Posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus
Obama is up by 6 in today's Rasmussen tracker, by 5 without leaners (48 - 43). It is obviuos that McCain had a very bad polling day yesterday, something like 42-53 daily sample or even worse.
Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, its Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008 (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update. is available.
Despite all the national attention that has been focused on Sarah Palin, public perceptions of the Alaska Governor have changed little in the last few days. She is still viewed favorably by just over half of all voters. A separate survey found that Obama is number one and Palin number two on the list of candidates people would like to meet.
Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support McCain. Full demographic crosstabs featuring tracking poll results by gender, age, race, ideology, party, most important issues, religious beliefs and more are available to Premium Members via the Daily Snapshot.
Polling released earlier today showed that the number of Republicans in the country increased slightly during August, but Democrats still have a nearly six point advantage. Other polling today showed that voters think that Obama and McCain are both better potential Presidents than the nominees from four years ago, John Kerry and George W. Bush.
Today, at noon Eastern, the latest update of President Bushs Job Approval ratings will be released. So will the Rasmussen Employment Index for the month of August.
Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nations voters, McCain by 55%. (see trends).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, its Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).
Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 61.7% chance of winning in November. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling errorfor the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters—is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.
52% Still Have Favorable View of Palin, But Partisan Gap Widens
Tuesday, September 02, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
After a long weekend of Democratic criticism of John McCains choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate, over half of voters (52%) still have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the Alaska governor. Thirty-one percent (31%) view her very favorably.
Voters are evenly divided on whether Palin was the right choice for McCain and whether her selection makes them more or less likely to vote for the Republican candidate. But 69% of GOP voters believe the choice was a good one, while nearly as many Democrats (63%) disagree. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided as well.
Thirty-six percent (36%) have an unfavorable view of Palin, including 16% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.
All these numbers are consistent with a survey Rasmussen Reports did Friday night after McCain introduced Palin at a rally in Dayton, Ohio earlier in the day and ignited a firestorm of media coverage about the largely unknown candidate. She is only the second woman to be on the national ticket of a major U.S. political party, and her selection is clearly intended in part to peel away female Democrats disaffected by the failure of Hillary Clintons candidacy.
But Democrats and unaffiliated voters are clearly more skeptical of Palin’s candidacy now than they were in the earlier survey.
While the initial polling reaction to Palin has been fairly positive, the most significant numbers will be those following the Republican National Convention. Because she is so new to the national scene, Palins speech may be the most important moment at that event. Prior to McCains announcement, 67% said that they didnt know enough about Palin to have an opinion.
“I firmly believe that ALL human decisions are emotional.”
I agree. Decisions are emotional, but analysis can’t be or it’s useless dreck. I try, as much as possible, to keep my emotions off the polling threads and present the facts. I was one of the main culprits on the polling threads in 2006 insisting that the polls were wrong and the Pubbies would keep control of the House and Senate. I knew better. I’m a trained analyst and have had several graduate level probability and statistics courses. I know how to read a poll and judge a good poll from a bad poll (Rasmussen is good and Zogby is bad, BTW, even if you like Zogby’s current results.)
After 2006 I vowed that if I commented on polling threads I would get my emotions the heck out of the way and present the facts to the best of my ability the way I was taught. I take a lot of flak because I don’t tow the “Never fear, Mac’ll win 49 states,” party line, but then nobody forces me to be here.
“Ah, Evangelical that explains it. They shunned Mitt instead of praying for him to turn around ... no further explanation needed in why you support role reversal and pregnant teens when Mom is out working ... .
No need to reply further.”
How very self righteous of you. You judge me without knowing me at all. I voted for Romney. I wanted Romney for Vice President. All my ‘Evangelical’ friends voted for Romney. I will not judge the mother for what the child has done. Do you have children? I guarantee they will make a mistake that will hurt you. It will say a lot about you by how you handle it. Do you plan on disowning them or throwing them away as lost because of a mistake? Sure sounds like you think everyone needs to be perfect. Palin has handled it with love and dignity.
How dare you accuse me of supporting teen pregnancy!! I din’t even address that issue!
How arrogant and disgusting.
The term ‘vetted’ has become this election’s ‘hanging chad’. The media picks these terms and runs them to death. Drives me nuts.
Ok, we’re pretty much on the same page, although I must admit I am one of the “McCain will win 49 states” guys. But that is based on what I expect to happen, as opposed to what has happened so far (with the exception of the Palin choice).
