Gallup Daily: Obama Now Leads McCain by 5 Points

Gallup ^ | 9/19/08 | Gallup

[tatown]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a five percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 49% to 44%.

[NYC Republican]

Tony- very simple... This thread is about Gallup. In response to Gallup, the poster said, who cares, it's the states that matter (I'm paraphrasing)... All I said was, IF Gallup is right and we're down by 5, then we're behind in the electoral college, so the states don't really matter at that point, cause on election day, there's NO way we could lose the popular vote by 5 and win the election

As for polling outfits, I think Ras and Gallup are equally good. Ras has come a long way since his "PortraitofAmerica" poll bombed in '00 by predicting an 8 point win for Bush... That essentially shut down that site.

The best polling outfit, IMHO, is Battleground, and they're flat (JM was up 2 yesterday, up 6 a couple of days ago, in an unaided ballot)...

So... I'd say ZeroHussein is up by 1 or 2 right now..

Does that clarify my view?

[CPT Clay]

What is the breakdown 43% Donk, 33% Pub 24% Indy?

[Norman Bates]

There are 46 days left which is an eternity. At this point there are very few things McCain could say that would guarantee a loss with that much time left - “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” is NOT one of them.

Besides McCain had a jump last night in Diageo/Hotline daily tracking. Rasmussen has them even, just like yesterday, which means given Obama’s advantage earlier this week McCain likely had a small gain there as well last night.

I don’t know if you caught McCain on the stump today but it was VERY GOOD. We are back in this game. No one holds momentum for two months. Obama has a tall order at the debates. Everything Mac said on the stump will hurt Zero in the debates. Zero never particularly fared well against Hillary. He won’t likely fare well against John McCain either.

WE ARE GOING TO WIN THIS. Believe it and work for it.

[snarkytart]

lol

[murron]

These are registered, not likely voters. Makes a huge difference. Likely voters tend to favor the Republicans.

[Wilder Effect]

Well Said.

[CPT Clay]

You poor thing, how can you be a republican in NYC?

[CPT Clay]

Obama will be desparate by the debate next week. He could say something.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Folks....let’s not flip out just yet. I’m not done yet, but I’m running some comparisons between the state-by-state polling results for the week prior to election day in 2004 vs. the actual results, to see which were most accurate. So far as it’s looking, let’s just say that neither Gallup nor Rasmussen are near the top, but seem to typically lean Democrat.

[Burma Jones]

There are four tracking polls in the RCP average. Two are exactly tied, one is virtually tied (O +1), and then there is Gallup. Has Wall Street given O a bump this week? Most likely. Is it permanent or even a trend that is likely to last? I doubt it. Things will continue to bounce around, likely until Election Day.

Look on the bright side: if O’s position had continued to deteriorate this week, he might have bit the bullet and dumped Biden. Hopefully this little mini-rally will keep Biden on the ticket until it’s too late to get rid of him.

[NYC Republican]

I actually live in CT, but work in the belly of the beast... I'm strongly conservative, and proudly display it, in most cases (at work, it's a little dicey)... I just ordered a PALIN/McCain bumber sticker and will wear it on my car, proudly throughout NYC (I know it won't matter, but it's the principal)...

I can make a strong argument that being a conservative in the midst of disgusting liberalism can make you stronger... It's easier being conservative in rural Mississippi... NYC is a lot tougher

Have a good day

[TonyInOhio]

Does that clarify my view?

Sure does, and I appreciate your opinion.

[NYC Republican]

All- would appreciate comments on post #59... Does anyone comprehend why Bush NEVER calls out the MSM? Why McCain hasn't fully discussed this with the people?

Is this too simplistic? Doesn't anyone else see this as low-hanging fruit? Does anyone besides me see the huge potential to stick it to the media, and try and make them more impartial?

[NYC Republican]

Thanks

[snarkytart]

When you get done, please ping me!

[GOPyouth]

REGISTERED voter poll shows Obama ahead 49-44.

However, look at the breakdown, and you’ll see who they sampled the most.

By age:
18-29yr: Obama 55-40
30-49yr: McCain 49-44
50-64yr: Mccain 48-45
65yr>: McCain 49-40

Gallup placed WAY too much weight on the young crowd. They are consistently the lowest voting block, even with the massive MTV push in 2000 and 2004.

[NYC Republican]

Good catch

[tatown]

Very telling...

[stefan10]

Wow reasonable thoughtful posts about polling and the state of the race.

Congratulations

[CaliforniaCon]

RE: “I told my husband if it wasn’t for SCOTUS justices, and economic repercussions, Obama as President would have some entertainment value.”

Agree — I almost wish Obama would inherit the crises so we could nitpick and scoff at him for a few years, put “Not my President” stickers on our cars, etc., but what we face is too grave and important to trust to such a bumbling empty suited puppet of the Daley machine of Chicago.