Posted on 09/13/2008 10:21:03 PM PDT by TomEwall
I considered the states that Rasmussen has listed as leaning or toss-ups and used the "Last" values for Intrade to determine the probability of a given state being won. Doing a weighted average, I came with McCain's expected value to be 268.74, which is just under 269, a tie.
Doing a Monte Carlo simulation I came up with the probability of a McCain win being 49.4%, a similar result to the weighted average.
I like your thinking, history will be kind to ole’ GWB...It will stay BUSH REVOLUTION
I did it for 38 years. I paid my union dues but never went to union meetings because I would have had to listen to a bunch of Democrat hogwash.
I think the swing voters who normally wait until late in the season have swung towards McCain in the last month. This may be a product of the long election season.
McCain has the momentum, and at the right time. His lead will snowball due to the bandwagon effect.
Can 0bama turn the tide? I doubt it. He is out of gas. Hope and Change are as passe as “Where’s the beef?”
McCain by a healthy margin, if not a landslide.
*bows*
I’m not worthy...
It’s surely hyperbole...but I like to picture myself behind enemy lines working a resistence to undermine the communist influence of my fellow citizens...
But I’m really in it for the money...
LMAO...
“He strikes me as a big tent GOP party hack. Not a conservative.”
Gee, Eric - I think he IS a conservative, have heard him speak many, many times. With all due respect :-)
I think there might be riots if McCain wins no matter how big the margin is.
In a heartbeat!
I still wish he had won the Senate Primary but now I get to listen to him on the radio!.
“The Bush name will hold up over the years and age like a fine wine, although it sucks a little right now.”
Well, I meant to add that before - history will judge W FAR better than public opinion (or is it really mostly MSM???) right now. I’m proud of him for keeping our country safe from another attack over the last 7 years. YES, he has his faults and I’ve disagreed with him greatly on some key issues, but he is a good man. And that counts for a LOT.
Well said...the man has suffered many slings and arrows to keep us safe...
Interesting post, but how do you deal with the feedback problem?
Most Intrade traders place their bets based on their assessment of polls, projections, etc. State polls (those used to do Electoral College calculations) tend to lag by a week or two the national plebiscite polls. Those polls themselves are variously adult, registered voter, or the much more accurate but expensive “likely voter” polls.
So Intrade traders would not be my starting point as they reflect (excluding campaign staff with inside information from more accurate, private, expensive candidate sponsored polls) old information.
Remember, there was an Intrade market for how soon Sarah Palin would go the way of Harriet Myers. That the market even existed is telling of Intrade’s (based in Ireland, I believe) information sources and blind spots.
would you care to guess which 10 states that would be ?
Yes, I retired in 1999.
Your projection (probability) is based on a snapshot, the polls, and may (or may not) be accurate but if so only for today as the polls are in flux.
Really, it’s just another poll.
I did it years and years ago. Just write the administrator and explain why. I think you've got a valid reason.
Two choices:
1.) Re-register and set up a new screen name account.
Either don't login under your old screen name account, or
E-mail JR asking to purge your old screen name account.
2.) E-mail JR and ask if your screen name can be changed to your newly chosen one.
This should preserve your account history, if that's important to you.
I put it at 4% max. He says it’s higher, closer to 20%.
I admire your forward thought process about the "yahoo" percentage, but I tend to agree with the other party. I have opined that the racist vote will be in the 10-20% range (I fix the spread so wide because, who's gonna admit they're racist?).
Personally, I expect the so-called Bradley effect to equal the Black vote percentage of the aggregate tally, in effect, a wash.
The media going lower than I ever thought they would, kook libs, madder and kookier than I thought they could be(and Dems being so dumb as to attack Palin as they have)....McCain, who I never gave a thought to before the primaries of having any chance, Hillary being taken out by Obama and now Palin.
What a roller-coaster ride this is, and I am maybe overconfident McCain will win big, but I believe he will and I am enjoying every minute of this election season.
I re-did the calculations using current data, and now it shows McCain’s expected electoral count at 270, and having a 51.4% chance of winning.
Hey Crim I got u beat..... try being a “straight conservative” in WEST HOLLYWOOD!
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