Posted on 10/08/2008 6:59:06 AM PDT by The G Man
I picked up on some of the Corsi events in Kenya after my reply. He will be with Hannity today on the radio as well as TV.
National polls mean absolutely nothing. McCain may be gaining in Texas for all we know. The only polls which matter are battleground state polls. And, for now, those are still very bad. McCain needs to have Palin step it up big time this week on Ayers, Rezko and Wright, and be more prepared for a more personable, more specific presentation in the next debate.
Sarah is the only reason McCain is still in this thing. She connects with the folks in a way that no other politician in this country can.
God blessed us with her.
i don’t think so. He was already ahead by 20 - there wasn’t much room to improve - this suggests improvement where they are campaigning (FL, OH, PA, VA). No one at least here in Dallas seems to even care that an election is occurring at least based on bumper stickers and yard signs. Nada for either candidate - we didn’t put any up for fear of vandals and I know others feel the same way. Very few talk politics - people already know how they’re voting. So he didn’t go from 20 up to 30 up in TX - doesn’t work that way.
“And the Dallas Cowboys are trending 53-0 Obama...in the state of Nevada.”
LOL. Nice.
“I picked up on some of the Corsi events in Kenya after my reply. He will be with Hannity today on the radio as well as TV.”
WONDERFUL!!!!
What great timing! With the polls starting to trend slightly before this debate it seems obvious that the insight lately into Obamas relationship with Ayers and Palin stumping on this topic....might just be what is bringing Obamas numbers down and McCain up. With Corsi’s recent hold and publicity from Kenya what a good time to get the word out on Obama/Odinga relationship along with the video on youtube and pictures to confirm. Amazing this is not a major news story!!!Hope it will be after Hannity. Thanks for the post.
no way can obama be only two points inPA and then be down by double digits in a week.
N o way can I see NC or IN being swing states either.
I’m in Florida and it’s all MCain where I am infact I know of not one person who is for obama, no yard signs for obama, course i’m in the north part of the state
these polls are just too way off
Hysterical accusations is one thing....defending conservatism and the truth is another.
LOL. Nice.
Thanks...glad to see someone understood my point.
Poll up, poll down....
FIGHT FOR IT!
Doesn’t matter.
We don’t fight, we cannot win!
GIVE THEM HELL!
If you haven’t pissed a liberal off today, you wasted your day!
Donate, contribute, spread the word, volunteer, blog with effective and pointed arguments where undecideds can see, be civil always, let the Obamunists namecall. It serves them not.
We can win.
Do not let polls dictate your belief in that.
Fight, then you can look yourself in the mirror no matter what happens.
ACORN is working feverishly to do just that.
“Thanks...glad to see someone understood my point.”
I've already had a couple cups of coffee.....
Love your logic. How many percentage points do you think
it would have been worth if Sen. McCain had opened the debate with “Nice to see you. Can I call you Hussein?”
Very good analysis. I think McCain will win too.....
The last VA poll was bogus. I think it's close, but do not see this southern state going to Obama.
That said, it's still close, and the swing of 1-2% across the board could flip PA, MN, maybe WI and NH. But I don't see any scenario with more than about 290-300 EVs going to McCain.
Obama really shouldn’t win VA. I looked back at the 2004 numbers and readjusted the numbers in northern Virginia to give Kerry the same percentages that Jim Webb got. Bush still won. I readjusted them again to give Kerry the same 60% in Fairfax County that Governor Kaine got. If the rest of the state remained static, Bush still won by five points. Obama would have to win perhaps close to 80% in Fairfax to be assured of a win, which is not even a margin that many urban counties can provide. Or he needs to take votes from downstate, and I don’t see how he does that, especially since I expect him to do worse in places like southwest VA, with the mining counties, or the military-influenced Atlantic Coast counties where McCain could run even better than Bush, or the city of Virginia Beach, where Bush won by 20 points (Allen in 06 only won it by 5, which is a big clue of how he lost to Webb).
In 2006, I kept saying the polls were wrong, and they were right. But I had no internal numbers to base my hunch on---just the traditional polling leftward bias. This time, I think the flaw in the polls is discernable in their manipulation of voter ID numbers.
A brilliant analysis, JMack!
But i don’t think you’re right with your RDAG Effect.
That would leave almost no one to vote for Nobama.
The Bradley effect is not a racist phenomenon at all ... except derivatively.
It is voters not wanting pollsters to TAKE THEM to be racist
when they oppose for policy reasons - which is quite a different matter.
Trouble is, when i start with the Bush-Kerry actuals
and then add all your factors,
my arithmetic points to about a 90-10 win.
So it must be that the Big Media effect
is along the lines of 35 points, for O.
Has anyone considered that it’s in the pollster’s best interests to have the polls tight all the way?
Why bother with polls if one candidate is consistently showing 6-10% ahead? The pollsters stay in business by ‘predicting’ close races.
The polls don’t matter until a week out. That’s when the pollsters start being honest, because they want to accurately predict the winner.
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