I think that assuming a huge increase in turnout in the youth vote is unwarranted wishful thinking on the part of democrats, but I also think that assuming huge numbers of life long democrats will defect to McCain because Hillary didn’t win is also unwarranted wishful thinking on the part of Republicans.
Many of both will stay home, and the ones that do vote will likely offset each other. You know what they say about counting on new voters—don’t, and that goes for both parties.
Agreed.
My only point is:
By any reasonable, likely, realistic measure - a six point leap in turnout margin is far-fetched.
As I said, I could believe 2.5-3.5%, maybe. After that you get into 10+ MILLION votes increase in just the turnout GAP. That’s absurd, and thats all I’m saying. I don’t even think they’ve registered 10,000,000+ new Democrat voters PERIOD since the last election.