Making Putin Pay [WSJ OpEd]

Wall Street Journal ^ | 16 August 2008 | Wall Street Journal

[COBOL2Java]

Vladimir Putin proved last weekend that Russia's army can push over Georgia's army. In the past 48 hours, the West has begun to push back. If its leaders stay the course, they may yet turn Mr. Putin's meager military success into a significant political defeat.

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Both Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates are specialists in the Soviet era and are acutely aware of the price paid in human terms to bring the Soviet Union to dissolution in 1991. It must discomfit them to see that achievement threaten to unravel, especially after having invested so much in good relations with Mr. Putin. So it is reassuring to hear Mr. Gates say the Russians run the risk of damaging relations with the West "for years to come." This isn't just some point of disagreement. The Americans and their allies must continue to make Mr. Putin pay a political penalty for Georgia.

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Snip

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Western authorities should also explore the vulnerability of Russian assets abroad. At the least, they can make life difficult for the holders of those assets. Post-Soviet Russia allowed the emergence of businessmen and entrepreneurs who indeed wish to function as normal participants in world commerce. Their number, however, assuredly includes the lucky billionaires under Mr. Putin's protection. All of them want to benefit from the West's rules. That privilege should be restricted so long as Mr. Putin breaks the rules.

[Arkinsaw]

Cool, let's imagine also Russia, cutting the supplies of the natural gas to all of Europe in return, with the G-7 reduced to G-0 in no time. No gas-supply Marchall's plan this time.

So, forget it. The Pandora's box had been opened with NATO-US military follies in Kosovo, enthusiastically aided by the european socialist apparatchiks. One eats, what one cooked, they say.

Let's see how things go in Russia when it's cuts off natural gas sales for political reasons.

Russia's resurgence is specifically because of the level of integration with the West that it has achieved so far. If that level of integration collapses then the "resurgence" will collapse with it.....and those KGB billionaire thugs will find themselves very unpopular again very quickly.

The Chinese government has managed to find a way to suck off the capitalist tit while still being brutes at home. The Russians seem to think they can suck off the capitalist tit while being brutes internationally. That is a far more unlikely combination than China's.

[AmericaUnite]

I never buy Luke Oil.

[Dick Bachert]

George, GEORGE – you really should have known the ONLY thing you can trust the communists to be is COMMUNISTS!

[COBOL2Java]

The editorial alluded to that very thing:

In the world of global commerce, reputation matters. China has calculated that its own ambivalent reputation can only gain from staging the Olympic extravaganza. The glow of the Games is money in the bank. By contrast, the Putin government has embarked on a strategy that seems to believe its power grows in sync with its reputation as an international pariah, an outsider state.

[Starboard]

President was a lame duck and coincidentally had the Olympics as a distraction.

Putin is also keely aware of the war fatigue taking hold in this country. I think we have to grudgingly concede that his calculations and chess move were effective in this instance and be better prepared for the next. Given what you say in your post, it might not be that far away.

[Larry381]

Strange people the Russians. For 70 years they watched passively as their liberty was stolen from them and millions of their fellow citizens were butchered like cattle while they did nothing. You would think that a people with that history would think twice about letting a gangster like Putin govern them, but they don't

[Nowhere Man]

Let's see how things go in Russia when it's cuts off natural gas sales for political reasons.

Russia's resurgence is specifically because of the level of integration with the West that it has achieved so far. If that level of integration collapses then the "resurgence" will collapse with it.....and those KGB billionaire thugs will find themselves very unpopular again very quickly.

The Chinese government has managed to find a way to suck off the capitalist tit while still being brutes at home. The Russians seem to think they can suck off the capitalist tit while being brutes internationally. That is a far more unlikely combination than China's.

I think Russia/USSR would end up cutting their nose off to spite their face, yes they can cut off energy to Europe but unless they find another buyer, they will return to a poor country with nukes One thing about Red China, they seemed to have achieved what Lenin hoped to do with the New Economic Program in the 1920's or what Gorbachev tried to do in the 1980's. How long they can keep it up, I don't know.

[cricket]

Sounds like a good response to me. Don't like the 'hesitation' I hear, when Georgia's entry into NATO is 'hedged' in a response as to 'when/how long. . .'. And as well, the same 'heavy breathing' that adds space to the strained answers to question of 'what are best options here for responding to Russia' that we have thus far, heard from too many speaking on behalf of committed Democracies.

And so far, on America's behalf; we have the 'sound of fury'. . .and hoping there are fever-pitch efforts going on; to back it up.

[Nowhere Man]

Strange people the Russians. For 70 years they watched passively as their liberty was stolen from them and millions of their fellow citizens were butchered like cattle while they did nothing. You would think that a people with that history would think twice about letting a gangster like Putin govern them, but they don't

Well, he did put an end, ir at least a huge dent, in the Russian Mafia. He ran on a law and order platform, seeing that, I can believe hoe they put him into office. The thing is, they are either so stupid or desperate, they got rid of one set of thugs for another, and these thugs are ten times worse.

[Gorzaloon]

comrade gorbachev admitted, russia missed the information revolution.

Not from the hammering on my firewall, they didn't. And where do many of the stolen Credit Card accounts end up? They are doing fine.

[Arkinsaw]

I think Russia/USSR would end up cutting their nose off to spite their face, yes they can cut off energy to Europe but unless they find another buyer, they will return to a poor country with nukes One thing about Red China, they seemed to have achieved what Lenin hoped to do with the New Economic Program in the 1920's or what Gorbachev tried to do in the 1980's. How long they can keep it up, I don't know.

