With regards to possible surge expectations: I live on North Padre Island, just outside of Corpus. Assuming Ike makes landfall in the Matagorda Bay/Palacios area as a Cat 3, what are the likely conditions on the west/south side of the storm where we live? Say 90 to 100 miles away?
Is there any way to get an idea?
Probably a bit of wind and not much rain. If you are 100 miles away to the SW of land fall, you will hardly know anything is going on.
The chances that the storm will make landfall to the NE of you are pretty good. This would put you on the sweet side of the storm, where storm surge is not a big problem. You may expect tropical storm force winds if the storm makes landfall 100 miles away.