Posted on 09/12/2008 4:57:16 AM PDT by 11th_VA
PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
(snip)
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
My concern for LA-6 is that #1, they don’t frequently toss out their incumbents in that state. They may give Cazayoux the benefit of the doubt despite hailing from the Dems, as they have for Melancon (whom, regretably, has NO Republican opponent this year). The other problem (for us) is that the district was becoming a bit marginal. Baker had some trouble here in recent years (but I wish he had had the common courtesy, along with Hastert, to have waited until the general to retire). Cazayoux also has several times more money than his GOP opponent, State Sen. Bill Cassidy, as well at last report. Now, where Cazayoux has a problem is that a Black Dem (named Michael Jackson, no less, and is a sitting State Representative) is running an Independent candidacy in a district that has a fair number of Blacks (key to a Cazayoux win). If Jackson can snatch a large enough number of Black Dems, this imperils Cazayoux, but all things considered, I’d still have to rate him as likely to retain his seat (especially in the face of increased Black turnout for Obama and presumably the sophistication of Black voters that voting on race over party in the House race would give the seat to the GOP).
I asked FR’s own Congressman Billybob if he was prepared to raise over a million dollars for that race for the general if he won the nomination and I never got an answer. Even if he had gotten the nod, if he couldn’t raise it, he wasn’t going to win. I was hoping State Sen. Tom Apodaca, who represented a chunk of the district, and also with added appeal as a Hispanic, would’ve been a better choice to face Shuler, but he dropped out last year. Perhaps we can persuade him to run in 2010.
I badly wanted to put that race as strongly competitive, but Col. West is going to be obscenely outspent. Klein has already raised (at last report) $3.3 million dollars. West has less than $300k (I’m presuming he has more now), but the GOP in keeping with its piss-poor record of funding Black candidates, isn’t likely going to be giving West anything. West will probably get over 40% in this competitive district, but he doesn’t have the resources to match Klein.
Why I put the seat in the competitive category is because Kratovil will likely have over $1 mil to run against Harris (though Harris has twice as much), but where Kratovil scored a big win is getting the endorsement of the outgoing RINO Gilchrest in an ultimate act of sour grapes. I don’t expect Kratovil to win, but it’s not impossible, especially if Gilchrest RINO liberals and Eastern Shore residents vote against Harris.
Molinari has been out of the House for a decade and it’s unlikely her husband, Bill Paxon, will be going back to that grind again. There are other reasons they may not be making active and aggressive public appearances for reasons I cannot discuss here.
Saracuda Rox!
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Naah, I don’t think that will be a real problem. Manzullo has four times the money of his opponent. This seat isn’t really being targeted by the Dems. The big problem is that we’re probably going to lose the 11th (Weller’s seat) and the badly tainted RINO Oberweis’s refusal to step aside will likely see the Dems retain that heavily GOP seat, too. Kirk may also be imperiled in the 10th, too, depending upon what kind of coattails Obama has in IL (assuming he has any at all — but even Dole had them in KS in 1996).
Nope, although many of them were remotely financially competitive (I'd have to do a race-by-race check to confirm that), but we had two things going for us that year we don't have this year: genuine anger at the Democrat party/Clinton and excellent recruitment, not to mention a coherent, firm, and unified legislative agenda. We knew we were going to make substantial gains and you could feel it (at the time, I was personally not expecting a total takeover, but a closely divided body, better numbers in the Senate than the House).
"What all of those districts had in common was that, except for a couple of CDs in Iowa that voted for Dukakis but showed in 1992 that they were by no means Democrat districts, they had voted for President Bush in 1988 (even Rostenkowski’s district, as redrawn in 1992, had voted for Bush in 1988!). If the GOP is doing well in the generic ballot, a lot of those first-term House Democrats in Republican districts may get the heave-ho despite our lackluster recruiting."
I'm sure we'll win back some, but whether we win back enough to break even, I have serious doubts. We've just got far too many subpar candidates with no bucks and no particular unified message (drill now ! is fine, but we're gonna need a bit more than that). We were given an incredible opportunity with the moonbat-led Congress and all of their ethically-challenged members, and we've already blown it. Whether we gain seats or lose them, the whole leadership needs to be cleared out.
I was sorry to see Jenkins get screwed by the RINO establishment in his race. A House seat was the least he was owed after having a Senate seat stolen from him. I don’t have the exact figures, but I believe the 6th is (or was post-Katrina) probably above 40% Black (it was in the 30s following redistricting). It’s just very hard with that high a percentage for the GOP to win a House seat. While Blacks will vote over 90% for a Dem nominee, Whites won’t by a similar margin for a GOP candidate (although they did in Southern districts during a brief period in the late ‘60s until 1972, accounting for why nearly 50% Black districts in central Memphis and Atlanta all sent Republicans during the period, all the seats which now are amongst the most heavily Dem in those states today).