Other than that, I have pretty much never taken polls seriously. Maybe I should more.
How very self righteous of you. You judge me without knowing me at all. I voted for Romney. I wanted Romney for Vice President. All my Evangelical friends voted for Romney. I will not judge the mother for what the child has done. Do you have children? I guarantee they will make a mistake that will hurt you. It will say a lot about you by how you handle it. Do you plan on disowning them or throwing them away as lost because of a mistake? Sure sounds like you think everyone needs to be perfect. Palin has handled it with love and dignity.
Odd how there was NO OUTCRY from the Evangelicals.
Guess you’re the exception ... .
Maybe you are not familiar with Christianity in thei heat of your self righteousness? The “good news” is that all are without sin however there are better examples out there ans this is NOT a good example.
How dare you accuse me of supporting teen pregnancy!! I dint even address that issue!
I didn’t accuse YOU of that. You sound paranoid.
How arrogant and disgusting.
No, that is YOU.
“Rasmussen plugs in a seven- to nine-point advantage...”
That’s not an “advantage,” that’s an accurate reflection of the electorate in 2008. Rasmussen polls to arrive at that number, he just doesn’t make it up.
In Oct 2004, the month before the Bush-Kerry election, Rasmussen used this formula for polling: Republican: 37.2% Democrat 38.7%, Unaffiliated 24.1%. Consequently, Rasmussen was able to achieve a remarkable accuracy on the final stats—about a half percent off.
For September 2008, the Rasmussen targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated — a 7.6% edge for Democrat participation. We WILL see a change in the polls as we get closer to the election, of this there is no doubt.
“For September 2008, the Rasmussen targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated a 7.6% edge for Democrat participation. We WILL see a change in the polls as we get closer to the election, of this there is no doubt.”
Rasmussen’s targets change based on the electorate at the time. He’s been tracking the electorate for years, and there were many more self-identified Republicans in 2004 than there are now. The Pubbies have no one but themselves to blame for that, for not living up to their conservative promises. Their numbers tanked with the amnesty proposal in ‘05 (gee, thanks McCain) and have never recovered.
This is BHO’s convention bump, so the polls will of course tighten. I’ve been saying for months that this election was going to be very, very close. I stand by that.
The statistics will show that on Election Day, equal amounts of Democrats and Republicans will vote; so it has been and so it will be.
That fact is not represented, so far, in apportionments shown by the polls.
Even Susan Estrich estimated yesterday that 6 million of the 18 million Hillary voters will switch to the Republicans, and she is a Dem true believer.
“The statistics will show...”
Since I don’t have your crystal ball, I’ll just have to wait and see. I deal in facts, not suppositions.
You answered your own question.
Some people are here to tell us the bad news and nothing but the bad news.
When in doubt, check the posting history.
Statistics that we know:
From cnn.com : Voting participation in the 2004 election: 37% Republican, 37% Democrat, 26% “Independent”. Popular vote, Bush 52 million to Kerry 49 million. Electoral College 286 to 252. “Independents” went 49-48% for Kerry.
From the Roper Center: Voting participation in the 2000 election: 35% Republican, 39% Democrat, 26% “Independent”. Popular vote, Bush 50.5 million to Gore 51 million.
Electoral College 271 to 266. “Independents” went 48-46% for Bush.
Comment: In 2000, even though Independents split their votes, and even though Dems had +4% more participation in the voting than Republicans, Bush got about as many votes as Gore, not to mention carrying the day in the Electoral College.
To add to that, in 2004, even though Independents split their vote, and even though Repubs had just equal participation in voting to the Dems, the Republican Bush received 3 million more votes than Kerry, and won a small but still comfortable victory in the Electoral College (Ohio was just not that close, with Bush winning by 120,000 votes out of 5 million, i.e., 2%.)
Bottom line: With even voting participation by the parties, or even with a small edge (e.g., +4%) by Democrats, the GOP can still achieve victory. Add to that a significant swing by Women over to the GOP, and you have a formula for certain victory.
Recently? Try 1986.
“With even voting participation by the parties, or even with a small edge (e.g., +4%) by Democrats, the GOP can still achieve victory.”
Yes, they can, although the Dem edge is about 7.6 points right now. That has to change.
“Add to that a significant swing by Women over to the GOP, and you have a formula for certain victory.”
Yes, if that happens, it’s game over for the Dems. I’ve already posted that above. The soccer moms are the very women the Palin pick was designed to pull. We don’t know yet if it will work.
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