Posted on 09/30/2008 6:37:15 AM PDT by ubaldus
The reason the market didn’t crash as predicted - there is no crisis.
Traders around the world aren’t expecting the bailout to pass anymore.
So you’re premise can’t be right. You’re argument may be its better to support Polosi now, before she shoots herself and the country. These arguments never make sense to me.
Yes, I could not agree more.
The whole election comes down to this. McCain and Palin need to spend the next 5 weeks on the stump nailing Obama on issues that appeal to Red States.
The one advantage McCain has is that he needs to only hold on to Bush States, and a firefight of Higher Taxes and Reverend Wright will do that.
Correcting myself, McCain is in Des Moines. It’s not on his campaign calendar, which is a mistake. Perhaps a last minute thing. Still, somebody needs to keep his calendar current on the website. How can McCain get crowds if nobody knows where he’s going to be? According to the website, his next appearance is at the Palin-Biden debate.
McCain/Palin need to come here to southeast VA. The Hampton Roads region is their best hope for carrying this state. Sarah was tentatively scheduled to come here on the 18th, but had to cancel. Iowa’s nearly gone, but VA is very much still in play. They need to bring the campaign out here, and SOON.
if the probabilty of “no bailout” becomes seriuos (so far, it is not), you’ll see 25-30% drop in the markets within 2 weeks, and overnight Libor hitting 6-7% and staying there for a while.
There will be a bailout. May be not all 700bln at once, perhaps.
Here’s what I’m thinking:
The race isn’t over yet. Part of being a good strategist is knowing when to move and considering the w-h-o-l-e plan. Obama/Biden are loose cannons, who speak then think! I don’t think Mccain and “W” will let him off as easy as it appears. It’s when you think your safe that your enemy comes and attacks- when you least expect it. WATCH OUT Obama they’re gonna getcha!!(HOPEFULLY!)
Is there some reason why you’re citing the Daily Kos poll?
Not to mention that he may get the filibuster proof senate needed to ram a Supreme Court packing pill through.
Sorry the market is just being repriced. This is a free market process that occurs naturally. It needs to occur.
I and others I’m sure can’t wait to get in after the prepricing takes place.
“....but after 8 years of their arch nemesis in the White House, so is the Dem base, something Freepers completely ignore....”
Seriously? They brought consecutive record turnouts! In 2004 they would have sold their first borns collectively to beat Bush.
Nobody is underestimating their turnout. We’re saying they haven’t moved the entire electorate 6%.
>> Is there some reason why you’re citing the Daily Kos poll?
Yes, it’s another data point and they post complete internals every day. When I reweigh the sample to more realistic racial breakdown, I get O 50 - M 43, which is very consistent with other trackers.
The way it is, it tilts Dem by 3 pts or so (imo). Or maybe they (R2000) are the best pollsters in the business - we’ll see in November. Either way, I don’t see any reason to ignore the data.
Gallup is +6 today, 2 pt gain for McCain.
Don’t forget his expansion of and government funding of abortion.
“They brought consecutive record turnouts!”
And they brought even higher numbers to the primaries this year. Political scientists are saying that youth turnout in the 2008 primaries was 4.7% higher than in the 2004 election. And it’s hard for me to believe that a youth who bothered to come out for a primary will skip the general.
—4.7% higher than in the 2004 election. And it’s hard for me to believe that a youth who bothered to come out for a primary will skip the general.-—
Yes, if we believe that none of them will defect because Hillary lost — since I too remember hearing about that uptick, and that much of that crowd was SORORITY sisters out to help Hillary (Libby Dole got a small taste of this in 2000) . I distinctly remember a big Fox News report about just that.
Yes, there will be more Dem voters. Again, no it will not be 6% more. Even 4% instead of 6% greatly skewers many of these polls in our direction. You also need to remember that there was no race in 2004 - it was Kerry all the way. This time, there was a point to higher turnout.
I think that assuming a huge increase in turnout in the youth vote is unwarranted wishful thinking on the part of democrats, but I also think that assuming huge numbers of life long democrats will defect to McCain because Hillary didn’t win is also unwarranted wishful thinking on the part of Republicans.
Many of both will stay home, and the ones that do vote will likely offset each other. You know what they say about counting on new voters—don’t, and that goes for both parties.
Agreed.
My only point is:
By any reasonable, likely, realistic measure - a six point leap in turnout margin is far-fetched.
As I said, I could believe 2.5-3.5%, maybe. After that you get into 10+ MILLION votes increase in just the turnout GAP. That’s absurd, and thats all I’m saying. I don’t even think they’ve registered 10,000,000+ new Democrat voters PERIOD since the last election.
Perhaps my view is colored by the fact that these kinds of articles are in the news down here all the time.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbvoters0712sbjul12,0,7473721.story
Florida was not part of Operation Chaos and none of these new potential voters will pass any pollster’s likely voter screen.
Good article.
Believe it or not, it actually eases some of my doubts (though I have many because of the national mood).
The problem is the Dems are signing up new voters everywhere, but the Pubbies aren’t. In a tight election, where are McCain’s new voters going to come from? Bush had security moms, independents who had supported Clinton and Gore but switched to Bush after 911. They got him over the top in some key states in 2004.
McCain doesn’t have a pool of new voters to draw from. Meanwhile the Dems are registering anything that moves. A lot of those voters won’t get to the polls, but plenty will, and in a state like Florida which is dead even in the polls, they could swing it to Obama.
And, like I said, new registrants will not pass most likely voter screens.
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