Posted on 10/02/2008 11:32:39 AM PDT by paul544
John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
You're right about how close 2006 really was. As Dubya said, there were a lot of close races, but they all broke one way, so in the end it was a collective butt whoopin' (or however he phrased it). That's why I'm so fired up about the GOP potentially knocking off a LOT of vulnerable freshman Dems in GOP-leaning or split districts. But of course the negative Nellies pooh-pooh such a thought.
Is this true? If so, McCain deserves to loose. You dont pull out while your opponent is inching ahead in the polls, thus, psychologically giving them the appearance of momentum! That is stupid.
Hopefully the Mccain team could find a decent, non-biased research outfit to conduct their polling.I’m sure they looked at their own polling in combination with the publicly available polls before making this decision.
This may be the public financing thing coming back to haunt him.
For those wondering about the timing on this, it’s because the MSM will spin this as an admission of defeat, but the coverage of this will get lost in the debate coverage.
Rove was on FoxNews earlier and he rattled off a number of states where Obama has done the same thing, having written them off. You didn’t hear a peep about that in the media.
If McCain’s game plan works without Michigan, that’s fine with me.
I can’t help but agree with you. Wrong man at the wrong time. Republicans can’t afford to field any more weak candidates, assuming they’ll ever get another chance.
I’m assuming they got their supply from the recent BurningMan fest. Actually I went to a Burning Man once a while back and it was actually pretty fun (and yes, funny). Black Rock desert if I recall.
I have heard internet rumors that McCain may give up in WI, PA, and MN, and only focus on FL, OH, and MO.
EAST SIDE Dems are BAD news here in MI (i.e.,Detroit - Hey, Canada want a free city and your golden girl Grandholm back??). Too dumb to see noses in front of their faces, Granholm Koolaide drinkers and blind auto and teacher union followers. Kills the rest of state most of the time - makes us WEST SIDERS ticked.
Given this history, I’m not happy with but understand the move to solidify elsewhere.
Meanwhile, we on the state’s west will fight on and be HEARD! KEEP THE FAITH EVERYBODY!
I agree Perdogg. The Media knows that Obama will lose if he does not have a 6% to 8& lead the weekend before the election.
Okay now Sarah did a great job last night and we cleared one hurdle. The Bailout is next, and then the final phase of the campaign begins.
It is time for Lieutenant McCain to fight like it is 1968.
All the polling has gone the other way, including Rasmussen’s, hardly a shill for the Rats. Even if one disagrees with the party ID breakdown, the trends have gone heavily against McCain in every poll we have seen. What you are stating here does not seem plausible. I also have not seen anything of the sort mentioned anywhere. Do you have a link with any kind of mention of this internal polling you are referring to here?
I seriously doubt MN is in that mix, as it showed some good news for McCain just last night. Wisconsin is also still close and could be a pickup opportunity. PA is a longshot and the more money is spent there, the less is available in states McCain has to hold, so you may be correct about PA, but probably not about WI and MN.
I saw the internal FL poll mentioned on Politico’s Playbook, but I think it’s likely their polling was done before Wall Street woes. Still, there’s no way Obama has a significant lead in Florida. More likely it’s tied or Mccain ahead by a few %.
the trends have gone heavily against McCain in every poll we have seen.
Sure, if one's a drama queen. The polls have closed. Shocking!! In a state that's normally a battleground. Shocking! And curiously, these polls all closed immediately after Obama (who was trailing by a consistent 3-6 points in FL) announced he was making a big push down there.
Please take note of my comments on 20 and 21 Sep:
20 Sep: "Stand by over the next several days for some organization to trot out a poll showing FL as a dead heat."
21 Sep: "Well, that didn't take long."
Notice the title of that thread: Obama Says If He Wins Florida, He Wins the White House
Very convenient, huh? :-)
Look, this state has been a close state for a very long time, look at the final results over the last 16 years. The entire 2000 election was decided by Florida and a difference of a few hundred votes. You are trying to tell me that this state, the weakest ‘committed’ of all large red states aside from maybe Ohio, is as solid a Republican state as can be and it is ok for Obama to spend $5 Million on advertising while McCain spends nothing, “not a cent?” That is ridiculous.
The question you should ask is when that 7% internal poll was in the field, as a lot has changed over the last 10 to 12 days, and not a single poll conducted over the last 2 weeks has shown even remotely anything close to that, quite the opposite. Even Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, showed only a 3% McCain lead more than 10 days ago, which is a tie within the MoE.
It is absolutely not ok in a down year for Republicans to leave the entire advertising arena in a pivotal, extremely close state like Florida to the opponent to the tune of 5 Million Dollars to “not a cent.” Bush spent mightily here both cycles, a ton of ads 2 months out. He knew how important it was to win this pivotal state. He narrowly won here both times, and it made the difference. McCain can’t afford to sit on an imaginary lead and do nothing while voters in the state are being bombarded with Obamba ads left and right, the state is in worse economical shape it has been in for decades, and our Republican governor is offering no help at all.
I understand that the impulse is to stick heads into sand and pretend it is all ok, all polls are wrong, everything is ok. But the reality in this state is different than you paint, and if McCain does not start competing for this state in earnest and matches Obama’s advertising expenditures here, the state may very well flip, unnecessarily.
Why spend money on Pennsylvania, which promises a very low percentage return, when the money is sorely needed here?
I am wondering why he is going to California..isn’t there a rally there soon? That is a waste of time.
Your reading comprehension skills suck. You have more than once tried to claim I said something I didn’t. I’m done with you, newbie. Go freak out elsewhere. You’ll find plenty of company.
I think it is probably tied, but so the more reason for McCain to have a major ad presence here, matching Obama Dollar for Dollar. I want to see McCain ads as frequently as the Obama ads have been on. TV ads work. Florida and Ohio are once again pivotal states, probably the difference makers once again.
Meanwhile, McCain wastes time and resources in Pennsylvania, Iowa? Pour it in here, where it is needed.
My “reading comprehension skills”?
You stated that a month ago you read that Obama spent $5 Million while McCain spent nothing. You claimed that McCain led in Florida polls and is still leading in Florida polls. You called it “smart use of money.”
McCain no longer leads Florida polls. Out of the last 7 polls Obama leads in 5, ties in 1, and in the other McCain has a statistically insignificant 1% lead. Even the widely respected pollster Mason-Dixon is giving Obama a lead in Florida dating back to 9/16-9/18. At best the state is a tie for McCain.
There is nothing smart about coming in late to douse the flames after a lead vanishes. Michigan had to be shelved, and Pennsylvania should be shelved, if money is so tight that for a month Obamba is allowed to run ads unencumbered and unanswered in a state as pivotal as Florida until polls for the state flip in the other direction.
I hope Lowry is right.
Sarah Palin disagrees with this and said today that she wants to go campaign in Michigan along with her husband. I think it is a terrific idea.
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