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Hurricane Ike Live Thread Part II
NOAA/NHC ^ | 10 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 09/10/2008 2:18:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Texas began issuing mandatory and voluntary evacuations as Hurricane Ike continued to strengthen and slowly moved toward an uncertain landfall destination in the western Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Rick Perry issued a disaster declaration in advance of the storm. Louisiana Governor Jindal released several hundred buses to Texas for evacuation assistance.

Reports from Cuba indicate widespread damage from Hurricane Ike, which raked the length of the island nation. The U.S. State Department again offered Cuba humanitarian assistance after a previous offer was declined by the Cuban government.

The stock market Wednesday rose as investors bought oil stocks and and oill futures fell.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image Image Loop
Lat/Lon No Lat/Lon Short Long
Visible Visible Visible Visible
Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave
Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None None None None
AVN AVN AVN AVN
Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak
JSL JSL JSL JSL
RGB RGB RGB RGB
Funktop Funktop Funktop Funktop
Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Louisiana; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; ike; louisiana; texas; topical; tropical; weather
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I’ve got family that left Corpus last night for Houston. So, now they are headed to Louisiana and relatives in Kinder. My sister in law and nieces in Houston are headed towards Louisiana as well. I was really hoping this thing would go a lot further south and hit in cow country. :(


501 posted on 09/11/2008 8:33:50 AM PDT by dougherty (I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free. - Michelangelo)
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To: MeekOneGOP

SH Rider High School( Wichita Falls) and Sulfer Springs are on national tv @ espn tonight playin football


502 posted on 09/11/2008 8:35:08 AM PDT by advertising guy ( CHARITY BEGINS AT HUT !)
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To: BradyBug
What should we expect as far as wind speed assuming a cat 3 at landfall?

If the storm comes ashore, as predicted, with ~ 120-130 mph winds... where you are, you can expect Tropical Storm force winds...(>35 mph) continuously for more than 24 hours straight.

You will have hurricane force wind (>74 Mph) continuously for ~8 hours straight.

And, your maximum sustained winds will probably top out at ~ 100-110 MPH.

Most well constructed brick homes can withstand that... Although, you could have a little roof, fence, or other type damage. You WILL lose power... probably, for a LONG time... (at least 1 week...perhaps 1-2 weeks)

Unless you live in a mobile home, an apartment, or are surrounded by HUGE trees, or have a medical condition that leaves you unable to do without power... you're probably better off staying where you are than trying to go anywhere now.

But... you NEED to be prepared.. for NO stores... NO gas stations.. NO power...for several days.. up to a week.

I can promise you... it will be scary as hell ALL NIGHT.... the sound that wind makes is unbelievable.. and, the "not knowing" how bad it will get makes it quite a mental strain. But...you'll probably live. :-)

503 posted on 09/11/2008 8:37:15 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( When you find yourself going through Hell, keep going!)
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To: Xenalyte

changing my tagline as well.

The grocery stores are crazy here. Bought the normal groceries plus some extra beer and snacks for the kiddos.

I suppose I am as ready as I can be - need to clean up the backyard and what not.

I am kinda hoping my fence blows down - it needs replacing and an insurance deductible is cheaper than a new fence :)

on a side note - Why do people buy cases and cases of bottled water, I have six 6 gallon water jugs that I fill up for plenty of drinking water.


504 posted on 09/11/2008 8:37:25 AM PDT by BradyBug (Holy Rolling Redneck in West Houston (Westheimer and Gessner area))
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To: Xenalyte; y'all
90 @ 6 here, the Sugar Factory and I'm already evacuated. Hehee...
505 posted on 09/11/2008 8:38:43 AM PDT by Enosh (†)
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To: SomeCallMeTim

I have to begin storing the stuff in my backyard in the garage.

Do you think my concrete figures (about 2 to 3 ft) will be okay if I just lay them down. How about very heavy large pots with dirt and plants? I have alot of garden yard art and I sure don’t feel like lugging everything into the garage that I don’t have to. The lighter items of course, baskets, etc., I will store.


