How bad do you think it will get?
How bad will it get? Lets just say, “cash is king”, but only in $100,000 FDIC increments per bank.
Many banks are functionally insolvent due to the liquidity crisis and mortgage related losses. People in the know have been screaming this for months, primarily to a blind and distracted populace that hasn’t been hearing the warning siren.
I don’t think anybody can predict how bad this crisis can get. That IndyMac is the 2nd largest bank historically to ever fail, should provide a clue to where this crisis is going.
That Fannie and Freddie are approaching insolvency should provide another clue. Want to see the bond market collapse? Just watch what happens after the government bails out Fannie and Freddie.
Cue Travis McGee’s Von Mises line about the end of a liquidity crisis and the collapse of currency.
I bought the China 25 Ultra Short fund today at 3 pm. (goes opposite of the market). I'm feeling pretty good about it right now.
Almost a complete repeat of the Great Depression. It will become worse as we shake out the excesses of the last 15 years of easy money. Typically, the worst of the financial pain is felt 3 years after market crash (March of 2008). Good news is we have six times the food and much better communications network. We’ll get back on track quickly afterwards but it won’t be pretty.