Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Obama Up By 7 in "Leaning" Oregon? Look at sampling though.
Hoffman Research Group ^ | 9-9-08 | Hoffman

Posted on 09/14/2008 11:57:44 AM PDT by Anti-Hillary

Obama Maintains 7 Point Advantage Over McCain Following Conventions On Monday Sept 8th and Tuesday Sept 9th, the Hoffman Research Group surveyed a crosssection of Oregon voters to ascertain voter preferences in the Presidential election following the two major party conventions. The resulting data found Barack Obama currently leading John McCain by a 46% to 39% margin. Ralph Nadar and Bob Barr who will both appear on Oregon ballots drew 1% and 1% respectively. When pushed, undecided voters split almost evenly between the two major candidates. Not unlike most of the nation, McCain fared best in the more rural areas, while Obama enjoyed his strongest support in the more populous cities of Portland and Eugene. The random sample of 600 Oregon voters took into account increased registrations among Democrats, particularly in the Tri-County area. Statewide, the poll surveyed 46% democrats, 35% republicans and 20% unaffiliated voters. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural or urban divide and maintained appropriate balances with regard to party, gender and age within seven geographic regions. The Hoffman Research Group, a division of Gateway Communications Inc. has been measuring the views and opinions of Oregonians since 1984.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bluestates; electionpresident; mccainpalin; obamabiden; or2008
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-60 next last
To: perfect_rovian_storm

I think the main factor is Sarah Palin. She has a special appeal here in the Pacific Northwest.


21 posted on 09/14/2008 12:25:39 PM PDT by B Knotts (Calvin Coolidge Republican)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: CapnJack
If Oregon went GOP, then Obambi would be looking at a McGovern/Mondale kind of shellacking.

For the time being, I'm not seeing that happening.

22 posted on 09/14/2008 12:26:09 PM PDT by KayEyeDoubleDee (const Tag &referenceToConstTag)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

The sample represents the percentages of the Oregon electorate and it would not be reflective of the real outcome any other way. They must do that in every poll or it is not an accurate poll. I’ll bet if you did New York 50% 50% you might get McCain a little ahead in New York.


23 posted on 09/14/2008 12:32:15 PM PDT by Dagny Taggart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

I just got my McCain Palin bumper stickers yesterday and far as I know I’ll be the only car in Portland with bumper stickers not supporting Obama.


24 posted on 09/14/2008 12:36:45 PM PDT by Aria ("An America that could elect Sarah Palin might still save itself." Vin Suprynowicz)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: B Knotts

Without question, but I’m just citing possible reasons for a larger disparity than usual between Oregon and Washington.


25 posted on 09/14/2008 12:41:47 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (Palin 2008 (oh yeah, and McCain too))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: perfect_rovian_storm

Well, actually, not a larger disparity, but a reversal. Oregon normally runs several percent more GOP in presidential races than Washington. If we are to believe this poll, it has flipped to the other side of Washington.

I’m not buying it on the basis of one poll, by a pollster no one has heard of. I need more polling data to be convinced.


26 posted on 09/14/2008 12:48:43 PM PDT by B Knotts (Calvin Coolidge Republican)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Alas, we are seeing the result of “Californication” of Oregon and Washington, and to an extent Idaho and Nevada. Once liberal governance made living in California less appealing, (it really got in gear in the ‘80s) they started moving up to Oregon and Washington. Guess what...they brought their liberal politics with them.

This is the result.


27 posted on 09/14/2008 12:56:21 PM PDT by poindexter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

If Obama can’t win Oregon, he is finished. That’s like McCain losing Kansas.


28 posted on 09/14/2008 1:00:29 PM PDT by rbg81 (DRAIN THE SWAMP!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 1035rep

Oregon is a tough nut to crack.
It always seems to dangle in front of the GOP, just out of reach.
I believe Washington state is more likely than Oregon, in fact I do believe McCain will carry Washington. Oregon, I’m still not so sure.

Oregon is generally considered more GOP friendly than Washington, but I think that needs to be reevaluated.
Oregon is basically a a giant evergreen forest with a single metropolitan city in the northwestern corner, on the coast and state border. Portland is a city that is hipper than Seattle and more beautiful than San Francisco, and has the politics to match both. There just isn’t much else in that state. Sure there are small towns sprinkled here and there in the trees, but Portland by far is the dominant political factor in the state. Plus immigration to Oregon tends to be either hipsters looking for the next Seattle, or granola eating hippies wanting to be at one with nature.

Washington, on the other hand is moving towards the GOP. This is in part by a bit of an exodus from Seattle as it fades as a destination for coolness, and to a larger degree from the new development boom in the south-eastern part of the state, near Idaho, complete with Idaho values (Larry Craig not withstanding).


29 posted on 09/14/2008 1:04:17 PM PDT by counterpunch (Country First)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary
"Oversampled Dems by 11 pts. Help me out with what this means."

It means they don't want to tell the truth. They just want to keep scam going.

30 posted on 09/14/2008 1:10:41 PM PDT by StormEye
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: KayEyeDoubleDee

McGovern and Mondale both won only their homestates.
Obama isn’t there yet, but I do see a Dukakis-sized shellacking under development. I see McCain carrying all of the swing states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada) plus Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington state.

Michigan, Iowa, Oregon, and California are going to be close and could flip to McCain, in that order.

