A brilliant analysis, JMack!
But i don’t think you’re right with your RDAG Effect.
That would leave almost no one to vote for Nobama.
The Bradley effect is not a racist phenomenon at all ... except derivatively.
It is voters not wanting pollsters to TAKE THEM to be racist
when they oppose for policy reasons - which is quite a different matter.
Trouble is, when i start with the Bush-Kerry actuals
and then add all your factors,
my arithmetic points to about a 90-10 win.
So it must be that the Big Media effect
is along the lines of 35 points, for O.