Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[lainie]

The meterologist at KHOU just said this is a cat 2 storm in terms of wind, but a cat 4 or 5 in terms of surge. It can’t be overemphasized.

[TornadoAlley3]

whoealdo just busted his ass in the surf.

[SE Mom]

OMG

I’m just catching up on the thread running through graphics.

So- with this storm somewhere between 15- 20 surge Galveston is underwater and a huge surge comes further inland?

[Unlikely Hero]

Fox news is getting word that people are not evacuating for this storm like they did Gustav! They are having trouble evacuating people. Federal officials are concerned.

Too many cries of "wolf." It's a hassle to evacuate, and while it is best when the danger is real, most people have experiences of only the hassle for no good reason. And so they won't leave, to their peril.

For the record, I'm near downtown Houston, and I'm still trying to figure out if this is all as dangerous as it sounds, or if it's the media blowing things out of proportion, or if it's the government trying to avoid another Katrina by scaring everyone out of their minds.

[CindyDawg]

Packing up and leaving is hard but I think it goes beyond that. Many may not admit it but IMO we have a fascination with storms. The time to decide when to go is before hurricane season. What can your home safely handle. Once it's coming we get these “fight over flee” urges. Do yall understand? It's kind of hard to explain.

It reminds me of a time in Galveston. My husband and I were going in to look at an apartment. A huge water spout came over the bay, right toward us. We both just stood there watching it, kind of in a daze until the manager grabbed our arms and yelled “get in here” Then it was like ...that wasn't very smart. There used to be an older person in the family that had gone thru bad storms to guide the younger. Now with families all over the country some don't have anyone to yell "get out of there" Add that to not trusting the media and you have a big problem.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Ok, I looked up the numbers for the 1900 hurricane.

You left out one important statistic: 6,000 - 10,000 Souls perished.

[patton]

Whorealdo just got knocked tits-over-teakettle by a wave.

Best laugh I have had in days.

[dfwgator]

The surge is ahead of the storm, so it doesn’t matter how intense the storm is when it hits land. What matters is how strong the storm is hours before it hits land.

[Justa]

"but even poured concrete & reinforced concrete structures still can have problems.]"

Saturated foundations, built into sand with significant height and weight are good candidates for toppling from wind and wave forcing. The best shelter on Galveston may be the buildings that are one story above the expected wave height, say the top floor of a seven story building.

[Romulus]

Shh! You’re not allowed to ask that question. Remember, everyone’s going to die unless they follow orders!

[Moose4]

Basically, yes. 15-20 feet pushes water far up Galveston Bay into the bayous and creeks and shorelines in the towns around Houston proper, and puts almost all of Galveston Island underwater.

}:-)4

[dfwgator]

Reading the account of what happened to those poor children at the St Mary’s Orphanage in the book “Isaac’s Storm” brought tears to my eyes when I read about it.

[SE Mom]

I guess if I were you I’d take a look at the surge maps..

[TornadoAlley3]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIUPCfIihQ4&feature=related

old Glen Campbell song keeps playing in my head

[NautiNurse]

Emergency rescue already underway on Bolivar Peninsula. These are folks who thought they could ride out the storm, and now can't evacuate due to road flooding. More than 150 calls to the Coast Guard already requesting emergency evacuation.

Surfside Hwy 332 now flooding. Scheduled to close shortly.

[pax_et_bonum]

I'm with you. We need a 'wind-chill' type of scale that takes into size of system, speed, wind speed, pressure, surge...

Add to that an ESP scale which can predict which trees will fall and where they will land or the heavy items which will be blown into buildings, allowing the hurricane force winds to come into those buildings during a time when evacuation is impossible.

A friend of mine died during Alicia when a tree fell.

[metmom]

why do people think that staying in a public building or high rise will keep them safer?

I guess IF I KNEW FOR SURE I could watch all safely from above it would be tempting.. but even poured concrete & reinforced concrete structures still can have problems.]

Because they really don't understand what waves can do. If it were merely flooding or just wind, they'd have a point. What we're looking at is huge waves pounding on stuff for HOURS. I think what will be left will look like the remains of the tsunami. And I think that most of those people who are on Galveston trying to ride it out will die.

If the storm surge covers everything, where will they go? If the waves batter it as the storm surge rises, nothing stands a chance. How good of a swimmer to they think they are? The rip tides alone have to be incredible.

[Ingtar]

For the record, I'm near downtown Houston, and I'm still trying to figure out if this is all as dangerous as it sounds, or if it's the media blowing things out of proportion, or if it's the government trying to avoid another Katrina by scaring everyone out of their minds.

Take a look at the storm surge hours in front of the storm and evaluate from that. Some of these places are experiencing more surge this early than they saw all through other storms. They are beginning to worry that they underestimated some of the surge.

[dirtboy]

For the record, I'm near downtown Houston, and I'm still trying to figure out if this is all as dangerous as it sounds,

East or South of downtown, or North/West? Also, how close to a bayou are you, and how far above it? You really need to be at least 30 feet above sea level, and even that is borderline.

[AFPhys]

I talked with her pretty detailed a couple hours ago