Posted on 09/30/2008 6:37:15 AM PDT by ubaldus
Back to O +6
Other daily trackers:
Gallup 0 50 - M 42 (yday)
Hotline O 47 - M 42 (yday)
R2000 O 51 - M 41 (warning - Kos' poll, sample requires -3 pt adjustment imo)
Battleground O 46 - M48 (!?)
Wow..can’t polish this turd. McCain needs to pull it together for the next five weeks.
I sent an email to the McCain campaign telling them they won’t see another dime of my money in donations until McCain cuts this bi-partisan crap and starts fighting back. I told them tht if McCain thinks being Ms. Congeniality is going to convince the Democrats and the liberal media to give him the White House, he truly is senile.
He's just being himself.
What’s disturbing about this is Obama is getting straight 50+ several days in a row. Looks like the beginnings of a hardening of public opinion.
I have taken Rasmussen with a large grain of salt since the 2000 election, mainly due to the fact that his polling was largely wrong and Rasmussen Reports even kind of disappeared after he (to his credit) fell on his sword for his polling being so flawed.
Right, but wasn’t Ras nearly spot-on in ‘04?
Rasmussen for whatever reason is targeting his sample for 39% Ds and 33% Rs... and 27% Ind. Actual 2004 turnouts were 37% D, 37% R and 26% I, so you need to understand that based on this, that if turnouts are the same in 08 as they were in 04, you’d have to add 4% to McCain and take 2% from Fauxbama.
Which at 51 to 45 = 49 to 48 after adjusting. What has happened is some obvious tightening over the last week or two in the race, but hardly “is it over”.
We’re doomed, i tells ya
This financial crisis is giving that empty suit Obama credit when he deserves none.
Your turnout numbers are from the 2004 election. The most recent turnout numbers we have are from the 2006 election, which were 42 D, 36 R. http://www.rhodescook.com/analysis.html
The last time the Dems had such a high turnout in a midterm election was in 1990. And we all know what happened two years later.
Given a six point spread in the most recent election, Ras’ numbers are not out of line.
As for Battleground, they are NOT WEIGHTING for age, something every other pollster I can think of does. I have no idea why they would do such a thing, since not weighting for demographics is borderline polling malpractice. That’s why they’re an outlier.
While I think the race is closer than most polls say, the McCain campaign has completely blown it the last week, especially in the early part of the debate. He won the foreign policy part, but that really doesn’t matter right now. He did not show leadership on the financial issue when we needed it most. He should have called the bailout package the sham that is was, and he should have called down Paulson as having conflict of interest, all of which would have killed the bailout plan. He should have backed the House Republican’s alternate plan. Of course, 0bama showed no leadership either, but he didn’t need to. I expect Palin is being setup to get creamed on Thursday, which will complete the McCain implosion.
I don’t like the way this is turning out for McCain, but this is just the way I see it. I think they can turn this around, but it won’t be easy.
DOOMED!
Right. The public blames Bush and Republicans for this, and that’s McCain’s fault, and the Republican’s fault for not hitting back.
Pelosi and Obama killed the bill to help get Obama elected .
Read all about it.
http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=13967
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/
Folks here better get it through their minds that as long as Wall Street is on the front page because of no rescue package, McCain is going to lose.
There is no message that will fix that. The voters have decided who is to blame and that decision is a done deal. They aren’t reading or listening anymore to explanations to the contrary.
Either a package gets passed, before Saturday, or Obama picks 2 USSC Justices, abandons the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world in the century when it runs out, raises taxes by letting Bush’s cuts expire, starts the ball rolling towards slavery reparations and ensures gay marriage is the law of the land forever. You might want to start thinking about gay reparations, too, as a long time persecuted group. He’ll go that route as well.
Choose.
Frankly, I think that in this environment it is very difficult to know what the mood of the electorate is. We face grave threats abroad and at home. Barry is a callow, empty suit. the question is when we go into the booth, who are we gonna go with. I still don’t think that Barry has closed the deal.
Its over.
McCain should have come out in support of the House Pubs that voted no. He should have pointed out how these bailouts have all been insider deals (look at the relationship between Goldman Saks and AIG). He should have come out and explained what some of the alternatives are that don't involve 100's of billions of dollars and how corruption inside DC, Freddie & Fannie, and wall street caused this problem.
Instead of doing this and being the champion of middle America he says we should be bi-partisan and pass the bail out!
Come on McCain get it together!
the electorate is very angry right now
and still trying to figure out what this all means
its a shock that obambi is up only by 6 tbh
things are going to settle down this week...but McCain really needs a good cycle on message...and to pound enough doubt into the electorate about obambi- more rev wright please.
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