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Posted on 09/14/2008 11:57:44 AM PDT by Anti-Hillary
Obama Maintains 7 Point Advantage Over McCain Following Conventions On Monday Sept 8th and Tuesday Sept 9th, the Hoffman Research Group surveyed a crosssection of Oregon voters to ascertain voter preferences in the Presidential election following the two major party conventions. The resulting data found Barack Obama currently leading John McCain by a 46% to 39% margin. Ralph Nadar and Bob Barr who will both appear on Oregon ballots drew 1% and 1% respectively. When pushed, undecided voters split almost evenly between the two major candidates. Not unlike most of the nation, McCain fared best in the more rural areas, while Obama enjoyed his strongest support in the more populous cities of Portland and Eugene. The random sample of 600 Oregon voters took into account increased registrations among Democrats, particularly in the Tri-County area. Statewide, the poll surveyed 46% democrats, 35% republicans and 20% unaffiliated voters. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural or urban divide and maintained appropriate balances with regard to party, gender and age within seven geographic regions. The Hoffman Research Group, a division of Gateway Communications Inc. has been measuring the views and opinions of Oregonians since 1984.
Yeah, lots of hippies and hipsters, but it is the most beautiful major city in the whole country, don’t you think?
I was impressed with the beauty of Oregon. Too much rain for me to live there, but beautiful summers.
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** If Washington goes for McCain, Oregon certainly will. **
I agree. Oregon is getting more and more Republican. When I work the phone banks, it’s amazing. And, yes, we did calls in Portland too.
I think the flyer read "Tune in, get wasted, check out, it's like you never existed", brought to you by Afghan Poppies, International.
Or something like that, if I could get away with it.
In Maryland, that sounds about right.
In Maryland, that sounds about right.
In a number of elections, majorities in the three Portland counties (Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas), Marion (Salem) and Lane (Eugene) have carried the day against majorities in the other 31 counties, so your analysis, in general, is spot on. At the same time, there is a decent demographic of the state (or at least was when I was growing up in the ‘80’s), particularly in the southwest, that is democratic in the West Virginia/Arkansas tradition. People who voted for Carter in ‘80 because Lincoln was on the wrong side of the civil war//no one in their family had ever voted democrat. These folks will think twice before voting for a black man from Chicago—and in thinking twice may discover some reason beside race to stray from the D column. This might push the R majority up even larger in the SW, and cause Lane County to be a draw. If that happens, Portalnd and Marion may not be sufficient to carry the day for the Democrats.
anyway...we need all the regulars but boy would it be nice to have a Pennsylvannia
yeah but not every city has a designated “historically gay community”...
“Oregon I’d write off because of Portland and Eugene. The rural hinterland doesn’t have enough votes to overcome the edge in the coastal Democratic cities!”
Ptld and Eugene are not coastal. They are nearly 100 miles inland.
I have yet to hear a single Democrat here in California that is voting for Obama. No bumper stickers, no yard signs, zip, nada. His voters must be totally concentrated on the coast.
My mother and all the in-laws are Democrats, not one of them is voting for Obama.
Never heard of these guys. I’d wait for Mason Dixon, Ras, SV, or the other reputable one who’s name escapes me right now lol.
I think Pennsylvania is definitely in reach. McCain should carry it.
However, my optimistic analysis has been darken greatly by McCain’s statement on September 11 that “It’s easy for me to go to Washington and, frankly, be somewhat divorced from the day-to-day challenges people have.”
This is the stupidest political revelation from a candidate since Mondale promised to raise taxes. I can’t see how it’s not going to be used repeatedly by the 0bama campaign all through October to hammer in the new message Bill Clinton told 0bama to push, that McCain is “out of touch”. It’s the same message Clinton used against GHW Bush. McCain handed 0bama a gift that will keep on giving, and it is now going to be an uphill climb for him.
Oversampling is this (all numbers are hypothetical):
Based on party registration, they “know” that Democrats outnumber Republicans, 36-33. 51 percent of the people polled said they supported Obama, but 47 percent said they were registered Democrats. Since 47 percent SAID they were Democrats, but only 36 percent are, the poll apparently failed mirror the general voting population; it “oversampled” Democrats.
Did it? Things to watch for:
1. People only re-register when they have to (such as when they move). Many people may switch their party allegiance, without actually switching parties. For instance, twenty years after the South went “Republican,” Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but such people often will say they are Democrats.
2. Many people decline to register with either party( some states don’t even have partisan registration), but strongly associate with one party. Conversely, many people register with one party, but consider themselves “independent.”
Yes indeed!!
Yes, I believe so...down in the shadow of Mt. Hood. I am sure there is info online..sorry I don’t have details.
Come out to the eastern 60% of the state and you'll wonder what happened to that giant evergreen forest. Trees=liberal, outback = good Americans
Most of the state is arid, but beautiful just the same
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