The Chinese are deep strategic thinkers. I am not so sure we can say the same for the Russians. Maybe deep tactical thinkers, but not really strategic.

Yes, they pulled off a surprise here. But their success in it threatens their overall position.

They may still come out okay if they are able to lull the West back to sleep. And they have a good chance of luring western Europe back to sleep....but not eastern Europe.

I have always thought that Russia's best strategic move would be to fully integrate with the West and become a leader of the West as a frontline state. They have a terrible demographic problem along with growing populations of unfriendlies to the south...plus resource hungry China. I am not sure they can defend that massive landmass with their future population for the long run. In 100 years they will be overrun by their growing southern neighbors. They only way to stop that would have been to integrate fully with the west.

They ally with the Muslims to the south against the West because they sense a loss of power from Soviet days. But they have made a short term deal with the devil that will ultimately kill them. Makes no real long-term sense.

[eleni121]

If it is not a restoration of their sovereignty; their Democracy. . .their Country;

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Democracy? not sure if it is really. Sashkavili reminds us of Mussolini more or less.

Restoration of only what is theirs ..not what they want to keep as a gift from fellow Georgian Papa Joe Stalin.

South Ossetians do NOT want be a gift to Georgia any more.

[the invisib1e hand]

I am beside myself at the volume of cynical, even paranoid defeatist rants that an editorial like this can attract.

How is it that a site that is dedicated to conservatism draws so many defeatists? Defeatism is not conservatism -- in fact, it is the biggest hammer in the toolbox of the left, of statists, of dictators.

[Sal]

The Pandora's box had been opened with NATO-US military follies in Kosovo...

Yes, we can thank the Clintons for that evil deed. It has hurt us badly and will continue to do so in the future. It pretty much picked up where the evil Jimmy Carter left off and we're still paying for his malevolent works.

I believe both of them did it on purpose with malice aforethought. OTOH I also believe we can overcome the effects of their efforts though we are feeling the strain and pain of doing so right now.

[Words]

And Europe responds with a crash program to build lots of nuke plants, and to use nuke electric for heating and stoves instead of gas

Which is utopian, of course, because it will be debated to death by safety and green issues.

If depending on Russia to be a reliable supplier is a recipe for disaster, then Europe needs to immediately get started on replacing the supplier

Good luck to them.

[Sal]

Arkinsaw, GREAT posts at #21 and #31! IMO in this foolish invasion they have captured the equivalent of 5 pawns and a knight and lost their queen, a bishop and a castle.

[Sal]

Which is utopian, of course, because it will be debated to death by safety and green issues.

If we're very fortunate, we may see the demise of the destructive green movement. (Note I did NOT say conservationism--you know like hunters practice.)

[Words]

Let's see how things go in Russia when it's cuts off natural gas sales for political reasons.

So, making eurothreats to Russia is cool, getting ones in return - not cool. Interesting.

Russia's resurgence is specifically because of the level of integration with the West that it has achieved so far. If that level of integration collapses then the "resurgence" will collapse with it.....and those KGB billionaire thugs will find themselves very unpopular again very quickly.

Won't happen.

The Chinese government has managed to find a way to suck off the capitalist tit while still being brutes at home. The Russians seem to think they can suck off the capitalist tit while being brutes internationally.

Say, like ... the US in the Balkans?

[Sal]

We have been flooded (but NOT over run) with Vlad trolls, many of whom were apparently put in place some years ago. (That is known because some FReepers traced some of the trolls and found almost no postings over years until now...)

OTOH some of the cynicism is due to the uneveness of response from many of our elected leaders. Sometimes good, occasionally very good, and too often weak.

So far on this incident I'd put us at weak start (too long to respond) with a pretty good verbal response and physical response too. We're in there, the ports and airports have to remain open, Eastern Europe is solidifying with Georgia and USA instead of being intimidated...

[Arkinsaw]

So, making eurothreats to Russia is cool, getting ones in return - not cool. Interesting.

My statement was in regard to the fact that selling goes both ways. Try bullying your customer when they come into your store to buy something. No matter how much they need your product, they will start doing whatever they can to find another store to shop in. Just a capitalist fact...not a threat.

Won't happen.

Not over Georgia. Russia will lose G8 and maybe WTO unless they spend some time pretending to kiss ass. Which they probably will. But continued efforts to reestablish a Soviet style intimidation over Europe will over time erode willingness to invest in Russia or deal with them. That will probably happen also. Russia has not had this economic resurgence in a vacuum.....and will not be able to maintain it when they create a vacuum.

Say, like ... the US in the Balkans?

Clinton is an example of short term thinking. Kosovo was an example of Clintonesque short term thinking. I am not sure its a good idea for Russia to emulate Clintonian strategy as a revenge for Clintonian strategy.

Take me for instance...I fully supported Russia in the efforts against Chechnyan fanatics and was irritated that the West was not more supportive of Russia. Now, after the Georgia episode, I will not be mustering any support for Russia.

For a long time I was on here advocating that Russia should fully integrate into the West and become a Western frontline leader nation. There is much to admire about the Russian people, religion, culture and their geographical position. Unfortunately they were not able to integrate into the West which is a loss for the West and a loss for Russia. They are now going to be sort of hanging out there on their own with a shrinking population and a lot of resource hungry neighbors with growing populations.