This is pretty unsettling. We have lost faith in the press to distinguish drama from facts.
There’s Janice Dean- saying this could be worse than Katrina...but she was pretty hyped about Gustav for awhile too.
Reading the thread I see everything from- don’t be silly- a little wind and some local flooding to- run for your lives we’re all gonna die.
Hard to get an accurate reading, though I don’t think the NHC issues warnings of potential death too often.
The problem is, this storm’s been breaking a lot of the “rules” about tropical systems since it hit Cuba. It’s much bigger than normal, and has a low central pressure when compared to its windspeed. It’s had much higher winds at altitude than it has at the surface, which has complicated estimating and forecasting. Every time it looks like it’s going to “bomb out” and strengthen, it doesn’t; every time it looks like it’s going to weaken, it doesn’t. Because of its sheer size, it’s got a storm surge that’s totally out of proportion to its sustained winds. Category 2 storms with 100-105 mph winds are just not supposed to be pushing 25 feet of water in front of them, and causing flooding along five hundred miles of coast, but Ike is. Put all of that together and you have a storm that’s extremely hard to figure out.
The key thing to remember, though, is this—that storm surge. The winds are probably not unmanageable for a well-built modern building. But virtually NOTHING is going to stand up to 16-20 feet of water with hurricane-force-wind-driven waves on top of that, and debris on top of that. The storm surge is what killed New Orleans by topping and breaching the levees, and the storm surge is what scoured Mississippi clean for a half-mile inland in 2005. And the geography of the Houston/Galveston area means that big storm surge is going to be able to push up Galveston Bay and get a lot further inland than people might think.
}:-)4
I’ve been complaining about the debasement of the language by constant use of hyperbole for decades. People calling spanking “abuse”, getting drunk and having sex “date rape”, etc... it just removes the power that used to be associated with the words abuse and rape. There are so many other examples I could give.
I pointed out on threads earlier this week that when the NOLA mayor called Gustav the “mother of all storms” that was in the same pattern. Now, no one has any idea when things are being properly described.
Is it really the wolf out there, or is it just “calling wolf”.
It is a horribly bad situation. I suspect this is going to contribute to - no_will be the determining factor - in many people’s death tomorrow. They just don’t trust that the words mean what they say any more - and who can blame them?
I thought Dean did an awful job with Gustav. She keep predicting much worse than her graphics showed. A spiritual brother at our church just asked for prayers for his biological brother who is staying in Houston with critical patients. They don’t expect their house to survive. I worry about the people in Houston. I was living there once when a hurricane was predicted. I was told they never come there and that the people there ignore the hype. Hmm.