506 posted on 09/11/2008 8:48:22 AM PDT by BlueAngel (Katy, Tx (west of Houston))
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To: BradyBug

It is hard to predict for sure though...

The storm seems to be having some trouble getting it’s act together. Time is running out for Ike.. so, maybe he comes on ashore before getting that much stronger...

If so.. you may only lose power for a couple of hours.. or, not at all.

From where you are though... it’ll mostly be like a really bad thunderstorm that just goes on for a really long time.

One thing for sure though, you’ll have a memory and and a story that you’ll NEVER forget! :-)


507 posted on 09/11/2008 8:50:30 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( When you find yourself going through Hell, keep going!)
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To: BlueAngel

yes... 2-3 ft concrete items should be safe...

Gnomes don’t travel far, even in high wind.


508 posted on 09/11/2008 8:53:06 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( When you find yourself going through Hell, keep going!)
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To: NautiNurse; All
Jeff Masters - "Category 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina"

Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so may get overtopped.

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.


Galveston's seawall has never been topped.
509 posted on 09/11/2008 8:53:57 AM PDT by af_vet_rr
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To: SomeCallMeTim

LOL! Thanks, gnomes and angels with wings!


510 posted on 09/11/2008 8:55:10 AM PDT by BlueAngel (Katy, Tx (west of Houston))
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To: BradyBug
Bought the normal groceries plus some extra beer and snacks for the kiddos.

I wish my parents had bought me beer to go with my snacks when i was a kiddo.

511 posted on 09/11/2008 8:56:43 AM PDT by jdub
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To: Dysart
I was in Little Rock when Gustav hit and made its way N into Ar. The state had thousands without power for an extended period because they had sent roughly half their resources S to LA.

And here comes Ike.

512 posted on 09/11/2008 8:58:07 AM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
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To: af_vet_rr

“The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so may get overtopped.”

... Which means the West End is... gone.


513 posted on 09/11/2008 8:59:16 AM PDT by Enosh (†)
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To: BlueAngel

Wrap it up. The liquor store aint staying open all day.

/Clayton Williams has some advice for Houston

:)to keep from :(


514 posted on 09/11/2008 9:01:13 AM PDT by kinghorse (Barack Hussein Obama is a dying star. A white dwarf headed for a black hole.)
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To: Enosh
Which means the West End is... gone.

the question is, how "gone" is "gone"? The erosion could potentially leave those mansions on stilts beyond the new tideline. of course, those houses are built up about 12 feet so a 15 foot surge would mean they would be taking the waves head on. Potentially thousands of beach houses could be reduced to nothing but the pilings.

515 posted on 09/11/2008 9:05:55 AM PDT by jdub
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To: BradyBug; TheMom; humblegunner
some extra beer and snacks for the kiddos.

That should keep the kids quiet!

Sounds like the humblegunner school of parenting.

516 posted on 09/11/2008 9:07:08 AM PDT by Eaker (Dutch expression “You can give a monkey a gold ring, but it stays an ugly thing.” - EscapedDutch)
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To: DeaconBenjamin

Who’da thought we’d have to start making hurricane preparations in Arkansas, but after four days without electricity from Gustav, that’s what I’m doing.


517 posted on 09/11/2008 9:09:28 AM PDT by OB1kNOb (Our patriotic hockey mom can beat up your commie community organizer.)
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To: Eaker; BradyBug; TheMom
Sounds like the humblegunner school of parenting.

Keeps the little buggers quiet and happy.

518 posted on 09/11/2008 9:15:37 AM PDT by humblegunner (I'm voting for McCain because he's white.)
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To: OB1kNOb

I think I’ll fill up a gas can or two tonight (already have 10 gallons in the shed). Chain saw is ready. Looks like gas prices are already rising locally.


519 posted on 09/11/2008 9:24:56 AM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
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To: humblegunner
I think we're going to crack open a bottle of champagne. I've been saving it for a special occasion, and since my nerves are already fried, this is going to be the special occasion. haha

No, we won't get drunk. Four folks and one bottle of champagne? Not likely.

520 posted on 09/11/2008 9:25:33 AM PDT by Texas_shutterbug
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