For the time being, I'm not seeing that happening.
McGovern and Mondale both won only their homestates.
Obama isn’t there yet, but I do see a Dukakis-sized shellacking under development. I see McCain carrying all of the swing states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada) plus Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington state.
Michigan, Iowa, Oregon, and California are going to be close and could flip to McCain, in that order.
California would take a perfect storm, but I see a very realistic scenario for it. If its an early night for McCain on November 4th, as I think it will be, then Democrat turnout will be depressed, particularly since neither senators nor governor is up for election. Then you have the Bradley Effect, which gets its name from California, and is guaranteed to be highly pronounced here. The Bradley Effect is not actually a product of racism, as it is often portrayed, but quite the opposite. It is the product of political correctness. People being afraid to appear racist, or go against the herd, for that matter, is the cause. And nowhere does this apply more than California. And finally, the most important factor to create the perfect GOP storm in CA: Proposition 8. As many of you know, the California Supreme Court ruled the state’s voter approved ban on same-sex marriage was unconstitutional, and so now we have a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot to define marriage as between one man and one woman. Conservatives will be out in force in California, for a change, this November. See, the liberal counties like San Francisco and Marin already have maximised turnout in the 80 percentile range. And these counties already lean as heavily Democrat as statistically possible. Republican leaning counties, such as Orange County, San Diego, and the interior of the state always have dismal turnout, which is why California is considered such a reliably liberal state. It really isn’t. It is still the home of Ronald Reagan. But the silent majority rarely speaks up. But I think Proposition 8 may awaken the giant here this election.