Posted on 09/14/2008 11:57:44 AM PDT by Anti-Hillary
Obama Maintains 7 Point Advantage Over McCain Following Conventions On Monday Sept 8th and Tuesday Sept 9th, the Hoffman Research Group surveyed a crosssection of Oregon voters to ascertain voter preferences in the Presidential election following the two major party conventions. The resulting data found Barack Obama currently leading John McCain by a 46% to 39% margin. Ralph Nadar and Bob Barr who will both appear on Oregon ballots drew 1% and 1% respectively. When pushed, undecided voters split almost evenly between the two major candidates. Not unlike most of the nation, McCain fared best in the more rural areas, while Obama enjoyed his strongest support in the more populous cities of Portland and Eugene. The random sample of 600 Oregon voters took into account increased registrations among Democrats, particularly in the Tri-County area. Statewide, the poll surveyed 46% democrats, 35% republicans and 20% unaffiliated voters. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural or urban divide and maintained appropriate balances with regard to party, gender and age within seven geographic regions. The Hoffman Research Group, a division of Gateway Communications Inc. has been measuring the views and opinions of Oregonians since 1984.
If they need to oversample to get their desired result...I’d say we are probably ahead. The gap is closing in Washington so Oregon’s should be also.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Agreed....not called the left coast without reason.....
This poll does not seem to be accounting for the recent GOP surge, either unintentionally or intentionally.
I tell people that Portland is filled with people who thought Berkley was too conservative.
http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf
Kind of an old poll.....through 9/9 only?
I live on the Columbia River about 30 minutes from downtown Portland, Or. and you are exactly right...the hinterlands have trouble with the muster of enough GOP votes. It may happen in Washington state considering that DNC Gov. Gregoire stole the election with Acorn three counting the last time around AND THE FOLKS WERE FURIOUS!! Everyone knew what happened, despite what the MSM was handing out. With luck Washington State may remember and get it right next time.
It's Independents who are way under-sampled. I recall reading (and I may be mistaken) that something like 40% of Oregon voters are independent.
McCain/Palin might do better than expected in the Portland suburbs. If they do, it might be very close.
Still a hard road. Even in a McCain landslide, I would expect Oregon to go Obama.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Nonsense. If Washington goes for McCain, Oregon certainly will. Washington is more Democrat than Oregon.
Why does this keep coming up?
There is NO oversampling. There is no undersampling. There is only random sampling. The people self identify as whatever party affiliation they choose when they are RANDOMLY sampled. That many Democrats were in the RANDOM sample. That many GOP and that many Independents.
Oregon’s Dem/GOP/Ind mixture may be exactly what these samples said. Kerry won it by 4% in 2004. Party affiliation moved away from the GOP since then, despite recent gains.
Forget Oregon.
“Not unlike most of the nation, McCain fared best in the more rural areas, while Obama enjoyed his strongest support in the more populous cities of Portland and Eugene. The random sample of 600 Oregon voters took into account increased registrations among Democrats, particularly in the Tri-County area. Statewide, the poll surveyed 46% democrats, 35% republicans and 20% unaffiliated voters.”
Conservatives need a ‘get out the vote’ registration effort in Oregon.
Well, there are extenuating circumstances. The Gov’s election was clearly stolen in 2004 and there are people angry about that. There was some other thing that went down in WA...I think it was a huge tax raise or something along those lines that people were REALLY pissed about.
Oregon is NOT going to vote for McCain, so I don't think we need to get excited about McCain's chances there.
Reps need to guard against overconfidence in this race. The Palin phenomenon will fade when the the end of month is here and the “debates” start. Then it will be issues that will matter to people.
Oversampled in national terms, maybe, but did they oversample in Oregonian terms?
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