I posted a SurveyUSA last week. He’s trailing the D.
Thanks for the info. Not long after I asked you that I realized that I have seen exactly one Abboud sign in Freeport so far, and I don’t recall seeing any in Rockford on my several recent visits.
Meanwhile, Manzullo, Mulcahey and Bivins signs (those last to are the D and R for state Senate, respectively) are sprouting up all over.
Yeah, the White-Heinrich race. That particular poll took locals by surprise, since that’s not the feeling they have for the race. Heinrich isn’t as well known and is nearly second tier (he was not considered the most ideal candidate for the Dems) and Sheriff White has either tied or outraised him (I don’t have current figures, I think the pre-primary figures are the ones up on Open Secrets) and is a first tier candidate, the best nominee we could field. We could lose it, but I don’t ultimately expect us to unless McCain tanks.
I’m about a week ahead of Gallup on this one.
I’m “overconfident”.
It’s all over except the “healing process”.
After the landslide, the country clubbers need to get out of the way and let us run conservative candidates for congress. We can get the house in 2010. I couldn’t believe we didn’t run an “R” for the senate in ARKANSAS? See if Huckabee can pull a Loutenberg.
I have been continually ANGRY about why the “R” party doesn’t nationalize the house elections. We did it ONCE in 1994, do they remember?????
They were afraid to run against a house with an approval of 9%, I hate the RINO decision makers, so timid. What scares them? Winning?
It's not just the Senate seat. All the other 3 House seats (all of which are winnable for the GOP, all having voted for Dubya) have NO GOP challengers other than for the lone incumbent sitting in the seat we've held 42 years. Huckster is WHY the Republican party is in absolute shambles in Arkansas. I don't want to see that liberal RINO con-artist anywhere near elective office again.
"I have been continually ANGRY about why the “R” party doesn’t nationalize the house elections. We did it ONCE in 1994, do they remember????? They were afraid to run against a house with an approval of 9%, I hate the RINO decision makers, so timid. What scares them? Winning?"
Yeah, I think that's exactly what they're scared of. Offending the media, offending the Democrats. Frankly, the way so many of them behave, I'd think they were on the Democrat payroll. But this party definitely needs an enormous enema.
I’m not a fan of Huckabee either, AT ALL. I just threw his name out there because it’s implausible and I couldn’t think of anyone else in the state. lol
After we win, it’s time to take out the RINO leaders, it will be evident that it was a CONSERVATIVE that brought people out. I know they’re afraid of the media and democrats. I LIVE IN NJ. The Republican “party” campaigned harder against Bret Schundler than his opponent (McGreevey).
The funny part about is was George Will called Schundler the next Reagan and he governed in JERSEY CITY as mayor and got MINORITY votes, they run RINO’s and pander to the minorities and get NOTHING. EXASPERATING!!
Well, thanks to him, he made it so that he WAS the AR Republican party. Up until 2000, we were swiftly en route to heading towards majorities in the legislature and we held half the federal delegation. He crippled the party, we've lost seats as a result, he attacked Conservatives and badmouthed others for wanting to do something about the illegal invasion. He was more interested in keeping the slave labor spigot running full-blast for Tyson. The irony, maybe not so ironic, was that when the new Democrat Governor was asked why he didn't fire Huckster's government appointees when he came in, he said, "Why should I ? They're nearly all (Clinton) Democrats." Yup, that's right. Huckster kept most of the corrupt Dems in place held over from Clinton and convicted felon Jim Guy Tucker. No Southern state regressed back to the Dems like Arkansas did under Huckster. None.
"After we win, it’s time to take out the RINO leaders, it will be evident that it was a CONSERVATIVE that brought people out. I know they’re afraid of the media and democrats. I LIVE IN NJ. The Republican “party” campaigned harder against Bret Schundler than his opponent (McGreevey)."
Yup, I'm well aware of how bad things are there. I've watched that sideshow for quite some time now. The "bidness-as-usual" RINO establishment in NJ is essentially in full collusion with the rodents (they're all liberals, anyway). Not too far afield from NY and IL. Outsiders and Conservatives/reformers aren't welcome. It's no surprise the scummy toady DiFrancesco was a lot happier to hand over the keys of Drumthwacket to creepy McGreevey than to Bret Schundler. The problem is that those liberals are so damn rich, it's hard to pry them or blast them out of their little bailiwicks they hold power over. Same situation in Massachusetts, which once used to be one of the most Republican states in the country and the party is so dead there, they can't win any federal or statewide office anymore. NJ could resemble that scene in 20 years.
