[manc]

no way can obama be only two points inPA and then be down by double digits in a week.

N o way can I see NC or IN being swing states either.

I’m in Florida and it’s all MCain where I am infact I know of not one person who is for obama, no yard signs for obama, course i’m in the north part of the state

these polls are just too way off

[LS]

On my 'board,'---and I can be wrong, and was wrong in 06, but dead on with all the senate races in 02 and 04---I have FL and OH and MO and KY and IN and NC safe. I have a little concern about NV, though not much. It's a red, western state and I can't see Obama really winning this. I'm down to only VA and CO, and McCain recently took his first lead in a long time in CO.

The last VA poll was bogus. I think it's close, but do not see this southern state going to Obama.

That said, it's still close, and the swing of 1-2% across the board could flip PA, MN, maybe WI and NH. But I don't see any scenario with more than about 290-300 EVs going to McCain.