Posted on 09/10/2008 2:18:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Texas began issuing mandatory and voluntary evacuations as Hurricane Ike continued to strengthen and slowly moved toward an uncertain landfall destination in the western Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Rick Perry issued a disaster declaration in advance of the storm. Louisiana Governor Jindal released several hundred buses to Texas for evacuation assistance.
Reports from Cuba indicate widespread damage from Hurricane Ike, which raked the length of the island nation. The U.S. State Department again offered Cuba humanitarian assistance after a previous offer was declined by the Cuban government.
The stock market Wednesday rose as investors bought oil stocks and and oill futures fell.
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Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)
Thanks for the info.
extrapolated pressure down to 940.5mb now.
“Ike is almost as large as Katrina was, and this large wind field is already beginning to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Tides have risen one foot above normal in Galveston already, too. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA’s experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 10-12 feet at Galveston, and 18-21 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.
Ike is likely to be a extremely dangerous major hurricane at landfall, and will likely do $10-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders. It is possible that Ike will make a direct hit on Galveston as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The potential storm surge from such a hit could be in the 15-25 foot range (Figure 2), which is capable of overwhelming the 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. I put the odds of such an event at about 5%.”
Looks like they are about 60 miles inland. If they are not in a mobile home, they should be OK.
If it’s the real deal the winds will start coming out of the north and the tides will continue to rise. Needless to say, those two occurrences are not supposed to happen in tandem along the Upper Texas Coast unless a big one is coming.
Yikes!
I think Rita was 926 when it peaked.
With regards to possible surge expectations: I live on North Padre Island, just outside of Corpus. Assuming Ike makes landfall in the Matagorda Bay/Palacios area as a Cat 3, what are the likely conditions on the west/south side of the storm where we live? Say 90 to 100 miles away?
Is there any way to get an idea?
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My Baytown, TX, (35 miles east of Houston) girlfriend teacher said the Goose Creek ISD has already announced that schools will be closed on Friday and the Baytown mayor is recommending people evacuate.
Probably a bit of wind and not much rain. If you are 100 miles away to the SW of land fall, you will hardly know anything is going on.
The interview online is pretty good if you tune out the other guy.
Dr. Masters saying 150 mile long swath of power outages on Texas coast.
This pic is a right on the edge in size NN, but everyone seems to be interested in storm surge levels.
I think the hurricane winds extend out 110 miles now, but it will likely be less to the south. You can expect TS force winds, however. If it grows wider (perish the thought,” you might see more. I would think you might get ready to bug out in case it does not turn/does turn, and listen to those “in the know.”
The chances that the storm will make landfall to the NE of you are pretty good. This would put you on the sweet side of the storm, where storm surge is not a big problem. You may expect tropical storm force winds if the storm makes landfall 100 miles away.
Galveston - They called mandatory evac for everything west of the seawall, (me), now I’m in Houston. I saw perhaps 100 charter buses headed toward the island with police escort.
Storm will be so large it will not be affected by external forces trying to degrade it.
End of show.
Wow! You bugged out quickly. Thanks much for checking in. Please keep up updated when you can with local reports.
It's a weather website, not a terrorist group.
“You bugged out quickly.”
I did the Rita nightmare thing. Unnngh! Never again.
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