California would take a perfect storm, but I see a very realistic scenario for it. If its an early night for McCain on November 4th, as I think it will be, then Democrat turnout will be depressed, particularly since neither senators nor governor is up for election. Then you have the Bradley Effect, which gets its name from California, and is guaranteed to be highly pronounced here. The Bradley Effect is not actually a product of racism, as it is often portrayed, but quite the opposite. It is the product of political correctness. People being afraid to appear racist, or go against the herd, for that matter, is the cause. And nowhere does this apply more than California. And finally, the most important factor to create the perfect GOP storm in CA: Proposition 8. As many of you know, the California Supreme Court ruled the state’s voter approved ban on same-sex marriage was unconstitutional, and so now we have a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot to define marriage as between one man and one woman. Conservatives will be out in force in California, for a change, this November. See, the liberal counties like San Francisco and Marin already have maximised turnout in the 80 percentile range. And these counties already lean as heavily Democrat as statistically possible. Republican leaning counties, such as Orange County, San Diego, and the interior of the state always have dismal turnout, which is why California is considered such a reliably liberal state. It really isn’t. It is still the home of Ronald Reagan. But the silent majority rarely speaks up. But I think Proposition 8 may awaken the giant here this election.


31 posted on 09/14/2008 1:25:02 PM PDT by counterpunch (Country First)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: counterpunch

“There are small towns sprinkled here and there.”

Uh, have you ever BEEN to Oregon?

Go to Eugene, Springfield or Medford and you’ll see there’s no way those are small towns!

Shoot, even my own town of Grants Pass isn’t really small, having over 30,000 people in the city and far more than that in the county.

Ed


32 posted on 09/14/2008 1:28:20 PM PDT by Sir_Ed
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: All
As an Oregonian, I can tell you there is Palin love in the air! Where I work, people who have only voted Democratic before are switching to McCain/Palin. We have a large lunch area with tvs on CNN full time, so it gets our opinions out in the open.

What the nation forgets is, that the type of person Sarah Palin is, also grows strong in Washington and Oregon. We love our freedom, the outdoors, government out of our business. When you make fun of Sarah and her frontier ways, it insults us... I am excited about this election.

Our family lived in Juneau for several years, and I can tell you Seattle is considered the ‘big sister’ to Alaska, almost the first footing into Alaska. Much of the business, major health care, etc is done in Seattle, and Seattle loves Alaska and the money Alaska brings to Seattle and Washington... I only hope that it will be reflected on election day.

33 posted on 09/14/2008 1:28:35 PM PDT by glory2him
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Some pollsters go by party registration to get the mix of voters they want. Others use historical numbers. It really is to try to be more accurate not to fudge the results.


34 posted on 09/14/2008 1:36:30 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: glory2him

I think what you’ve stated about WA is primarily true - and, as others have stated, many are just FURIOUS about the last election and the selection of Gov Fraudoire. The last poll for WA State looks pretty good (Rossi up by 6 and 0 and McCain in a virtual tie considering the +/-); however, there is still a long time until election day. I am a little worried about Reichert (my Rep in Congress) - I don’t agree w him on all points, but he’s certainly much better than Darcy Burner, who he ran against last time and didn’t win by all that much. Hopefully Rossi has some coat tails (and Sarah has some skirt tails here :-)

One thing in this article bothers me a little:
“The random sample of 600 Oregon voters took into account increased registrations among Democrats, particularly in the Tri-County area.”

As I understand it, OR is all absentee voting (WA has moved much of the state to that - which I’m not happy about 1) I think that opens it up to a greater chance for more fraud, 2) from just a personal perspective, I like going to the election place and casting my ballot there.

I’d appreciate your take on the ‘increased Dem registration’ mentioned in the article. Do you think these are all Dim, and, how closely do you think they are being scrutinized (e.g., do you think ACORN is playing a big part in these registrations, and,can get away w voter fraud like they have in other areas of the country?).


35 posted on 09/14/2008 1:46:50 PM PDT by Seattle Conservative (God Bless and protect our troops and their CIC)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Anti-Hillary

Lots of indies and even GOP switched to Dem just to vote in the primary. I almost did the same thing but I decided I didn’t want to be bugged by whoever won the primary for campaign money to the end of time.


36 posted on 09/14/2008 1:49:11 PM PDT by GoSarah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GoSarah

As an addendum to #36 above, I think any pollster that uses raw voter registration percentages and equates them to self-declared party affiliation is going to be in for a nasty surprise come November.


37 posted on 09/14/2008 1:51:34 PM PDT by GoSarah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: Sir_Ed

I’ve been to Oregon 5 times.
I’ve been to Eugene, Salem, and Bend. And sure, they’re not nonexistent, but they’re nothing in comparison to Portland. But Eugene and Salem lean Democrat anyways.


38 posted on 09/14/2008 1:52:52 PM PDT by counterpunch (Country First)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: GoSarah

Operation Chaos!

You could have switched for the primary and whoever won that primary would not have known unless you sent them money.


39 posted on 09/14/2008 1:55:19 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55 (Obama is the Democrats guy. They bought the ticket, now they must take the ride.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: counterpunch

My daughter lives in Coos Bay, Oregon. We took a trip to Portland and I couldn’t believe all the hippies there.


40 posted on 09/14/2008 1:55:42 PM PDT by 1035rep (McCain/Palin 08)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-60 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson