like 46-44 or thereabouts. If you subtract an additional point to match the 2006 voter turnout, it's more like 46-45. And if you use the 2004 turnout (our last Presidential election), McCain actually pulls ahead slightly.
41%D, 36%R, 18%: There you go. Why in the hell would a pollster use this crap when in 2004 it was an even split?