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Your turnout numbers are from the 2004 election. The most recent turnout numbers we have are from the 2006 election, which were 42 D, 36 R. http://www.rhodescook.com/analysis.html

The last time the Dems had such a high turnout in a midterm election was in 1990. And we all know what happened two years later.

Given a six point spread in the most recent election, Ras’ numbers are not out of line.

As for Battleground, they are NOT WEIGHTING for age, something every other pollster I can think of does. I have no idea why they would do such a thing, since not weighting for demographics is borderline polling malpractice. That’s why they’re an outlier.

The 2006 numbers were inflated because of GOP defections (mostly stay-at-home voters). I doubt we'll see such defections this time around, as McCain holds over 90% of his party - something extra-galaxy-like compared to what the GOP held of their own party in 2006.

It is still highly unlikely that Barack Obama just absolutely obliterates history and turns out a 150% better party ID turnout gap than has ever happened before in one election. Six percent is too high.

You might - might - be able to sell me on 2.5% to 3.5%. Maybe, but I'd even doubt that. The simple truth is: If six percent is accurate, we should be saving our money and efforts for more constructive things, because this race absolutely CANNOT be won.

If Barack Obama has succeeded in staggering the National curve 6% in one election, then we really never had any chance of either winning the White House or stemming near-Supermajorities for the Democrats. It was never possible for even one second.

Six percent is too high. The base is too motivated now.