Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (SurveyUSA)

SurveyUSA ^ | 9/22/08 | SurveyUSA

[tatown]

Obama 51%, McCain 45% LV 38%-Dem, 33%-Rep, 22%-Ind

[Wilder Effect]

In that scenario, McCain would win with 273 electorals.

[impeachedrapist]

Obama has set up 52 campaign offices throughout the state. McCain will have 10.

And how many offices did the Obamessiah have in Montana? North Dakota?

[TNCMAXQ]

I forgot to include NV in that scenario. If that goes blue also, then McCain loses even he takes PA. That outcome is highly unlikely though. If McCain manages to take PA then he ought to win VA as well. If the once great commonwealth of VA slips over to the bad guys then it is possible McCain could still take CO and/or NV, in which case he would win assuming he scores an upset win in PA.

[mrsmith]

#the internals are even bigger crap.#

55% of respondents were college graduates LOL!
That can’t be realistic!

[pgkdan]

This is bull. Most other polls in VA have McCain up 3-5 points. democrats have gotten elected here in the last couple of elections because the Republicans running ran terrible races and the rats ran as conservatives. That won't work for Obama.

Palin was scheduled to appear in VA Beach on the 18th but she cancelled. This followed the huge rally in Northern Virginia the week before...the most left leaning part of the state. Watch what the candidates are doing. If McCain's campaign thought they were really down in VA there's no way Palin would have cancelled last week in VA Beach.

[Perdogg]

You seem to be a very negative person, do you think Obama will win?

[1035rep]

CNU Virginia Poll McCain +9
National Journal/FD McCain +7

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

I would much rather be defending states like CO and VA. Meanwhile, Barry has to to defend MN, MI, PA and WI. Until this poll, VA had been trending red, I don’t think that one poll is enought to reverse the trend.

[outofsalt]

We need to return Arlington to the District of Columbia.
(and throw in Alexandria too.)

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

If Barry wins VA, McCain will not be able to take a state like PA. But if McCain take PA, he will also probably take, in addition to VA, states like MI and WI too.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

If Barry wins VA, McCain will not be able to take a state like PA. But if McCain take PA, he will also probably take, in addition to VA, states like MI and WI too.

[1035rep]

We can include Oregon and Washington among the states Barry may have to visit. Hussein’s lead is down to 2 in Washington and down to 4 in Oregon.

[zwerni]

i highly doubt it !!

VA is a republican state. Dynamics being as they are now I see mccain winning VA by 5 points.

don’t get me wrong - he still has to campaign there.

[Red Steel]

55% of respondents were college graduates LOL! That can’t be realistic!

Virginia: Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000 29.5%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51000.html

[kabar]

Look at it this way. In 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, a former Republican with a strong military background had to go into overtime to defeat George Allen. (Granted George had the incumbency advantage, but Webb had strong name recognition.) But how would such a result translate into a 6-point Obama victory, during a Presidential year? It wouldn't. Factor in the SUSA internals, its immediate previous result with VA Presidential elections, and this poll really isn't worth worrying about.

I have lived in NoVA for 30 years and am active in GOP politics, including being a delegate to this year's state GOP convention. There have been dramatic demographic changes in VA due to migration and immigration, especially in NoVA. In 2004 Kerry won Fairfax County [the largest county in the state with about 1 million in population], the first time a Dem presidential candidate has done that in 40 years. One-third of the state's population now lives in NoVA.

VA is also about 20% black. It is projected that there will be a record turnout this year. Obama has opened offices in every county and is engaged in a huge registration effort among minorities and on the numerous college campuses throughout the state. This is the kind of ground game that destroyed Hillary in VA.

No amount of happy talk is going to change the political reality in VA. I am sure that Obama's internals gives him a great deal of hope that he can win VA. I am very very worried about VA and you should be too.

[kabar]

See my post #55.

[kabar]

See my post #55.

[mrsmith]

Thanks!

Hmm, unfortunately a realistic look at the numbers still have it too close.
It’s a sad day a navy pilot doesn’t run away with Virginia!

[xsmommy]

i live in NoVA near the nutley street metro. they had voter “registration” booths set up at the safeway at the Pan Am shopping center staffed with the Obama-ites, yesterday and another day this week i saw roaming bands of youngish people with Obama and voter registration signs around the intersection of Nutley and Lee Hwy. There was activity at the table at the safeway, and i share your concern.

[impeachedrapist]

No amount of happy talk is going to change the political reality in VA.

ROTFLMAO!!! "Experts" like you just crack me up. Why don't you go back and read about 547 of my posts concerning VA, Mr/Ms Expert? I don't agree with your pessimistic hand wringing, therefore I'm guilty of "happy talk."

You're right, Kerry did win Fairfax County. And Bush INCREASED his margin from four years earlier! What exactly is your point? 1/3 of the voters do live in northern VA. Which means, hmmm, carry the 4, that 2/3 do not!

You're very worried about VA. I am not. Guess that means that an expert like you with three decades of GOP work had better get busy.