"The funny part about is was George Will called Schundler the next Reagan and he governed in JERSEY CITY as mayor and got MINORITY votes, they run RINO’s and pander to the minorities and get NOTHING. EXASPERATING!!"
In other states, Schundler would've been a superstar, destined for great things. He should've been Governor for two terms, and then Senator (or even running for President). In NJ, to the rich liberal RINO establishment, he's a threat to their patronage and power and he has to be destroyed at all costs. No doubt they will also make sure he cannot win his old job back as JC Mayor next year. Schundler made one blunder, however, when he sincerely believed he could work with the RINOs for an entree into the establishment's good graces. That's about as likely as a Black man getting elected head of the klan. The only way to deal with these establishment types is to take them out, entirely and completely, leave nothing of them left. They are the enemy, and a lot more dangerous than self-declared Democrats, since they are trojan horses for the opposition, preventing us from even being ABLE to face regular Democrats. Those types kill this party like a rapidly-spreading cancer. You don't beat cancer by holding hands with it and stroking its hair.
You’ve got it figured out. We’re dealing with the nitty-gritty part of politics. What will it take to destroy the RINO inner-culture of the party that likes to see democrats elected?
Likely having to fight for control of the party apparatus, whatever there is of it, all the way down to the township level. Aggressive people willing to take charge and you likely need $$, too. Often times, too, there are a lot of people out there not even involved in politics because they feel like they’re not welcome by exclusionary local politicos. Bringing those types of people in, college or even high school kids willing to work the precincts, even older people. It’s basically about mobilizing the right people.
Of course, that’s sort of a generic and sunny/optimitic answer. In practice, it’s much harder, bare-knuckle and vicious. Although not a battle for local party control, I remember a decade ago a battle against a corrupt local councilwoman. The issue had to do with rezoning, and often that’s where private bribery and coercion goes on. The residents of this area didn’t want a business to go up because it meant the loss of a historic property and a park, nevermind increased traffic (and the fact that with this business meant another store of that chain would vacate a shopping plaza a mile or so away, which could increase crime there). The councilwoman could care less, she lived way on the other side of the districts, miles away. It wasn’t something she’d have to deal with.
Needless to say over several months, it go very ugly. I had talked to the councilwoman privately about this, and firmly reiterated that I and the residents of the neighborhood association (of which I was not a member, since I lived in an adjacent area) were opposed to the rezoning and the project. The councilwoman said if the business rezoning wasn’t allowed, they were going to put in housing for shall we say “undesirables.” Interesting she had no hesistation in threatening her constituents with that, yet when I asked her what she was doing to stand up to the bullying tactics and collusion of big labor and big business, she whined like a child she “couldn’t do anything.” Yeah.
Anyway, a lady whom had moved down from the NYC suburbs had decided she was going to take on all these groups and the family that stood to make millions on the rezoning. I told her I was going to move on recalling the councilwoman. That’s when the fun started. One night when I was on the phone with the woman, she dropped it and went running outside. Apparently some local thugs (at least people either close to the family, or maybe even union employees) did a drive-by of sorts past her house (not shooting, but menacing enough) while her children were playing in the front yard. She had put up with this crap for months, but when they took it to her kids, she figured a damn mega-market wasn’t worth their lives. She packed up and left the state.
I was still intending to procede with the recall when another member (whom my family had known since the ‘70s after we came down from NYC) and was also the father of the Sheriff of this county, he told me that they weren’t going to stand for this recall business and essentially told me, “Son, you better just drop this.” They were going to circle the wagons around her. I figured also they knew about this business and these tactics all the way to the Mayor’s office (that individual now, btw, is the Governor). I discovered the recall provision in this county was a joke. You needed to have a certain percentage of voters COUNTYWIDE sign said petition, way beyond the number that voted in said Councilmember in this district, indeed, I would’ve had to have gotten signatures from people that DON’T LIVE IN THIS DISTRICT. There was no way I was going to collect an estimated 10,000 or so signatures of registered voters to recall a member who had only won by a few thousand votes. The fix was in.
Be warned that it is extremely difficult to depose the local people, as you can see. Once they’re entrenched, it’s almost impossible to get them out. As for that corrupt councilwoman ? She’s now a State Representative in a cozy gerrymandered rodent district. My representative. Corruption pays, don’t it ? Especially when you’re a crooked liberal.
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